January 25, 2011

Dynamic Pay

Yesterday the discussions about raising the salaries of players as a percentage of Major League Baseball (MLB) revenue centered around small changes to the collective bargaining agreement (CBA). Today the discussion will go outside the box to consider a way to distribute more money to the players to make up for any shortfall from a fixed percentage of revenue.

For example, the Major League Baseball Players Association (MLBPA) and MLB decide that ballplayers as a group should get 50% of MLB revenue. In 2010, depending on which data for salaries is used, players received between 40 and 43 percent of MLB revenue. I’ll use the lower number for this example, since it’s easy to divide by 10. Under an agreement that guaranteed the players at least 50% of revenue, MLB would have to make up 10%, or $680 million dollars.

Leagues that implement a fixed revenue sharing scheme usually do so by creating salary floors and caps based on previous revenues. So the fixed rate also tries to serve as a way of helping competitive balance. The problem, of course, is that these leagues are always a year off. They are paying players with expected revenue, not actual revenue. I’m sure most years it doesn’t matter much, but there is no reason that players can’t be reward based on the current year’s revenue stream.

Paying players based on the current year’s revenue also allows the league to provide an incentive for better performance. Taking 2010 as an example, I would suggest the $680 million dollars be distributed according to a player’s Wins Above Replacement (WAR). The good people at FanGraphs sent me their 2010 WAR stats compatible with the Day by Day Database, so I was able to do some calculations with the data. What I suggest is that players with a WAR of zero or below get no bonuses. They did nothing to lift the team above replacement level. Players with a positive WAR would get a percentage of the bonus pool equal to the percentage of the total positive WAR produce that year.

Using Evan Longoria as an example, we see that he produced a WAR of 6.934 in 2010. The total positive WAR for 2010 came in at 1206.36, so Evan would get a bonus of $680 million * 6.934/1206.36 or about $3.91 million. Evan earned under $1 million in 2010, so his playing well earned him a 300% raise. Someone like Albert Pujols who signed a long term contract that is way below market value, would earn an extra $4.13 million.

The following table shows the bonuses for each positive WAR player in 2010 based on a $680 million pool. For positions, 10 is DH, 11 is pinch hitter, 12 is starting pitcher, and 13 represents a relief pitcher.

