March 19, 2011

Team Offense, San Francisco Giants

BusterPosey

Buster Posey is poised to become the heart of the Giants lineup. Photo: Icon SMI.

The series on team offense continues with the San Francisco Giants. The Giants finished seventeenth in the majors and ninth in the National League in offense last season, scoring 4.30 runs per game.

The CBSSportsline probable batting order gives us a feel for the type of lineup Bruce Bochy is likely to use. The OBP and slugging percentage used come from the Marcel the Monkey forecast system, with the 2010 results used for the pitcher slot. One exception, however, is Brandon Belt. CBS sports line currently puts him in the starting lineup, but I don’t want to give him the default Marcel projection. I used the Baseball Prospectus one instead. Plugging those numbers in the Lineup Analysis Tool (LAT) produces the following results:

  • Best lineup: 4.59 runs per game
  • Probable lineup: 4.35 runs per game
  • Worst lineup: 4.03 runs per game
  • Regressed lineup: 4.15 runs per game

The Giants lineup this season is extremely tough to pin down. The best two projections belong to Buster Posey, with four months of major league service, and Brandon Belt, who might not even make the major league roster. On top of that, Pablo Sandoval is in The Best Shape of his LifeTM. In other words, it’s tough to know how this offense will shake out.

That said, it strikes me that Freddy Sanchez and Miguel Tejada should be rounding out the bottom of the order. There are two many gaps in this lineup. Aubrey Huff, Posey and Sandoval all batting one spot higher with Belt sixth would put all the big bats together and make the whole lineup a little more efficient.

Then again, this is a team built around pitching, and this lineup will likely score enough to make that pitching successful.

You can see the results of all the teams on this Google spreadsheet as the series progresses.

Previous articles in this series:

If you like the Lineup Analysis Tool or series like this, please consider donating to the Baseball Musings Pledge Drive.

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *