The five year look at PMR using an objective probabilistic model of range continues with rightfielders. Here is the data for the teams in right over the five year span:
Team | In Play | Actual Outs | Predicted Outs | Actual DER | Predicted DER | Index |
TEX | 17063 | 1816 | 1664.4 | 0.106 | 0.098 | 109.1 |
ARI | 18222 | 1596 | 1486.0 | 0.088 | 0.082 | 107.4 |
FLO | 15005 | 1744 | 1628.4 | 0.116 | 0.109 | 107.1 |
CLE | 16448 | 1718 | 1623.7 | 0.104 | 0.099 | 105.8 |
CIN | 19014 | 1859 | 1768.9 | 0.098 | 0.093 | 105.1 |
SDN | 18477 | 1642 | 1565.8 | 0.089 | 0.085 | 104.9 |
TOR | 15576 | 1522 | 1462.0 | 0.098 | 0.094 | 104.1 |
SFN | 16350 | 1756 | 1692.9 | 0.107 | 0.104 | 103.7 |
HOU | 18435 | 1702 | 1646.5 | 0.092 | 0.089 | 103.4 |
WAS | 15208 | 1819 | 1767.7 | 0.120 | 0.116 | 102.9 |
KCA | 18252 | 1767 | 1739.5 | 0.097 | 0.095 | 101.6 |
MIN | 17388 | 1639 | 1617.1 | 0.094 | 0.093 | 101.4 |
OAK | 14344 | 1705 | 1684.4 | 0.119 | 0.117 | 101.2 |
PHI | 16848 | 1667 | 1653.6 | 0.099 | 0.098 | 100.8 |
CHA | 14957 | 1592 | 1583.7 | 0.106 | 0.106 | 100.5 |
BOS | 17028 | 1569 | 1561.2 | 0.092 | 0.092 | 100.5 |
TBA | 14795 | 1697 | 1694.1 | 0.115 | 0.115 | 100.2 |
NYA | 15578 | 1657 | 1653.8 | 0.106 | 0.106 | 100.2 |
SLN | 19101 | 1590 | 1607.5 | 0.083 | 0.084 | 98.9 |
LAN | 17788 | 1538 | 1563.4 | 0.086 | 0.088 | 98.4 |
NYN | 14262 | 1637 | 1689.5 | 0.115 | 0.118 | 96.9 |
MIL | 18218 | 1684 | 1749.2 | 0.092 | 0.096 | 96.3 |
BAL | 17931 | 1674 | 1740.7 | 0.093 | 0.097 | 96.2 |
ATL | 17318 | 1538 | 1606.5 | 0.089 | 0.093 | 95.7 |
SEA | 17452 | 1657 | 1745.2 | 0.095 | 0.100 | 94.9 |
ANA | 15609 | 1604 | 1691.5 | 0.103 | 0.108 | 94.8 |
PIT | 18249 | 1650 | 1747.4 | 0.090 | 0.096 | 94.4 |
CHN | 16072 | 1632 | 1733.3 | 0.102 | 0.108 | 94.2 |
DET | 15483 | 1533 | 1645.3 | 0.099 | 0.106 | 93.2 |
COL | 18078 | 1404 | 1536.7 | 0.078 | 0.085 | 91.4 |
A comparison of FanGraphs range runs shows that four of the top eight teams are shared between the two lists. The top teams on the objective PMR list tend to have younger outfielders:
Fielder | In Play | Actual Outs | Predicted Outs | Actual DER | Predicted DER | Index |
Nelson Cruz | 6996 | 809 | 706.4 | 0.116 | 0.101 | 114.5 |
Alexis Rios | 8847 | 859 | 783.4 | 0.097 | 0.089 | 109.7 |
Jay Bruce | 6701 | 686 | 629.4 | 0.102 | 0.094 | 109.0 |
Randy Winn | 8227 | 940 | 867.5 | 0.114 | 0.105 | 108.4 |
