The Rays may make the unusual move of leading off with their catcher, John Jaso. Photo: Icon SMI.

The series on team offense continues with the Tampa Bay Rays. The Rays finished third in the majors and the American League in offense last season, scoring 4.95 runs per game. The AL East produced the three highest scoring teams in the majors.

The CBSSportsline probable batting order gives us a feel for the type of lineup Joe Maddon is likely to use. The OBP and slugging percentage used come from the Marcel the Monkey forecast system. Plugging those numbers in the Lineup Analysis Tool (LAT) produces the following results:

• Best lineup: 5.25 runs per game
• Probable lineup: 5.15 runs per game
• Worst lineup: 4.97 runs per game
• Regressed lineup: 4.71 runs per game

I like the concept of John Jaso leading off. In a traditionally constructed lineup, his high OBP and low power makes him an ideal choice. In reality, asking a catcher to lead off leads to other problems, especially in home games where there is always an inning when the catcher needs to do a quick change to get to the plate. Although the LAT knows nothing about defensive positions, batting Jaso ninth as a secondary leadoff man makes sense.

The LAT wants Manny Ramirez leading off, due to his outstanding OBP. With Longoria projected to offer more power than Manny it would make some sense to switch them in the order. A lineup with Manny third and Evan fourth projects to score 5.18 runs per game, or about five runs more per game over a season.

Of course, Manny may have a monster year at the Trop. He brings a .623 career slugging percentage at the stadium into this season, with 25 home runs in 308 at bats, one every 12.3 at bats.

Maddon agrees with the LAT at just two positions, Dan Johnson seventh and B.J. Upton eighth. The biggest differences are with Matt Joyce and Reid Brignac. The LAT likes them much higher in the lineup. If they hit well, that move will happen naturally.

Despite losing Carl Crawford, this is still a very good lineup, right up there with the Yankees and Red Sox. Tampa Bay should score enough to support a good pitching staff and stay competitive in the AL East.

You can see the results of all the teams on this Google spreadsheet as the series progresses.

Previous articles in this series:

• New York Yankees
• Boston Red Sox

If you like the Lineup Analysis Tool or series like this, please consider donating to the Baseball Musings Pledge Drive.