March 2, 2011

Five-Year PMR, First Basemen

The five year look at PMR using an objective probabilistic model of range continues with first basemen. Here is the data for the teams at first over the five year span:

Team first baseman PMR, 2006-2010, four parameter objective model built on visiting team data.
Team In Play Actual Outs Predicted Outs Actual DER Predicted DER Index
SLN 17214 1796 1608.4 0.104 0.093 111.7
SFN 16122 1571 1421.7 0.097 0.088 110.5
CHN 15206 1539 1405.7 0.101 0.092 109.5
ANA 15603 1642 1515.5 0.105 0.097 108.3
HOU 15980 1618 1521.1 0.101 0.095 106.4
TOR 16348 1641 1554.2 0.100 0.095 105.6
SEA 16560 1537 1467.1 0.093 0.089 104.8
PIT 16826 1510 1443.8 0.090 0.086 104.6
SDN 16124 1620 1556.1 0.100 0.097 104.1
NYN 15938 1517 1463.6 0.095 0.092 103.6
CHA 16428 1455 1431.6 0.089 0.087 101.6
BOS 15700 1568 1544.1 0.100 0.098 101.5
NYA 15989 1488 1475.2 0.093 0.092 100.9
BAL 16368 1496 1482.9 0.091 0.091 100.9
FLO 15932 1492 1491.8 0.094 0.094 100.0
TBA 15733 1532 1551.2 0.097 0.099 98.8
TEX 16633 1471 1489.5 0.088 0.090 98.8
OAK 16196 1484 1510.8 0.092 0.093 98.2
KCA 16341 1447 1503.0 0.089 0.092 96.3
DET 16542 1483 1541.2 0.090 0.093 96.2
CIN 16315 1527 1587.8 0.094 0.097 96.2
LAN 16233 1422 1485.1 0.088 0.091 95.8
CLE 16856 1441 1519.1 0.085 0.090 94.9
MIN 15940 1391 1469.6 0.087 0.092 94.7
PHI 16534 1529 1618.2 0.092 0.098 94.5
MIL 16049 1434 1543.8 0.089 0.096 92.9
ARI 16358 1496 1616.5 0.091 0.099 92.5
WAS 16362 1491 1618.9 0.091 0.099 92.1
ATL 16077 1500 1630.7 0.093 0.101 92.0
COL 17060 1511 1644.1 0.089 0.096 91.9

I’m not at all surprised by St. Louis ranking number one. The years I computed the more advance PMR stats, Albert Pujols was head and shoulders above the other first basemen. The Giants have not been great offensively at the position during the time span, but they at least made up a bit for it with defense. The Yankees, with a balance between Jason Giambi and Mark Teixeira over the period come out league average. Next come the players, regulars and semi regulars:

Individual first baseman PMR, 2006-2010, four parameter objective model built on visiting team data.
Fielder In Play Actual Outs Predicted Outs Actual DER Predicted DER Index
Albert Pujols 15592 1659 1460.7 0.106 0.094 113.6
Kendry Morales 5075 553 502.5 0.109 0.099 110.0
Derrek Lee 11528 1169 1074.3 0.101 0.093 108.8
Lance Berkman 11643 1191 1102.7 0.102 0.095 108.0
Mark Teixeira 14352 1449 1360.2 0.101 0.095 106.5
Lyle Overbay 13371 1352 1273.3 0.101 0.095 106.2
Adrian Gonzalez 15367 1558 1483.0 0.101 0.097 105.1
Adam LaRoche 14185 1350 1283.9 0.095 0.091 105.1
Casey Kotchman 9441 947 903.3 0.100 0.096 104.8
Daric Barton 6616 632 605.3 0.096 0.091 104.4
Kevin Millar 7349 672 649.4 0.091 0.088 103.5
Kevin Youkilis 9955 1022 987.7 0.103 0.099 103.5
Nick Johnson 6023 616 597.9 0.102 0.099 103.0
Joey Votto 8267 837 814.3 0.101 0.099 102.8
Paul Konerko 12850 1134 1111.5 0.088 0.087 102.0
Richie Sexson 6934 625 614.2 0.090 0.089 101.8
Carlos Delgado 8863 835 831.7 0.094 0.094 100.4
Aubrey Huff 4968 458 464.3 0.092 0.093 98.6
Carlos Pena 10393 1022 1038.7 0.098 0.100 98.4
James Loney 11073 1008 1024.5 0.091 0.093 98.4
Ross Gload 5009 462 472.5 0.092 0.094 97.8
Justin Morneau 12564 1127 1175.0 0.090 0.094 95.9
Ryan Howard 15200 1413 1487.3 0.093 0.098 95.0
Miguel Cabrera 8644 777 823.5 0.090 0.095 94.4
Mike Jacobs 6755 565 599.1 0.084 0.089 94.3
Sean Casey 5168 431 458.2 0.083 0.089 94.1
Todd Helton 13067 1175 1271.6 0.090 0.097 92.4
Ryan Garko 7416 616 667.0 0.083 0.090 92.3
Billy Butler 6015 524 568.0 0.087 0.094 92.3
Prince Fielder 15328 1355 1473.4 0.088 0.096 92.0
Nomar Garciaparra 4041 324 362.5 0.080 0.090 89.4
Conor Jackson 5935 524 591.3 0.088 0.100 88.6
Scott Hatteberg 4560 378 433.0 0.083 0.095 87.3
Adam Dunn 4546 375 439.0 0.082 0.097 85.4
Jason Giambi 5062 380 448.5 0.075 0.089 84.7

I don’t have too much to say about this list. Albert Pujols comes out on top, which is what I expected. The people lower on the list tend to be bigger, heavier, older players. No one should be surprised to see Giambi and Dunn near the bottom. I thought Carlos Pena would rank higher and Lance Berkman lower.

I would like to point out something about Albert Pujols that shows his ranking is correct, even without a model. Albert was the first fielder to touch the ball on 1659 outs from 2006-2010. The closest an entire team came to that number was 1642 by all the Angels first basemen. When someone signs him for next season, they are getting the total package, great hitter, incredible fielder.

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