February 26, 2011

Five-Year PMR, Rightfielders

The five year look at PMR using an objective probabilistic model of range continues with rightfielders. Here is the data for the teams in right over the five year span:

Team rightfielder PMR, 2006-2010, four parameter objective model built on visiting team data.
Team In Play Actual Outs Predicted Outs Actual DER Predicted DER Index
TEX 17063 1816 1664.4 0.106 0.098 109.1
ARI 18222 1596 1486.0 0.088 0.082 107.4
FLO 15005 1744 1628.4 0.116 0.109 107.1
CLE 16448 1718 1623.7 0.104 0.099 105.8
CIN 19014 1859 1768.9 0.098 0.093 105.1
SDN 18477 1642 1565.8 0.089 0.085 104.9
TOR 15576 1522 1462.0 0.098 0.094 104.1
SFN 16350 1756 1692.9 0.107 0.104 103.7
HOU 18435 1702 1646.5 0.092 0.089 103.4
WAS 15208 1819 1767.7 0.120 0.116 102.9
KCA 18252 1767 1739.5 0.097 0.095 101.6
MIN 17388 1639 1617.1 0.094 0.093 101.4
OAK 14344 1705 1684.4 0.119 0.117 101.2
PHI 16848 1667 1653.6 0.099 0.098 100.8
CHA 14957 1592 1583.7 0.106 0.106 100.5
BOS 17028 1569 1561.2 0.092 0.092 100.5
TBA 14795 1697 1694.1 0.115 0.115 100.2
NYA 15578 1657 1653.8 0.106 0.106 100.2
SLN 19101 1590 1607.5 0.083 0.084 98.9
LAN 17788 1538 1563.4 0.086 0.088 98.4
NYN 14262 1637 1689.5 0.115 0.118 96.9
MIL 18218 1684 1749.2 0.092 0.096 96.3
BAL 17931 1674 1740.7 0.093 0.097 96.2
ATL 17318 1538 1606.5 0.089 0.093 95.7
SEA 17452 1657 1745.2 0.095 0.100 94.9
ANA 15609 1604 1691.5 0.103 0.108 94.8
PIT 18249 1650 1747.4 0.090 0.096 94.4
CHN 16072 1632 1733.3 0.102 0.108 94.2
DET 15483 1533 1645.3 0.099 0.106 93.2
COL 18078 1404 1536.7 0.078 0.085 91.4

A comparison of FanGraphs range runs shows that four of the top eight teams are shared between the two lists. The top teams on the objective PMR list tend to have younger outfielders:

Individual rightfielder PMR, 2006-2010, four parameter objective model built on visiting team data.
Fielder In Play Actual Outs Predicted Outs Actual DER Predicted DER Index
Nelson Cruz 6996 809 706.4 0.116 0.101 114.5
Alexis Rios 8847 859 783.4 0.097 0.089 109.7
Jay Bruce 6701 686 629.4 0.102 0.094 109.0
Randy Winn 8227 940 867.5 0.114 0.105 108.4
Justin Upton 8906 799 738.7 0.090 0.083 108.2
Nick Swisher 5275 639 599.4 0.121 0.114 106.6
Hunter Pence 10667 1035 976.6 0.097 0.092 106.0
Jeremy Hermida 7305 843 797.4 0.115 0.109 105.7
Shin-Soo Choo 6720 702 664.2 0.104 0.099 105.7
Carlos Quentin 4297 417 397.1 0.097 0.092 105.0
Ryan Ludwick 8676 751 721.7 0.087 0.083 104.1
Jayson Werth 7953 828 798.4 0.104 0.100 103.7
Gabe Gross 4208 472 459.6 0.112 0.109 102.7
Austin Kearns 8814 1034 1008.4 0.117 0.114 102.5
Jermaine Dye 10036 1090 1067.6 0.109 0.106 102.1
J.D. Drew 12711 1157 1133.0 0.091 0.089 102.1
Mark Teahen 5593 553 544.8 0.099 0.097 101.5
Brian Giles 10894 900 908.1 0.083 0.083 99.1
Kosuke Fukudome 4981 515 521.4 0.103 0.105 98.8
Ichiro Suzuki 10925 1098 1116.5 0.101 0.102 98.3
Ken Griffey 5169 452 461.7 0.087 0.089 97.9
Corey Hart 11591 1081 1121.0 0.093 0.097 96.4
Milton Bradley 4013 437 455.1 0.109 0.113 96.0
Vladimir Guerrero 6460 670 697.8 0.104 0.108 96.0
Michael Cuddyer 10977 940 983.7 0.086 0.090 95.6
Geoff Jenkins 4295 388 406.2 0.090 0.095 95.5
Nick Markakis 16303 1503 1574.9 0.092 0.097 95.4
Shawn Green 4313 423 446.3 0.098 0.103 94.8
Jeff Francoeur 15257 1462 1541.6 0.096 0.101 94.8
Andre Ethier 9976 850 899.7 0.085 0.090 94.5
Bobby Abreu 13317 1294 1369.1 0.097 0.103 94.5
Jose Guillen 8014 747 791.7 0.093 0.099 94.4
Xavier Nady 6061 583 643.0 0.096 0.106 90.7
Juan Encarnacion 4275 344 380.6 0.080 0.089 90.4
Brad Hawpe 13340 1024 1144.4 0.077 0.086 89.5
Magglio Ordonez 10859 1022 1156.1 0.094 0.106 88.4

The bottom of the list does tend to be on the older side. I’m always surprised when Ichiro doesn’t do that well in PMR, especially in rightfield. However, he’s no longer a young man, so given average standing, it’s not bad at all. Range Runs likes Ichiro at lot better than objective PMR. Nelson Cruz, Randy Winn and Jay Bruce rate highly there, too, so there’s agreement as well.

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