Victor Martinez hopes to add some power to the middle of the Tigers order. Photo: Icon SMI

The series on team offense continues with the Detroit Tigers. The Tigers finished eleventh in the majors and eighth in the American League in offense last season, scoring 4.64 runs per game. They scored one less run than the White Sox, so while they finished with the same per-game average, the Detroit ranks slightly below Chicago.

The CBSSportsline probable batting order gives us a feel for the type of lineup Jim Leyland is likely to use. The OBP and slugging percentage used come from the Marcel the Monkey forecast system. Plugging those numbers in the Lineup Analysis Tool (LAT) produces the following results:

• Best lineup: 5.10 runs per game
• Probable lineup: 5.09 runs per game
• Worst lineup: 4.83 runs per game
• Regressed lineup: 4.67 runs per game

As I was typing in the numbers for the probable lineup, I kept thinking, “This looks like something the LAT would produce.” Taking the numbers out to three decimal places, Leyland’s lineup is just .009 runs per game off the optimum, or less than two runs over an entire season. The best lineups use Magglio Ordonez and Miguel Cabrera at the top, but a number of the top 20 put Austin Jackson in the lead off slot, Cabrera fourth, Brandon Inge and Alex Avila at the bottom of the order, and Victor Martinez fifth. Leyland’s is a traditional order that has a second lead off man batting ninth and his worst hitter eight, with his high OBP player stacked at the top. Great job by Jim assembling this order.

Of course, reaching those numbers depends on Miguel Cabrera overcoming his legal and drinking issues to play this season. So far, he’s hitting well in spring training. Youngsters Jackson and Avila are still young enough to show a great deal of improvement, which should balance out possible declines by some of the older players on the team.

You can see the results of all the teams on this Google spreadsheet as the series progresses.

Previous articles in this series:

• New York Yankees
• Boston Red Sox
• Tampa Bay Rays
• Cincinnati Reds
• Texas Rangers
• Minnesota Twins
• Philadelphia Phillies
• Colorado Rockies
• Toronto Blue Jays
• Chicago White Sox

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