The Twins need Justin Morneau to return healthy to realize their high scoring potential. Photo: Icom SMI
The series on team offense continues with the Minnesota Twins. The Twins finished sixth in the majors and fifth in the American League in offense last season, scoring 4.82 runs per game.
The CBSSportsline probable batting order gives us a feel for the type of lineup Ron Gardenhire is likely to use. The OBP and slugging percentage used come from the Marcel the Monkey forecast system. One exception was Tsuyoshi Nishioka, where I reduced his career numbers from Japan by 20 points. Plugging those numbers in the Lineup Analysis Tool (LAT) produces the following results:
- Best lineup: 5.32 runs per game
- Probable lineup: 5.21 runs per game
- Worst lineup: 4.99 runs per game
- Regressed lineup: 4.75 runs per game
This is a very good team, especially if Tsuyoshi Nishioka lives up to his Japanese offensive stats. Alexei Casilla is the only hitter that looks below average, but I’ll take a .320 OBP from my shortstop.
Joe Mauer provides a great example of the conflict between the traditional lineup and the LAT lineup. Note that the best lineup computed by the LAT puts Denard Span, Joe Mauer, Justin Mourneau and Nishioka togther, but they go 9-1-2-3 instead of 1-2-3-4. Joe and Justin’s high OBPs work best in the 1-2 slots where they get the most plate appearances, while in subsequent times through the order, Denard Span acts as a table setter for power of the two big guns.
Morneau, of course, is the key. We don’t know how much his long term recovery from the concussion he suffered last season will hurt his hitting this year. If he’s healed properly, and with Jim Thome on the bench and sometimes DH, this team has a shot at leading the AL in runs scored.
You can see the results of all the teams on this Google spreadsheet as the series progresses.
Previous articles in this series:
If you like the Lineup Analysis Tool or series like this, please consider donating to the Baseball Musings Pledge Drive.
Pingback: Major League Baseball | Minnesota Twins | SigitArinto.com