February 22, 2011

Mattingly’s Lineup

Via Mike Scioscia’s Tragic Illness, we get a glimpse of what Don Mattingly is thinking in terms of the Dodgers lineup:

Mattingly said he’s still thinking about Casey Blake as a No. 2 hitter behind leadoff hitter Rafael Furcal. That would likely mean James Loney following Kemp, with Uribe sixth, the left-field platoon of Marcus Thames/Jay Gibbons seventh and the catching platoon of Rod Barajas/Dioner Navarro eighth.

Scioscia’s blog likes this lineup, given the personnel available. I would have inserted James Loney second, since he combines a high OBP with low power, the sign of a table setter. The Lineup Analysis Tool, however, likes Mattingly’s lineup. It’s much closer to the optimal lineup than the worst lineup. While it doesn’t agree with the ordering, the 1-4, 5-9 split contains the same players. In other words, Don groups the right players together. The optimum lineup bats Loney ninth as a second leadoff man, so the program does see James as a table setter.

The bad news is, based on Marcel projections, the Dodgers are going to struggle to score four runs a game this season. The optimum lineup comes in at 4.3 runs per game, with Mattingly’s order scoring 4.1 R/G.

7 thoughts on “Mattingly’s Lineup

  1. MSE

    I hoping that catching “platoon” actually means that Barajas plays 80+% of the time regardless of what arm the pitcher throws with–his numbers vs. right handers are substantially better than Navarro’s, and still better vs. left handers. If Mattingly sets up a straight platoon with Navarro getting most of the AB vs. RHP, it will be a symptom of laziness and bad research on his part.

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  2. Jon

    The end of that order is not that impressive with Jay Gibbons/Thames. I don’t think the Dodgers will win the NL West this year.

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  3. James

    MSE, what numbers are you looking at?? You have the platoon backward, for one thing — there is no way Navarro will get most of the AB against righties. He hits lefties better. And he hits them better than Barajas does.

    Navarro OPS .754 vs LHP.
    Barajas OPS .696 against LHP (and also against RHP!)

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