2010 WAR bonuses.
Player Position 2010 WAR Bonus Salary
Josh Hamilton 7 8.039 $4,531,168
Joey Votto 3 7.431 $4,188,813
Albert Pujols 3 7.324 $4,128,426
Ryan Zimmerman 5 7.164 $4,038,238
Adrian Beltre 5 7.072 $3,986,425
Cliff Lee 12 7.070 $3,985,303
Jose Bautista 9 6.939 $3,911,529
Evan Longoria 5 6.934 $3,908,699
Matt Holliday 7 6.890 $3,883,554
Carl Crawford 7 6.860 $3,866,576
Troy Tulowitzki 6 6.439 $3,629,786
Robinson Cano 4 6.373 $3,592,460
Justin Verlander 12 6.318 $3,561,051
Felix Hernandez 12 6.235 $3,514,323
Miguel Cabrera 3 6.165 $3,475,282
Rickie Weeks 4 6.075 $3,424,439
Francisco Liriano 12 6.008 $3,386,802
Andres Torres 8 5.987 $3,374,880
Kelly Johnson 4 5.971 $3,365,529
Carlos Gonzalez 8 5.952 $3,354,982
Jered Weaver 12 5.870 $3,308,507
Aubrey Huff 3 5.711 $3,219,131
Jon Lester 12 5.645 $3,181,832
Adam Wainwright 12 5.632 $3,174,905
Shin-Soo Choo 9 5.565 $3,137,133
Roy Halladay 12 5.470 $3,083,245
Brett Gardner 7 5.399 $3,043,235
Brian McCann 2 5.324 $3,001,213
Jay Bruce 9 5.266 $2,968,452
Adrian Gonzalez 3 5.264 $2,967,342
Justin Morneau 3 5.264 $2,967,240
Zack Greinke 12 5.240 $2,953,611
Josh Johnson 12 5.216 $2,940,274
Chase Utley 4 5.152 $2,904,001
Yovani Gallardo 12 5.134 $2,893,812
Stephen Drew 6 5.117 $2,884,515
Dan Uggla 4 5.111 $2,880,688
Joe Mauer 2 5.108 $2,879,245
CC Sabathia 12 5.103 $2,876,573
Nelson Cruz 9 5.102 $2,875,885
Scott Rolen 5 5.036 $2,838,880
Ubaldo Jimenez 12 4.993 $2,814,428
Jayson Werth 9 4.988 $2,811,722
Jason Heyward 9 4.970 $2,801,311
Dan Haren 12 4.955 $2,792,807
Angel Pagan 8 4.907 $2,765,698
Daric Barton 3 4.883 $2,752,243
Ichiro Suzuki 9 4.757 $2,681,670
Chase Headley 5 4.593 $2,588,900
C.J. Wilson 12 4.412 $2,487,219
Colby Lewis 12 4.391 $2,475,105
Hanley Ramirez 6 4.356 $2,455,613
Chris Young 8 4.346 $2,449,943
John Danks 12 4.344 $2,448,737
Gavin Floyd 12 4.338 $2,445,416
David Price 12 4.295 $2,421,049
Paul Konerko 3 4.196 $2,365,211
Michael Bourn 8 4.191 $2,362,579
Kevin Youkilis 3 4.189 $2,361,288
Ryan Braun 7 4.150 $2,339,411
Carlos Ruiz 2 4.135 $2,331,069
Marlon Byrd 8 4.135 $2,330,900
Nick Swisher 9 4.102 $2,312,439
Rafael Furcal 6 4.083 $2,301,329
Prince Fielder 3 4.076 $2,297,626
David Wright 5 4.052 $2,284,064
Brandon Phillips 4 4.041 $2,278,027
Ricky Romero 12 4.027 $2,269,904
Tim Lincecum 12 4.008 $2,259,195
Victor Martinez 2 3.990 $2,249,015
John Lackey 12 3.983 $2,245,328
Vernon Wells 8 3.968 $2,236,433
Chad Billingsley 12 3.950 $2,226,795
Buster Posey 2 3.938 $2,219,546
Adam Dunn 3 3.916 $2,207,567
Martin Prado 4 3.895 $2,195,245
Alex Rodriguez 5 3.858 $2,174,936
Edwin Jackson 12 3.814 $2,150,061
Mark Buehrle 12 3.793 $2,137,801
Alexei Ramirez 6 3.790 $2,136,302
Roy Oswalt 12 3.768 $2,123,871
Austin Jackson 8 3.750 $2,113,867
Placido Polanco 5 3.705 $2,088,564
Alex Rios 8 3.700 $2,085,588
Max Scherzer 12 3.698 $2,084,319
Clay Buchholz 12 3.687 $2,078,530
Brandon Morrow 12 3.658 $2,061,733
Cliff Pennington 6 3.655 $2,060,008
Jim Thome 10 3.639 $2,051,327
Shane Victorino 8 3.588 $2,022,247
Curtis Granderson 8 3.568 $2,011,323
Casey McGehee 5 3.531 $1,990,191
Colby Rasmus 8 3.531 $1,990,191
Shaun Marcum 12 3.502 $1,974,075
Mark Teixeira 3 3.500 $1,973,016
Geovany Soto 2 3.486 $1,965,136
Torii Hunter 8 3.460 $1,950,238
Anibal Sanchez 12 3.456 $1,948,087
Billy Butler 3 3.449 $1,943,992
Clayton Kershaw 12 3.433 $1,935,159
Alex Gonzalez 6 3.423 $1,929,190
B.J. Upton 8 3.394 $1,913,289
Corey Hart 9 3.389 $1,910,498
Ike Davis 3 3.387 $1,909,033
Brett Myers 12 3.367 $1,898,137
Mat Latos 12 3.344 $1,885,122
Dustin Pedroia 4 3.325 $1,874,496
Andrew McCutchen 8 3.320 $1,871,210
David Ortiz 10 3.292 $1,855,506
Coco Crisp 8 3.279 $1,848,116
Thomas Hanson 12 3.253 $1,833,410
Miguel Olivo 2 3.237 $1,824,357
Mark Ellis 4 3.223 $1,816,494
Juan Uribe 6 3.220 $1,815,169
Drew Stubbs 8 3.207 $1,807,954
Gio Gonzalez 12 3.187 $1,796,162
