The five year look at PMR using an objective probabilistic model of range continues with first basemen. Here is the data for the teams at first over the five year span:
Team | In Play | Actual Outs | Predicted Outs | Actual DER | Predicted DER | Index |
SLN | 17214 | 1796 | 1608.4 | 0.104 | 0.093 | 111.7 |
SFN | 16122 | 1571 | 1421.7 | 0.097 | 0.088 | 110.5 |
CHN | 15206 | 1539 | 1405.7 | 0.101 | 0.092 | 109.5 |
ANA | 15603 | 1642 | 1515.5 | 0.105 | 0.097 | 108.3 |
HOU | 15980 | 1618 | 1521.1 | 0.101 | 0.095 | 106.4 |
TOR | 16348 | 1641 | 1554.2 | 0.100 | 0.095 | 105.6 |
SEA | 16560 | 1537 | 1467.1 | 0.093 | 0.089 | 104.8 |
PIT | 16826 | 1510 | 1443.8 | 0.090 | 0.086 | 104.6 |
SDN | 16124 | 1620 | 1556.1 | 0.100 | 0.097 | 104.1 |
NYN | 15938 | 1517 | 1463.6 | 0.095 | 0.092 | 103.6 |
CHA | 16428 | 1455 | 1431.6 | 0.089 | 0.087 | 101.6 |
BOS | 15700 | 1568 | 1544.1 | 0.100 | 0.098 | 101.5 |
NYA | 15989 | 1488 | 1475.2 | 0.093 | 0.092 | 100.9 |
BAL | 16368 | 1496 | 1482.9 | 0.091 | 0.091 | 100.9 |
FLO | 15932 | 1492 | 1491.8 | 0.094 | 0.094 | 100.0 |
TBA | 15733 | 1532 | 1551.2 | 0.097 | 0.099 | 98.8 |
TEX | 16633 | 1471 | 1489.5 | 0.088 | 0.090 | 98.8 |
OAK | 16196 | 1484 | 1510.8 | 0.092 | 0.093 | 98.2 |
KCA | 16341 | 1447 | 1503.0 | 0.089 | 0.092 | 96.3 |
DET | 16542 | 1483 | 1541.2 | 0.090 | 0.093 | 96.2 |
CIN | 16315 | 1527 | 1587.8 | 0.094 | 0.097 | 96.2 |
LAN | 16233 | 1422 | 1485.1 | 0.088 | 0.091 | 95.8 |
CLE | 16856 | 1441 | 1519.1 | 0.085 | 0.090 | 94.9 |
MIN | 15940 | 1391 | 1469.6 | 0.087 | 0.092 | 94.7 |
PHI | 16534 | 1529 | 1618.2 | 0.092 | 0.098 | 94.5 |
MIL | 16049 | 1434 | 1543.8 | 0.089 | 0.096 | 92.9 |
ARI | 16358 | 1496 | 1616.5 | 0.091 | 0.099 | 92.5 |
WAS | 16362 | 1491 | 1618.9 | 0.091 | 0.099 | 92.1 |
ATL | 16077 | 1500 | 1630.7 | 0.093 | 0.101 | 92.0 |
COL | 17060 | 1511 | 1644.1 | 0.089 | 0.096 | 91.9 |
I’m not at all surprised by St. Louis ranking number one. The years I computed the more advance PMR stats, Albert Pujols was head and shoulders above the other first basemen. The Giants have not been great offensively at the position during the time span, but they at least made up a bit for it with defense. The Yankees, with a balance between Jason Giambi and Mark Teixeira over the period come out league average. Next come the players, regulars and semi regulars:
Fielder | In Play | Actual Outs | Predicted Outs | Actual DER | Predicted DER | Index |
Albert Pujols | 15592 | 1659 | 1460.7 | 0.106 | 0.094 | 113.6 |
Kendry Morales | 5075 | 553 | 502.5 | 0.109 | 0.099 | 110.0 |
Derrek Lee | 11528 | 1169 | 1074.3 | 0.101 | 0.093 | 108.8 |