Justin Upton | 8906 | 799 | 738.7 | 0.090 | 0.083 | 108.2 |
Nick Swisher | 5275 | 639 | 599.4 | 0.121 | 0.114 | 106.6 |
Hunter Pence | 10667 | 1035 | 976.6 | 0.097 | 0.092 | 106.0 |
Jeremy Hermida | 7305 | 843 | 797.4 | 0.115 | 0.109 | 105.7 |
Shin-Soo Choo | 6720 | 702 | 664.2 | 0.104 | 0.099 | 105.7 |
Carlos Quentin | 4297 | 417 | 397.1 | 0.097 | 0.092 | 105.0 |
Ryan Ludwick | 8676 | 751 | 721.7 | 0.087 | 0.083 | 104.1 |
Jayson Werth | 7953 | 828 | 798.4 | 0.104 | 0.100 | 103.7 |
Gabe Gross | 4208 | 472 | 459.6 | 0.112 | 0.109 | 102.7 |
Austin Kearns | 8814 | 1034 | 1008.4 | 0.117 | 0.114 | 102.5 |
Jermaine Dye | 10036 | 1090 | 1067.6 | 0.109 | 0.106 | 102.1 |
J.D. Drew | 12711 | 1157 | 1133.0 | 0.091 | 0.089 | 102.1 |
Mark Teahen | 5593 | 553 | 544.8 | 0.099 | 0.097 | 101.5 |
Brian Giles | 10894 | 900 | 908.1 | 0.083 | 0.083 | 99.1 |
Kosuke Fukudome | 4981 | 515 | 521.4 | 0.103 | 0.105 | 98.8 |
Ichiro Suzuki | 10925 | 1098 | 1116.5 | 0.101 | 0.102 | 98.3 |
Ken Griffey | 5169 | 452 | 461.7 | 0.087 | 0.089 | 97.9 |
Corey Hart | 11591 | 1081 | 1121.0 | 0.093 | 0.097 | 96.4 |
Milton Bradley | 4013 | 437 | 455.1 | 0.109 | 0.113 | 96.0 |
Vladimir Guerrero | 6460 | 670 | 697.8 | 0.104 | 0.108 | 96.0 |
Michael Cuddyer | 10977 | 940 | 983.7 | 0.086 | 0.090 | 95.6 |
Geoff Jenkins | 4295 | 388 | 406.2 | 0.090 | 0.095 | 95.5 |
Nick Markakis | 16303 | 1503 | 1574.9 | 0.092 | 0.097 | 95.4 |
Shawn Green | 4313 | 423 | 446.3 | 0.098 | 0.103 | 94.8 |
Jeff Francoeur | 15257 | 1462 | 1541.6 | 0.096 | 0.101 | 94.8 |
Andre Ethier | 9976 | 850 | 899.7 | 0.085 | 0.090 | 94.5 |
Bobby Abreu | 13317 | 1294 | 1369.1 | 0.097 | 0.103 | 94.5 |
Jose Guillen | 8014 | 747 | 791.7 | 0.093 | 0.099 | 94.4 |
Xavier Nady | 6061 | 583 | 643.0 | 0.096 | 0.106 | 90.7 |
Juan Encarnacion | 4275 | 344 | 380.6 | 0.080 | 0.089 | 90.4 |
Brad Hawpe | 13340 | 1024 | 1144.4 | 0.077 | 0.086 | 89.5 |
Magglio Ordonez | 10859 | 1022 | 1156.1 | 0.094 | 0.106 | 88.4 |
The bottom of the list does tend to be on the older side. I’m always surprised when Ichiro doesn’t do that well in PMR, especially in rightfield. However, he’s no longer a young man, so given average standing, it’s not bad at all. Range Runs likes Ichiro at lot better than objective PMR. Nelson Cruz, Randy Winn and Jay Bruce rate highly there, too, so there’s agreement as well.