The five year look at fielding using an objective probabilistic model of range continues with centerfielders. As always, we start with the complete team data:
| Team | In Play | Actual Outs | Predicted Outs | Actual DER | Predicted DER | Index |
| NYN | 14066 | 2194 | 1981.0 | 0.156 | 0.141 | 110.8 |
| ANA | 15635 | 2198 | 2109.0 | 0.141 | 0.135 | 104.2 |
| MIN | 15363 | 2219 | 2130.9 | 0.144 | 0.139 | 104.1 |
| SEA | 12671 | 2257 | 2171.5 | 0.178 | 0.171 | 103.9 |
| HOU | 14431 | 2113 | 2049.3 | 0.146 | 0.142 | 103.1 |
| FLO | 16302 | 2163 | 2101.4 | 0.133 | 0.129 | 102.9 |
| DET | 16457 | 2195 | 2141.6 | 0.133 | 0.130 | 102.5 |
| CLE | 16721 | 2108 | 2061.6 | 0.126 | 0.123 | 102.2 |
| CIN | 14823 | 2172 | 2132.6 | 0.147 | 0.144 | 101.8 |
| CHN | 14225 | 1975 | 1944.1 | 0.139 | 0.137 | 101.6 |
| SDN | 16476 | 2117 | 2090.9 | 0.128 | 0.127 | 101.2 |
| ATL | 15114 | 1949 | 1926.2 | 0.129 | 0.127 | 101.2 |
| COL | 12832 | 1949 | 1931.8 | 0.152 | 0.151 | 100.9 |
| PHI | 13987 | 2008 | 1995.2 | 0.144 | 0.143 | 100.6 |
| WAS | 14229 | 2228 | 2221.1 | 0.157 | 0.156 | 100.3 |
| BOS | 16397 | 2063 | 2059.8 | 0.126 | 0.126 | 100.2 |
| SLN | 14393 | 1942 | 1937.5 | 0.135 | 0.135 | 100.2 |
| SFN | 13812 | 2116 | 2116.5 | 0.153 | 0.153 | 100.0 |
| NYA | 12545 | 2093 | 2101.0 | 0.167 | 0.167 | 99.6 |
| KCA | 16621 | 2147 | 2160.6 | 0.129 | 0.130 | 99.4 |
| BAL | 14513 | 2229 | 2244.9 | 0.154 | 0.155 | 99.3 |
| TBA | 15993 | 2195 | 2210.7 | 0.137 | 0.138 | 99.3 |
| CHA | 15444 | 2045 | 2064.3 | 0.132 | 0.134 | 99.1 |
| PIT | 15893 | 2057 | 2092.6 | 0.129 | 0.132 | 98.3 |
| MIL | 14597 | 2089 | 2144.3 | 0.143 | 0.147 | 97.4 |
| ARI | 16596 | 2040 | 2097.5 | 0.123 | 0.126 | 97.3 |
| LAN | 15463 | 1869 | 1926.8 | 0.121 | 0.125 | 97.0 |
| OAK | 12127 | 2074 | 2146.9 | 0.171 | 0.177 | 96.6 |
| TOR | 14658 | 1880 | 1957.1 | 0.128 | 0.134 | 96.1 |
| TEX | 16113 | 2060 | 2165.3 | 0.128 | 0.134 | 95.1 |
The Mets are just off the chart in centerfield, thanks to Carlos Beltran.
| Fielder | In Play | Actual Outs | Predicted Outs | Actual DER | Predicted DER | Index |
| Carlos Beltran | 996815061385.90.1510.139108.7||||||
| Willy Taveras | 715410991015.70.1540.142108.2||||||
| Coco Crisp | 854511901100.70.1390.129108.1||||||
| Carlos Gomez | 6158889828.40.1440.135107.3||||||
| Franklin Gutierrez | 5042913862.40.1810.171105.9||||||
| Alexis Rios | 4643691660.60.1490.142104.6||||||
| Andruw Jones | 7094940903.90.1330.127104.0||||||
| Denard Span | 4290615596.00.1430.139103.2||||||
| Torii Hunter | 1151116431592.80.1430.138103.1||||||
| Rajai Davis | 4150727707.30.1750.170102.8||||||
| Alfredo Amezaga | 4150535522.10.1290.126102.5||||||
| Curtis Granderson | 1342518871843.30.1410.137102.4||||||
| Melky Cabrera | 5666943921.60.1660.163102.3||||||
| Grady Sizemore | 1175715131488.70.1290.127101.6||||||
| Shane Victorino | 799911751161.20.1470.145101.2||||||
| Jim Edmonds | 6094844835.00.1380.137101.1||||||
| B.J. Upton | 976413531338.70.1390.137101.1||||||
| Adam Jones | 762211851174.90.1550.154100.9||||||
| Gary Matthews | 6687913906.60.1370.136100.7||||||
| Michael Bourn | 712310381032.80.1460.145100.5||||||
| Aaron Rowand | 1044515451543.60.1480.148100.1||||||
| Mike Cameron | 1147515401544.60.1340.13599.7||||||
| Corey Patterson | 5741898900.40.1560.15799.7||||||
| Marlon Byrd | 716510011004.50.1400.14099.6||||||
| Joey Gathright | 4389565568.00.1290.12999.5||||||
| Juan Pierre | 6447802809.60.1240.12699.1||||||
| Matt Kemp | 7686951969.00.1240.12698.1||||||
| Nate McLouth | 820710561076.10.1290.13198.1||||||
| Chris Young | 1166615021539.20.1290.13297.6||||||
| Cody Ross | 6051765791.30.1260.13196.7||||||
| Josh Hamilton | 4883643665.50.1320.13696.6||||||
| Jacoby Ellsbury | 4874595616.60.1220.12796.5||||||
| David DeJesus | 5253758788.00.1440.15096.2||||||
| Vernon Wells | 1251115721646.20.1260.13295.5||||||
| Andrew McCutchen | 4990636675.90.1270.13594.1||||||
| Mark Kotsay | 4142602649.10.1450.15792.7
The Twins should be proud that they produced fielding gems Torii Hunter and Denard Span. I’m somewhat surprised Jacoby Ellsbury does poorly, but maybe the Red Sox realized that when they moved him to left at the start of the 2010 season. Josh Hamilton clearly should not be the regular CF for the Rangers.
FanGraphs’ Range Runs doesn’t like Wells or Kotsay, but rates Beltran a lot lower. In general, however, it looks like there is more agreement here than among the second baseman.
Ellsbury was hugely overrated until this past year when the injury made fans and writers take a more realistic look. His first 100 PA were strong, and obviously he’s really fast, and those two facts gave him a kind of glitter. Then he got lots of ROY votes for his .729 OPS season. I wonder if he’ll lead off this year, of if they’ll let Crawford do it.
Anyway, maybe some of the glitter got in people’s eyes when they watched him field, too.
The Mets’ overall rating is even higher than Beltran’s rating. I guess most of the difference must come from Angel Pagan, so I hope Terry Collins goes through with efforts to get Carlos (not nearly as mobile since last year) to move to RF.