Lance Berkman | 11643 | 1191 | 1102.7 | 0.102 | 0.095 | 108.0 |
Mark Teixeira | 14352 | 1449 | 1360.2 | 0.101 | 0.095 | 106.5 |
Lyle Overbay | 13371 | 1352 | 1273.3 | 0.101 | 0.095 | 106.2 |
Adrian Gonzalez | 15367 | 1558 | 1483.0 | 0.101 | 0.097 | 105.1 |
Adam LaRoche | 14185 | 1350 | 1283.9 | 0.095 | 0.091 | 105.1 |
Casey Kotchman | 9441 | 947 | 903.3 | 0.100 | 0.096 | 104.8 |
Daric Barton | 6616 | 632 | 605.3 | 0.096 | 0.091 | 104.4 |
Kevin Millar | 7349 | 672 | 649.4 | 0.091 | 0.088 | 103.5 |
Kevin Youkilis | 9955 | 1022 | 987.7 | 0.103 | 0.099 | 103.5 |
Nick Johnson | 6023 | 616 | 597.9 | 0.102 | 0.099 | 103.0 |
Joey Votto | 8267 | 837 | 814.3 | 0.101 | 0.099 | 102.8 |
Paul Konerko | 12850 | 1134 | 1111.5 | 0.088 | 0.087 | 102.0 |
Richie Sexson | 6934 | 625 | 614.2 | 0.090 | 0.089 | 101.8 |
Carlos Delgado | 8863 | 835 | 831.7 | 0.094 | 0.094 | 100.4 |
Aubrey Huff | 4968 | 458 | 464.3 | 0.092 | 0.093 | 98.6 |
Carlos Pena | 10393 | 1022 | 1038.7 | 0.098 | 0.100 | 98.4 |
James Loney | 11073 | 1008 | 1024.5 | 0.091 | 0.093 | 98.4 |
Ross Gload | 5009 | 462 | 472.5 | 0.092 | 0.094 | 97.8 |
Justin Morneau | 12564 | 1127 | 1175.0 | 0.090 | 0.094 | 95.9 |
Ryan Howard | 15200 | 1413 | 1487.3 | 0.093 | 0.098 | 95.0 |
Miguel Cabrera | 8644 | 777 | 823.5 | 0.090 | 0.095 | 94.4 |
Mike Jacobs | 6755 | 565 | 599.1 | 0.084 | 0.089 | 94.3 |
Sean Casey | 5168 | 431 | 458.2 | 0.083 | 0.089 | 94.1 |
Todd Helton | 13067 | 1175 | 1271.6 | 0.090 | 0.097 | 92.4 |
Ryan Garko | 7416 | 616 | 667.0 | 0.083 | 0.090 | 92.3 |
Billy Butler | 6015 | 524 | 568.0 | 0.087 | 0.094 | 92.3 |
Prince Fielder | 15328 | 1355 | 1473.4 | 0.088 | 0.096 | 92.0 |
Nomar Garciaparra | 4041 | 324 | 362.5 | 0.080 | 0.090 | 89.4 |
Conor Jackson | 5935 | 524 | 591.3 | 0.088 | 0.100 | 88.6 |
Scott Hatteberg | 4560 | 378 | 433.0 | 0.083 | 0.095 | 87.3 |
Adam Dunn | 4546 | 375 | 439.0 | 0.082 | 0.097 | 85.4 |
Jason Giambi | 5062 | 380 | 448.5 | 0.075 | 0.089 | 84.7 |
I don’t have too much to say about this list. Albert Pujols comes out on top, which is what I expected. The people lower on the list tend to be bigger, heavier, older players. No one should be surprised to see Giambi and Dunn near the bottom. I thought Carlos Pena would rank higher and Lance Berkman lower.
I would like to point out something about Albert Pujols that shows his ranking is correct, even without a model. Albert was the first fielder to touch the ball on 1659 outs from 2006-2010. The closest an entire team came to that number was 1642 by all the Angels first basemen. When someone signs him for next season, they are getting the total package, great hitter, incredible fielder.