Ian Kinsler 4 3.184 $1,794,505
Carl Pavano 12 3.159 $1,780,915
Justin Upton 9 3.145 $1,772,617
Hunter Pence 9 3.143 $1,771,896
Orlando Hudson 4 3.134 $1,766,490
Luke Scott 10 3.116 $1,756,553
Ben Zobrist 9 3.105 $1,750,206
Johan Santana 12 3.096 $1,745,413
Carlos Marmol 13 3.077 $1,734,631
Wandy Rodriguez 12 3.052 $1,720,339
Jhoulys Chacin 12 3.021 $1,702,738
Dallas Braden 12 3.016 $1,700,072
Hiroki Kuroda 12 2.975 $1,676,708
Cole Hamels 12 2.958 $1,667,530
Douglas Fister 12 2.935 $1,654,364
Alfonso Soriano 7 2.925 $1,648,513
Denard Span 8 2.916 $1,643,597
Kevin Kouzmanoff 5 2.906 $1,637,904
Matt Cain 12 2.903 $1,636,630
John Buck 2 2.864 $1,614,388
Nick Markakis 9 2.842 $1,601,829
Casey Blake 5 2.830 $1,595,256
R.A. Dickey 12 2.814 $1,586,427
Jason Hammel 12 2.784 $1,569,473
Jose Reyes 6 2.774 $1,563,668
Randy Wells 12 2.763 $1,557,316
Jim Edmonds 8 2.760 $1,555,675
Josh Willingham 7 2.749 $1,549,401
Fausto Carmona 12 2.748 $1,549,221
Mike C Stanton 9 2.747 $1,548,607
Jaime Garcia 12 2.739 $1,543,656
Chris Carpenter 12 2.731 $1,539,610
Brian Matusz 12 2.724 $1,535,197
Mike Napoli 3 2.720 $1,533,150
Michael Young 5 2.704 $1,523,963
Daniel Valencia 5 2.691 $1,516,979
Justin Masterson 12 2.688 $1,515,141
Chipper Jones 5 2.686 $1,514,047
Brian Wilson 13 2.676 $1,508,580
Omar Infante 4 2.662 $1,500,288
Freddy Sanchez 4 2.660 $1,499,578
Yadier Molina 2 2.641 $1,488,812
Ramon Hernandez 2 2.640 $1,488,056
Jason Vargas 12 2.608 $1,470,041
Stephen Strasburg 12 2.605 $1,468,593
J.D. Drew 9 2.604 $1,467,961
Vladimir Guerrero 10 2.585 $1,457,381
David DeJesus 9 2.580 $1,454,315
Brett Anderson 12 2.579 $1,453,926
Scott Baker 12 2.546 $1,435,262
John Jaso 2 2.539 $1,431,317
Magglio Ordonez 9 2.535 $1,428,944
Will Venable 9 2.522 $1,421,757
Ervin Santana 12 2.518 $1,419,276
Pat Burrell 7 2.504 $1,411,458
Joel Pineiro 12 2.502 $1,410,167
Brett Aarion Cecil 12 2.497 $1,407,394
Daisuke Matsuzaka 12 2.491 $1,404,057
Ryan Dempster 12 2.489 $1,402,747
Ricky Nolasco 12 2.466 $1,390,106
Derek Jeter 6 2.455 $1,383,646
Jorge Posada 2 2.431 $1,370,332
Mark Reynolds 5 2.412 $1,359,414
Jamey Carroll 6 2.407 $1,356,832
Jeff Keppinger 4 2.406 $1,356,116
Yorvit Torrealba 2 2.394 $1,349,369
Jack Cust 10 2.392 $1,348,219
J.J. Hardy 6 2.387 $1,345,576
Gaby Sanchez 3 2.383 $1,343,507
Heath Bell 13 2.379 $1,341,032
Phil Hughes 12 2.368 $1,334,731
Jeremy Guthrie 12 2.340 $1,318,925
Derek Lowe 12 2.337 $1,317,124
Livan Hernandez 12 2.329 $1,312,928
Franklin Gutierrez 8 2.306 $1,300,048
Jimmy Rollins 6 2.300 $1,296,378
Andy Pettitte 12 2.293 $1,292,483
Adam Jones 8 2.292 $1,292,026
Matt Wieters 2 2.278 $1,284,112
Tom Gorzelanny 12 2.261 $1,274,586
Daniel Hudson 12 2.256 $1,271,497
Jake Westbrook 12 2.255 $1,271,125
Kevin Slowey 12 2.249 $1,267,439
Juan Pierre 7 2.240 $1,262,518
Sean Marshall 13 2.239 $1,262,039
Matt Belisle 13 2.233 $1,258,600
Travis Wood 12 2.230 $1,256,797
Matt Thornton 13 2.212 $1,246,650
Bobby Abreu 9 2.204 $1,242,474
Andre Ethier 9 2.194 $1,236,927
Cody Ross 8 2.192 $1,235,405
Ryan Hanigan 2 2.189 $1,233,945
Trevor John Cahill 12 2.180 $1,228,940
Ian Kennedy 12 2.178 $1,227,899
Hong-Chih Kuo 13 2.178 $1,227,609
James Shields 12 2.174 $1,225,343
Yunel Escobar 6 2.164 $1,220,022
Billy Wagner 13 2.159 $1,216,725
Carlos Zambrano 12 2.153 $1,213,407
Marco Scutaro 6 2.146 $1,209,442
Carlos Silva 12 2.141 $1,206,984
Brandon Inge 5 2.132 $1,201,973
Ryan Raburn 7 2.122 $1,196,235
Lance Berkman 3 2.116 $1,192,870
Ryan Ludwick 9 2.104 $1,186,213
Adam LaRoche 3 2.095 $1,180,836
Tim Hudson 12 2.090 $1,177,968
Russell Martin 2 2.079 $1,171,631
Joakim Soria 13 2.063 $1,162,832
Delmon Young 7 2.062 $1,162,437
David Murphy 7 2.044 $1,152,381
Carlos Santana 2 2.028 $1,143,328
John Axford 13 2.015 $1,136,091
Derrek Lee 3 2.009 $1,132,585
Ramon Santiago 6 2.002 $1,128,729
Ryan Howard 3 1.995 $1,124,761
