Team Offense, Seattle Mariners

Justin Smoak hopes to smoke the ball in 2011. Photo: Icon SMI

The series on team offense finishes with the Seattle Mariners. The Mariners finished last in the majors and the American League in offense last season, scoring 3.17 runs per game.

The CBSSportsline probable batting order Eric Wedge is likely to use. The OBP and slugging percentage used come from the Marcel the Monkey forecast system. The pitching numbers came from the actual 2010 Pirates pitcher results. Plugging those numbers in the Lineup Analysis Tool (LAT) produces the following results:

Best lineup: 4.50 runs per game
Probable lineup: 4.42 runs per game
Worst lineup: 4.16 runs per game
Regressed lineup: 4.19 runs per game

This is an interesting group of players. There’s basically no power here, but they do have four players with very good OBPs. Of course, that means believing that Milton Bradley will play enough to post a .356 OBP.

By simply nailing the number eight hitter, Jack Wilson, Wedge comes pretty close to the optimum lineup. Otherwise, it’s a bit topsy turvy. The probable lineup for the Mariners puts Bradley and Brendan Ryan in the bottom third, while the LAT moves them to the top. Ichiro Suzuki bats fifth. This would be a lineup that would never see the light of day.

After posting the worst Runs/Game since the 1981 Toronto Blue Jays (or the 1972 San Diego Padres if you prefer a team that played closer to a full season), I would expect an offensive bounce back. Maybe Justin Smoak will develop into a true power hitter, and that will help. There is age on this team however, and Chone Figgins and Bradley may not bounce back as well as the Marcels regression suggests.

You can see the results of all the teams on this Google spreadsheet as the series progresses.

Previous articles in this series:

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March 24, 2011

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