The 2011 division previews continue with the AL Central. I’ll use 2010 WAR from FanGraphs for the evaluation. I concentrate on the projected starting position players, the five man rotation, and the closer, using the CBSSports.com depth charts.

Minnesota Twins

• Position Player WAR: 23.2
• Starting Pitcher WAR: 13.8
• Closer WAR: 0.0
• Total WAR: 37.0

I really like the way the Twins are constructed. In 2010, they held three great players, Justin Morneau, Joe Mauer, and Francisco Liriano; all posted WARs over 5.0. Morneau’s was most impressive given how much of the season he missed. The didn’t just depend on those three, however, surrounding them with six other with WARs over two. Too many teams acquire a big player or two, the fail to complement them with decent teammates and don’t make the playoffs. The Twins did a great job of building a winning squad.

There is plenty of room for improvement in the numbers above as well. Joe Nathan didn’t play in 2010, so he gets a zero in the closer roll, while Tsuyoshi Nishioka comes over from Japan with a zero as well. If each of them simply put up a two WAR, the Twins go over 40.

Of course, there are downside risks as well. There’s no guarantee Morneau completely recovers from his concussion. There seems to be some worry that Francisco Liriano‘s rebuilt arm won’t hold up. My feeling, looking at the numbers, however, is that this is a floor for the core, not a ceiling. The Twins should be in the division race all the way.

Chicago White Sox

• Position Player WAR: 20.9
• Starting Pitcher WAR: 16.6
• Closer WAR: 1.0
• Total WAR: 38.5

The White Sox rotation stands out for their depth. The top four starters all collected WARs between 3.8 and 4.3 in 2010, giving them easily the best rotation in the division this year. They don’t have a superstar like Liriano or Justin Verlander, but if and when Jake Peavy gets healthy, all five could be a one or two in almost any rotation.

On offense, Paul Konerko is the most likely player to regress, since he had not posted a WAR over 4.0 since 2006. Carlos Quentin could easily make up that loss, as could improvement by Gordon Beckham. With Adam Dunn as DH, his great offense won’t be brought down by his defense any more, and he should add a double dimension of on-base and power to the lineup. Kenny Williams put together a squad more than capable of dethroning the Twins.

Detroit Tigers

• Position Player WAR: 23.9
• Starting Pitcher WAR: 14.1
• Closer WAR: 0.6
• Total WAR: 38.6

The Tigers calculate out the best core WAR in the division, just a hair in front of the White Sox. The send two 6+ WAR players onto the field in Miguel Cabrera and Justin Verlander, and like the Twins surround them with solid twos and threes. Two nice surprises for them in 2010, Austin Jackson and Max Scherzer should get better in 2011. There’s not a lot of downside for this lineup either, unless Cabrera misses time due to his legal troubles.

I’m interested in seeing how Jhonny Peralta fits in with the team. The Indians pretty much decided he wasn’t a shortstop any more, but the Tigers put him back at the position. Maybe Brandon Inge‘s excellent range can make up for some of Peralta’s short comings.

Like the Twins and White Sox, this team should be in the division race all the way.

Cleveland Indians

• Position Player WAR: 9.7
• Starting Pitcher WAR: 8.0
• Closer WAR: 0.9
• Total WAR: 18.6

There is potential upside to the position player WAR for Cleveland. They will have Carlos Santana for a full season. Matt LaPorta might live up the CC Sabathia trade. Grady Sizemore might finally be healthy. Maybe if everything goes right with those three, the Indians get six more wins from their position players, eight if the stars align perfectly. That still leaves them well short of the the top three teams in the division.

The two Ts in the back of the rotation, Josh Tomlin and Mitch Talbot have some upside as well. Both posted good K/BB ratios in the minors, mostly due to low walk numbers. Again, if everything goes right, maybe the core comes in at 30 WAR, and the Indians play .500 for the year. That strikes me as a long shot.

Kansas City Royals

• Position Player WAR: 6.8
• Starting Pitcher WAR: 6.9
• Closer WAR: 2.1
• Total WAR: 15.8

Yes, the Royals are going to be bad. Kila Ka’aihue, besides owning a very cool name, should add some offense. Luke Hochevar is at the age where his pitching talent should come to the fore. Players like Wilson Betemit, Jeff Francoeur, Jason Kendall and Melky Cabrera aren’t the ones with which teams build a winning core. If I squint real hard, there might be five or six more wins over replacement available in this bunch. For now, they are place holders until the Royals prospects are ready to make the jump to the majors.

At least the Royals own the best closer in the division. Given the quality of the team, he may not get that much work.

(By the way, did you notice that the division cornered the market on Cabreras? Asbrubal, Melky, Miguel and Orlando all play in the AL Central this year, the two middle infielders forming the keystone combination for the Indians. If the Twins or White Sox could pick up Evereth, we’d have a complete set.)

Predictions

Here’s how I see the odds of the five teams winning the division:

1. Minnesota Twins 31%
2. Chicago White Sox 30%
3. Detroit Tigers 29%
4. Cleveland Indians 6%
5. Kansas City Royals 4%

The Twins, White Sox and Tigers are about as even as three teams can be. It strikes me that the Twins have the most upside in their core numbers. I like the evenness of the White Sox rotation and lineup over the star power of the Tigers. The three teams should really beat up on the Indians and Royals, so look for a tight 1-2-3 race, with those three teams ending with huge leads over the two trailers.