David Eckstein 4 1.984 $1,118,138
Russell Branyan 10 1.984 $1,118,132
Kyle Davies 12 1.983 $1,118,048
Madison Bumgarner 12 1.975 $1,113,256
Mike Pelfrey 12 1.966 $1,108,356
Starlin Castro 6 1.964 $1,106,932
Jose Tabata 7 1.959 $1,104,412
Homer Bailey 12 1.948 $1,098,093
Hideki Matsui 10 1.948 $1,097,947
Rick Porcello 12 1.936 $1,091,498
Pablo Sandoval 5 1.934 $1,090,191
Jeff Francis 12 1.933 $1,089,356
Miguel Montero 2 1.926 $1,085,760
Neil Walker 4 1.915 $1,079,216
Matt Joyce 9 1.909 $1,076,335
Johnny Cueto 12 1.905 $1,074,065
Jonathan Sanchez 12 1.905 $1,073,949
Sean Rodriguez 4 1.905 $1,073,838
Jerry Hairston 6 1.900 $1,071,009
Johnny Damon 10 1.884 $1,061,691
Rafael Betancourt 13 1.877 $1,058,089
Travis Hafner 10 1.868 $1,052,740
Andruw Jones 9 1.840 $1,037,070
Chris Denorfia 8 1.838 $1,035,892
Edwin Encarnacion 5 1.830 $1,031,315
Jed Lowrie 4 1.801 $1,015,238
Matt Garza 12 1.793 $1,010,554
Jake Peavy 12 1.792 $1,010,357
Joe Saunders 12 1.781 $1,003,959
Jonathon Niese 12 1.774 $1,000,068
Raul Ibanez 7 1.754 $988,808
A.J. Pierzynski 2 1.752 $987,511
Neftali Feliz 13 1.747 $984,676
Luke Hochevar 12 1.746 $984,022
Mike Adams 13 1.745 $983,887
Jorge de la Rosa 12 1.745 $983,684
Felipe Paulino 12 1.736 $978,605
Jonathan Venters 13 1.719 $968,938
Dexter Fowler 8 1.710 $963,904
Seth Smith 7 1.703 $960,184
Tony Gwynn 8 1.703 $959,733
James McDonald 12 1.693 $954,147
Tyler Colvin 9 1.685 $950,015
Mariano Rivera 13 1.681 $947,439
Brian Duensing 13 1.657 $933,793
Peter Bourjos 8 1.653 $931,955
Chris Narveson 12 1.653 $931,662
Hisanori Takahashi 13 1.644 $926,566
Clayton Richard 12 1.632 $919,672
Manny Ramirez 7 1.629 $918,421
Bud Norris 12 1.619 $912,418
David Ross 2 1.615 $910,299
Kurt Suzuki 2 1.609 $907,182
Rafael Soriano 13 1.605 $904,561
Adam Rosales 4 1.604 $904,143
Pedro Alvarez 5 1.575 $887,746
Ian Stewart 5 1.568 $883,812
Howie Kendrick 4 1.567 $883,068
Christopher Johnson 5 1.560 $879,505
Mike Aviles 4 1.549 $873,271
Bobby Jenks 13 1.536 $865,661
Darren Oliver 13 1.533 $864,365
Joaquin Benoit 13 1.525 $859,709
Clay Hensley 13 1.524 $859,077
Nick Hundley 2 1.521 $857,302
Brian Roberts 4 1.518 $855,504
Lyle Overbay 3 1.515 $853,773
Austin Kearns 7 1.514 $853,373
David Freese 5 1.512 $852,110
Aaron Cook 12 1.504 $847,595
Elvis Andrus 6 1.497 $843,700
J.J. Putz 13 1.495 $842,900
Laynce Nix 7 1.482 $835,454
Daniel Bard 13 1.480 $834,231
Travis Snider 7 1.463 $824,586
Leo Nunez 13 1.457 $821,232
Jason Repko 9 1.457 $821,024
Kosuke Fukudome 9 1.456 $820,894
Tyler Clippard 13 1.439 $811,063
Joel Hanrahan 13 1.430 $806,317
Jhonny Peralta 5 1.425 $803,251
Kris Medlen 13 1.403 $791,109
Esmil Rogers 13 1.399 $788,832
Jason Bay 7 1.399 $788,815
Mitch Talbot 12 1.398 $787,998
Sean Burnett 13 1.395 $786,132
Nick Punto 5 1.392 $784,785
Joshua Thole 2 1.387 $781,854
Joba Chamberlain 13 1.386 $781,453
Craig Stammen 12 1.383 $779,746
Kendry Morales 3 1.374 $774,357
Josh Beckett 12 1.372 $773,618
Koji Uehara 13 1.371 $772,891
Mike Morse 9 1.367 $770,715
Francisco J Rodriguez 13 1.367 $770,524
Alberto Callaspo 5 1.365 $769,509
Orlando Cabrera 6 1.349 $760,507
Freddy Garcia 12 1.338 $754,420
Julio Borbon 8 1.336 $752,813
Miguel Tejada 5 1.325 $746,832
Bruce Chen 12 1.322 $745,102
Wilton Lopez 13 1.317 $742,363
Luke Gregerson 13 1.313 $739,888
Edgar Renteria 6 1.305 $735,474
Chris Heisey 9 1.296 $730,531
A.J. Burnett 12 1.291 $727,876
Tim Wakefield 12 1.286 $725,125
Kevin Millwood 12 1.280 $721,704
Don Kelly 7 1.279 $720,785
Tim Stauffer 13 1.278 $720,430
Ryan Madson 13 1.271 $716,315
Wilson Betemit 5 1.263 $711,653
Trevor Bell 13 1.256 $707,877
Barry Zito 12 1.244 $701,462
Rod Barajas 2 1.236 $696,536
Alejandro Sanabia 12 1.235 $696,406
Matt Capps 13 1.235 $696,366
Jair Jurrjens 12 1.232 $694,580
Takashi Saito 13 1.226 $690,809
Sergio Romo 13 1.222 $688,746
Scott Downs 13 1.218 $686,728
Jeff Niemann 12 1.214 $684,422
Ted Lilly 12 1.209 $681,722
Lorenzo Cain 8 1.189 $670,240
John Lannan 12 1.183 $666,757
Reid Brignac 4 1.179 $664,851
Grant Balfour 13 1.165 $656,599
Jonathan Papelbon 13 1.161 $654,553
Jonathan Broxton 13 1.161 $654,215
Rajai Davis 8 1.155 $650,928
Aaron Hill 4 1.145 $645,607
Kevin Jepsen 13 1.139 $642,135
Ramon Castro 2 1.137 $640,974
Jeff Baker 5 1.135 $639,942
Jon Rauch 13 1.135 $639,621
Joe Thatcher 13 1.134 $639,131
Carlos Gomez 8 1.124 $633,387
Ian Desmond 6 1.121 $631,656
Ronny Paulino 2 1.109 $625,377
Francisco Cervelli 2 1.092 $615,648
Paul Maholm 12 1.086 $612,277
Brad Penny 12 1.083 $610,344
Logan Morrison 7 1.080 $608,557
Jonathan Jay 9 1.070 $603,179
Gerardo Enrique Parra 7 1.068 $602,063
Jose Molina 2 1.067 $601,545
Jason Michaels 7 1.066 $600,812
Alexi Casilla 6 1.065 $600,248
Gregor Blanco 8 1.063 $599,391
Joe Blanton 12 1.063 $599,221
James Loney 3 1.062 $598,557
Mike Leake 12 1.054 $594,228
Phil Coke 13 1.050 $592,098
Chris Snyder 2 1.050 $592,036
Scott Feldman 12 1.049 $591,258
Nick Masset 13 1.044 $588,456
Carlos Pena 3 1.037 $584,448
Andrew Bailey 13 1.028 $579,443
Joel Zumaya 13 1.027 $579,082
Casper Charles Wells 9 1.022 $575,920
Ronny Cedeno 6 1.019 $574,657
Brandon Lyon 13 1.018 $573,953
Maicer Izturis 5 1.017 $573,192
Adam Kennedy 4 1.010 $569,037
Brendan Ryan 6 1.003 $565,605
Kyle Farnsworth 13 0.991 $558,872
Frank Francisco 13 0.987 $556,217
Sergio Santos 13 0.970 $546,983
Ivan Rodriguez 2 0.970 $546,712
Paul Janish 6 0.964 $543,447
Bronson Arroyo 12 0.962 $542,188
Vicente Padilla 12 0.953 $537,460
Bill Hall 7 0.953 $537,065
Eric Hinske 7 0.953 $536,946
Jeremy Bonderman 12 0.950 $535,265
Shelley Duncan 7 0.947 $533,644
Aaron Harang 12 0.942 $530,884
Arthur Rhodes 13 0.936 $527,873
Fred Lewis 7 0.931 $524,712
Huston Street 13 0.931 $524,686
Aramis Ramirez 5 0.929 $523,378
Edinson Volquez 12 0.927 $522,381
Carlos Beltran 8 0.924 $520,690
Gordon Beckham 4 0.917 $517,009
Alex Avila 2 0.917 $516,931
Jose Guillen 10 0.916 $516,165
Miguel Cairo 5 0.903 $509,278
Erick Aybar 6 0.901 $508,089
Jason Frasor 13 0.891 $502,240
Darren O’Day 13 0.889 $501,219
Wilson Valdez 6 0.888 $500,802
Santiago Casilla 13 0.883 $497,916
Chris Perez 13 0.875 $493,355
Nyjer Morgan 8 0.875 $493,129
Jonathan Lucroy 2 0.871 $491,181
Ross Ohlendorf 12 0.868 $488,991
William Daniel Rhymes 4 0.862 $485,928
Corey Patterson 7 0.860 $484,903
Jesse Crain 13 0.845 $476,045
Evan Meek 13 0.839 $473,059
Emilio Bonifacio 8 0.839 $472,884
Darnell McDonald 8 0.833 $469,564
Kenley Jansen 13 0.831 $468,667
Blake DeWitt 4 0.828 $466,693
Pedro Feliciano 13 0.810 $456,758
Jason Berken 13 0.808 $455,662
Joe Inglett 9 0.808 $455,390
Ryan Doumit 2 0.806 $454,161
J.A. Happ 12 0.804 $453,445
John Ely 12 0.804 $453,264
Derek L. Holland 12 0.802 $452,108
Kevin Gregg 13 0.802 $451,850
Kenshin Kawakami 12 0.797 $449,433
Robinson Tejeda 13 0.795 $448,390
Christopher Coghlan 7 0.793 $446,845
Ryan Sweeney 9 0.793 $446,782
Wade Davis 12 0.787 $443,861
Ryan Webb 13 0.772 $434,996
Jacob Arrieta 12 0.771 $434,774
Jose Contreras 13 0.768 $433,023
Chris Volstad 12 0.764 $430,818
Alexei Ogando 13 0.763 $430,131
Mitch Maier 8 0.756 $426,180
Rick Ankiel 8 0.741 $417,867
Nelson Figueroa 13 0.741 $417,846
Bobby Parnell 13 0.741 $417,629
Aaron Cunningham 7 0.738 $415,815
Drew Storen 13 0.737 $415,492
Tommy Hunter 12 0.735 $414,241
David Robertson 13 0.719 $405,476
Brian Schneider 2 0.713 $401,647
Matt Stairs 7 0.705 $397,119
Mike Gonzalez 13 0.697 $393,095
Joel Peralta 13 0.696 $392,529
Jason Bartlett 6 0.695 $391,864
Lastings Milledge 7 0.694 $391,177
Jose Lopez 5 0.692 $390,272
Mitchell Moreland 3 0.690 $388,877
John McDonald 4 0.687 $387,041
Jonathan Herrera 4 0.680 $383,458
Eli Whiteside 2 0.673 $379,609
Kyle Lohse 12 0.672 $378,605
Ryan Langerhans 7 0.671 $378,083
Brooks Conrad 5 0.669 $377,359
Jon Garland 12 0.667 $376,113
Javier Lopez 13 0.667 $375,960
Casey Coleman 12 0.666 $375,521
A.J. Ellis 2 0.663 $373,906
Ben Francisco 7 0.656 $370,051
Jason Varitek 2 0.652 $367,719
Gregg Zaun 2 0.650 $366,551
George Kottaras 2 0.646 $364,001
Jason Kendall 2 0.641 $361,572
Jason Motte 13 0.640 $360,616
Scott Olsen 12 0.640 $360,497
Chris Sale 13 0.639 $360,195
Jarrod Dyson 8 0.639 $360,095
Jim Johnson 13 0.632 $356,017
Craig Counsell 6 0.629 $354,509
Luis Castillo 4 0.627 $353,381
Zach Braddock 13 0.627 $353,184
Alcides Escobar 6 0.626 $352,742
Ben Sheets 12 0.617 $347,570
Matt Diaz 7 0.611 $344,164
Bradley Bergesen 12 0.605 $341,208
Mike Minor 12 0.605 $341,017
Chone Figgins 4 0.605 $340,779
Ross Gload 3 0.595 $335,135
David J Hernandez 13 0.594 $334,641
Ryan Kalish 8 0.579 $326,558
Marcus Thames 10 0.571 $322,118
Carlos Carrasco 12 0.571 $321,656
Jose Valverde 13 0.570 $321,370
Yuniesky Betancourt 6 0.570 $321,122
Brennan Boesch 9 0.569 $320,613
Mike Sweeney 10 0.567 $319,543
Pat Misch 12 0.565 $318,207
Joshua Tomlin 12 0.560 $315,422
Reed Johnson 7 0.557 $313,985
Francisco Cordero 13 0.551 $310,306
Marc Rzepczynski 12 0.546 $307,866
Chris Iannetta 2 0.542 $305,571
Aaron Laffey 13 0.540 $304,530
Shawn Hill 12 0.537 $302,612
Craig Kimbrel 13 0.537 $302,550
Roger Bernadina 9 0.536 $302,174
Nate Schierholtz 9 0.535 $301,722
Eric O’Flaherty 13 0.532 $300,128
Aaron Rowand 8 0.532 $300,046
Armando Galarraga 12 0.530 $298,537
Burke Badenhop 13 0.527 $297,189
Carlos Guillen 4 0.526 $296,326
Randy Wolf 12 0.520 $293,033
Melvin Mora 5 0.515 $290,126
Nate Robertson 12 0.513 $289,238
D.J. Carrasco 13 0.510 $287,232
Juan Rivera 7 0.505 $284,661
Jeremy R Hellickson 13 0.500 $281,938
Brad Hawpe 9 0.496 $279,612
Humberto Quintero 2 0.488 $275,084
Robert Andino 4 0.486 $274,219
Chris Capuano 13 0.477 $268,593
Jeff Francoeur 9 0.474 $267,056
Matt Tolbert 4 0.472 $265,888
Troy Glaus 3 0.472 $265,872
Randy Choate 13 0.461 $260,123
Asdrubal Cabrera 6 0.456 $257,188
Rafael Perez 13 0.454 $255,780
Ivan Nova 12 0.453 $255,471
Kameron Loe 13 0.451 $254,188
Michael Cuddyer 3 0.448 $252,809
Kelly Shoppach 2 0.448 $252,673
Daniel Espinosa 4 0.447 $251,983
Dan Runzler 13 0.442 $249,298
Mark Hendrickson 13 0.440 $247,758
Rob Johnson 2 0.438 $246,945
Bengie Molina 2 0.433 $244,107
Danny Weston Worth 6 0.424 $238,812
Philip Humber 13 0.423 $238,360
Alberto Gonzalez 5 0.422 $238,080
Manny Parra 13 0.414 $233,391
Scott Podsednik 7 0.407 $229,636
Justin Maxwell 9 0.406 $228,954
Clint Barmes 4 0.404 $227,829
Manny Corpas 13 0.403 $227,100
Scott Hairston 7 0.396 $223,073
Wilson Ramos 2 0.394 $222,202
Bobby Wilson 2 0.389 $219,513
Nick Blackburn 12 0.389 $219,139
Zach Duke 12 0.389 $219,044
Brandon League 13 0.386 $217,456
Todd Helton 3 0.384 $216,719
Jason Giambi 3 0.383 $215,972
Jamie Moyer 12 0.382 $215,212
Kenneth Herndon 13 0.380 $214,352
Brayan Pena 2 0.373 $210,254
Boone Logan 13 0.371 $209,120
Lou Marson 2 0.370 $208,837
Matt Kemp 8 0.370 $208,309
Cameron Maybin 8 0.369 $208,271
Brian Fuentes 13 0.367 $206,914
Jeff Karstens 12 0.366 $206,362
Brad Lidge 13 0.353 $198,955
Casey Janssen 13 0.353 $198,884
Craig Breslow 13 0.352 $198,384
Jeanmar Gomez 12 0.352 $198,309
Jason Castro 2 0.350 $197,441
Jensen Lewis 13 0.347 $195,665
Henry Blanco 2 0.346 $195,271
Mike McCoy 4 0.343 $193,150
Ernesto Frieri 13 0.339 $190,847
Ty Wigginton 3 0.338 $190,400
Carlos Villanueva 13 0.338 $190,265
Ryan Franklin 13 0.336 $189,505
Robbie Weinhardt 13 0.334 $187,995
Dayan Viciedo 5 0.332 $187,182
Darwin Barney 6 0.331 $186,601
Landon Powell 2 0.330 $186,087
Craig Tatum 2 0.326 $183,822
Jason Bourgeois 8 0.325 $183,127
Dillon Kyle Gee 12 0.325 $182,924
Fernando Rodney 13 0.323 $181,942
Conor Jackson 7 0.305 $172,110
Michael Saunders 7 0.303 $170,790
Travis Ishikawa 3 0.301 $169,764
Chad Durbin 13 0.300 $169,331
Jason Kubel 9 0.298 $167,909
Doug Slaten 13 0.297 $167,291
Chris Carter 7 0.296 $166,985
Matt Lindstrom 13 0.293 $165,308
Felix Doubront 13 0.287 $162,044
Felix Pie 7 0.280 $157,924
Jeffrey Manship 13 0.274 $154,492
Chris Resop 13 0.272 $153,305
Henry Rodriguez 13 0.272 $153,304
Kila Ka’aihue 3 0.271 $152,641
Guillermo Mota 13 0.268 $150,914
Kanekoa Texeira 13 0.265 $149,270
Matthew Downs 4 0.264 $148,735
Shawn Camp 13 0.263 $148,381
Corky Miller 2 0.263 $148,146
Manny Acosta 13 0.260 $146,656
Chad Qualls 13 0.258 $145,505
Travis Schlichting 13 0.258 $145,455
Will Ohman 13 0.258 $145,338
Omar Vizquel 5 0.251 $141,569
Dustin Hughes 13 0.251 $141,561
Mark Melancon 13 0.247 $139,086
Matt Albers 13 0.244 $137,725
David Purcey 13 0.243 $137,225
Josh Bard 2 0.243 $136,732
Tony Pena 13 0.238 $134,334
Michael McClendon 13 0.237 $133,408
Michael Kohn 13 0.234 $131,647
Bradley Davis 2 0.232 $130,579
Jeremy Affeldt 13 0.230 $129,783
Dewayne Wise 9 0.227 $127,985
Andrew Butera 2 0.224 $126,494
Ryan Keith Perry 13 0.223 $125,848
Mitchell Boggs 13 0.218 $122,863
Matthew Maloney 13 0.214 $120,533
Daniel Ray Herrera 13 0.213 $119,864
Jason LaRue 2 0.210 $118,217
Jose Mijares 13 0.210 $118,218
Chris Young 12 0.209 $118,006
Luis Atilano 12 0.205 $115,344
Ramon Ramirez 13 0.196 $110,262
Jose Veras 13 0.193 $108,785
Justin Duchscherer 12 0.186 $104,701
Felipe Lopez 5 0.183 $103,175
Brian Burres 12 0.181 $102,046
Samuel Demel 13 0.177 $99,887
Christopher Leroux 13 0.176 $99,358
Brett G Hayes 2 0.175 $98,468
Bill Bray 13 0.170 $96,069
William Joshua Reddick 9 0.170 $95,783
David Aardsma 13 0.170 $95,560
Robert Cassevah 13 0.169 $95,120
Boof Bonser 13 0.165 $93,243
Max Ramirez 2 0.162 $91,475
Tyler Walker 13 0.157 $88,273
Brian Sanches 13 0.153 $86,374
Jay Gibbons 7 0.153 $86,235
Matt Guerrier 13 0.150 $84,779
Juan Francisco 5 0.149 $83,929
Geoff Blum 6 0.147 $83,071
David Pauley 12 0.144 $81,080
Octavio Dotel 13 0.143 $80,710
Garrett Jones 3 0.139 $78,628
Cristhian Martinez 13 0.138 $77,570
Brett Carroll 9 0.138 $77,534
Collin Balester 13 0.137 $77,480
Kerry Wood 13 0.137 $77,382
Brad Thomas 13 0.131 $73,914
Charles Fisher 13 0.131 $73,567
Mike Hessman 5 0.130 $73,361
J.D. Martin 12 0.130 $73,289
Blaine Boyer 13 0.130 $73,247
Brad Ziegler 13 0.127 $71,480
Fernando Tatis 3 0.124 $69,807
Bryan Bullington 13 0.123 $69,103
Bradley Aaron Mills 13 0.120 $67,923
Dan Wheeler 13 0.111 $62,432
Reggie Willits 7 0.110 $62,190
Matt Thomas Daley 13 0.103 $57,931
Kyle McClellan 13 0.100 $56,418
Jai Miller 9 0.098 $55,048
Justin Smoak 3 0.096 $54,089
Dan Johnson 10 0.089 $50,023
Tyson Ross 13 0.081 $45,676
Nick Johnson 10 0.080 $45,164
Matt Palmer 13 0.078 $44,015
Aaron Heilman 13 0.077 $43,469
Chan Ho Park 13 0.072 $40,709
Logan Ondrusek 13 0.069 $38,874
Gustavo Chacin 13 0.068 $38,415
Joe Beimel 13 0.066 $37,098
Dana Eveland 12 0.063 $35,504
Matt Treanor 2 0.062 $35,123
Cesar Valdez 13 0.060 $33,709
Kevin Correia 12 0.058 $32,958
Tyler T Greene 6 0.057 $32,382
Allen Craig 9 0.056 $31,773
Ron Mahay 13 0.052 $29,308
Trever Miller 13 0.052 $29,144
Thomas Diamond 13 0.051 $28,667
Rusty Allen Ryal 7 0.049 $27,531
Chris Gimenez 2 0.048 $26,907
Jamey Wright 13 0.044 $24,675
Brent Morel 5 0.043 $24,312
Brian Moehler 13 0.043 $24,214
Andrew Oliver 12 0.037 $20,691
Todd Coffey 13 0.034 $19,174
Ryan Theriot 4 0.032 $17,758
Juan Miranda 10 0.031 $17,562
Jerry Blevins 13 0.030 $16,892
Samuel R Lecure 13 0.026 $14,453
David Riske 13 0.023 $13,114
Sergio Mitre 13 0.023 $13,109
Brian Bannister 12 0.023 $13,048
Edward Mujica 13 0.022 $12,229
Vince Mazzaro 12 0.022 $12,186
Yunesky Maya 12 0.020 $11,395
Justin Miller 13 0.020 $11,366
Jorge Cantu 5 0.018 $10,003
Lucas Harrell 13 0.013 $7,137
Aaron Miles 4 0.010 $5,584
Andres Blanco 4 0.009 $5,045
Jack Wilson 6 0.009 $4,985
Mike Lowell 3 0.003 $1,460

