Five-Year PMR, Leftfielders

The five year look at PMR using an objective probabilistic model of range continues with leftfielders. Here is the data for the teams in left over the five year span:

Team leftfielder PMR, 2006-2010, four parameter objective model built on visiting team data.
Team	In Play	Actual Outs	Predicted Outs	Actual DER	Predicted DER	Index
CHN	15774	1536	1439.3	0.097	0.091	106.7
ATL	15636	1494	1401.5	0.096	0.090	106.6
PIT	18139	1594	1497.5	0.088	0.083	106.4
KCA	18757	1781	1679.8	0.095	0.090	106.0
NYA	15628	1586	1504.5	0.101	0.096	105.4
TBA	17771	1722	1640.0	0.097	0.092	105.0
MIL	17605	1541	1470.1	0.088	0.084	104.8
BAL	18601	1775	1703.9	0.095	0.092	104.2
ARI	15518	1619	1554.6	0.104	0.100	104.1
COL	17608	1462	1415.8	0.083	0.080	103.3
LAN	15747	1416	1379.9	0.090	0.088	102.6
SFN	15583	1566	1526.4	0.100	0.098	102.6
WAS	13948	1620	1601.8	0.116	0.115	101.1
BOS	15990	1512	1501.2	0.095	0.094	100.7
SEA	18929	1668	1659.2	0.088	0.088	100.5
DET	16254	1624	1618.3	0.100	0.100	100.4
SDN	15744	1574	1578.5	0.100	0.100	99.7
NYN	15106	1529	1544.6	0.101	0.102	99.0
ANA	18139	1617	1642.7	0.089	0.091	98.4
TEX	16842	1603	1630.1	0.095	0.097	98.3
OAK	17009	1614	1649.7	0.095	0.097	97.8
CLE	19103	1585	1622.7	0.083	0.085	97.7
TOR	17621	1372	1439.9	0.078	0.082	95.3
MIN	17584	1584	1665.9	0.090	0.095	95.1
SLN	16933	1455	1548.5	0.086	0.091	94.0
CHA	18013	1555	1663.2	0.086	0.092	93.5
CIN	18020	1512	1627.7	0.084	0.090	92.9
PHI	14144	1380	1485.7	0.098	0.105	92.9
FLO	16420	1423	1548.2	0.087	0.094	91.9
HOU	18038	1318	1489.6	0.073	0.083	88.5

From this one might expect Alfonso Soriano to be a pretty good leftfielder. He’s okay, but I guess everyone else who filled in was really good:

Individual leftfielder PMR, 2006-2010, four parameter objective model built on visiting team data.
Fielder	In Play	Actual Outs	Predicted Outs	Actual DER	Predicted DER	Index
Jay Payton	4591	492	420.2	0.107	0.092	117.1
Matt Diaz	4924	537	461.7	0.109	0.094	116.3
David DeJesus	5747	569	504.3	0.099	0.088	112.8
Johnny Damon	4957	494	456.4	0.100	0.092	108.2
Eric Byrnes	4067	445	411.5	0.109	0.101	108.1
Carl Crawford	14539	1447	1347.8	0.100	0.093	107.4
Ryan Braun	9738	859	819.1	0.088	0.084	104.9
Juan Pierre	5897	560	540.4	0.095	0.092	103.6
Jason Bay	13991	1275	1237.0	0.091	0.088	103.1
Luke Scott	4081	360	352.5	0.088	0.086	102.1
Shannon Stewart	4258	388	382.5	0.091	0.090	101.4
Alfonso Soriano	11797	1163	1148.8	0.099	0.097	101.2
David Murphy	4343	421	419.5	0.097	0.097	100.3
Matt Holliday	15908	1346	1353.0	0.085	0.085	99.5
Scott Podsednik	8245	763	768.9	0.093	0.093	99.2
Juan Rivera	6407	583	589.7	0.091	0.092	98.9
Emil Brown	4408	403	408.7	0.091	0.093	98.6
Fred Lewis	5194	478	492.6	0.092	0.095	97.0
Jason Michaels	5343	436	450.7	0.082	0.084	96.7
Garret Anderson	8106	701	734.6	0.086	0.091	95.4
Luis Gonzalez	6334	553	581.7	0.087	0.092	95.1
Chris Coghlan	4039	364	383.0	0.090	0.095	95.0
Adam Dunn	9522	833	890.6	0.087	0.094	93.5
Barry Bonds	4055	350	376.5	0.086	0.093	93.0
Raul Ibanez	14482	1253	1349.4	0.087	0.093	92.9
Manny Ramirez	8953	750	808.1	0.084	0.090	92.8
Josh Willingham	10019	911	983.5	0.091	0.098	92.6
Adam Lind	4535	356	388.7	0.079	0.086	91.6
Carlos Quentin	4582	390	428.8	0.085	0.094	91.0
Pat Burrell	7730	704	778.7	0.091	0.101	90.4
Craig Monroe	4170	351	392.7	0.084	0.094	89.4
Chris Duncan	4449	376	423.7	0.085	0.095	88.7
Delmon Young	8084	694	802.6	0.086	0.099	86.5
Carlos Lee	14907	1069	1238.1	0.072	0.083	86.3

At least the Royals are above average somewhere in the field. It’s not surprise that Carl Crawford is the best long term leftfielder and the slugging Carlos Lee is the worst. It also appears moving Ryan Braun off third base was the right strategy.

FanGraphs agrees on the top ranking for Carl Crawford, and also rates Soriano and Matt Murton highly.

February 28, 2011

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