Note that incentives are there for highly paid free agents as well. I’m sure, given the competitive nature of players, winning the biggest bonus would be a very big deal. One of the nice things about using WAR for this, is that WAR is a framework. The union and owners can negotiate how it is calculated.

The final question is where does the money come from. A $680 million dollar pool would require each team to contribute $22.7 million. Since we are providing incentives for players, we should provide incentives for teams, too. Teams that play well would contribute less to the pool than teams that play poorly. So the world series winner would contribute the least, and the team with the worst record would contribute the most. Note that this benefits frugal teams that nonetheless produce winners, like the Rays and Twins.

(The way I would do it is not have teams contribute, but pay the players out of the National TV and MLB Advanced Media money, then divide what’s left among the teams based on their finish.)

Even without the player bonuses, I like the idea of dividing up the national money on an incentive basis. That night give the Royals and Pirates a bigger kick toward getting competitive.

Feel free to shoot holes in this. I believe this would provide an extra incentive for players to perform to their fullest. MLB would be forced to provide players with a fair share of revenue. Great young players would realize a big pay day sooner. Teams would have an incentive to win, rather than just pocket the revenue sharing money they get. The only ones who lose are the non-performers.

4 thoughts on “Dynamic Pay

  1. Zach Dubin

    The only thing I am wary about in this hypothetical is the way defense is accounted for. It’s always said that you need a large sample size (3 years) to get a good understanding of a player’s defense. What if you use a single season of offense and then for defense use the previous 3 year range to calculate WAR?

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  2. David Pinto Post author

    @Zach Dubin: I have no problem with that. One of the nice things about WAR is that it is a framework, and you can put in different calculations for runs or defense or replacement level based on what your research tells you.

    On the other hand, this idea is meant to reward what the player actually accomplished in the season, so if he got lucky on defense, he gets paid for it.

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