The 2011 division previews continue with the AL West. I’ll use 2010 WAR from FanGraphs for the evaluation. I concentrate on the projected starting position players, the five man rotation, and the closer, using the CBSSports.com depth charts.

Texas Rangers

• Position Player WAR: 32.3
• Starting Pitcher WAR: 9.5
• Closer WAR: 1.7
• Total WAR: 43.5

The Rangers look to put an outstanding offense/defense on the field for 2011. The boast three players, Josh Hamilton, Adrian Beltre, and Nelson Cruz who accumulated 5+ WAR in 2010, Beltre and Hamilton both over seven. I don’t expect either of them to reach that level again, simply due to both their number being out of line with their careers. They could easily combine to give back six wins. Even with that it’s a solid lineup, with upside potential from Mitch Moreland, Elvis Andrus Julio Borbon as they mature.

The rotation is a bit more iffy, with C.J. Wilson and Colby Lewis turning in excellent 2010 seasons, but the back of the rotation did not contribute much last season. Michael Kirkman gets the fifth slot. He’s a high strikeout pitcher with a high walk rate. He can live with that if he keeps his home runs down, something not that easy to do in Texas. I suspect the signing of Adrian Beltre is as much to help these pitchers defensively as to help the offense.

Of course, the team could have gone with Neftali Feliz as a starter. He may get there eventually. My suggestion is to use him two innings in game to stretch him out for starting next year. That won’t happen, however. The days of Goose Gossage pitching that much are over.

My feeling is the WAR about overestimates the core of the team a bit, but not enough to keep them out of contention.

Oakland Athletics

• Position Player WAR: 26.3
• Starting Pitcher WAR: 11.0
• Closer WAR: 1.0
• Total WAR: 38.8

Looking at the individual player totals for the A’s in 2010, I’m surprised they only finished around .500. They had lots of solid twos and threes, but no one outstanding. A lot of those twos and three came from defense as well. They did not add any outstanding players to their roster, but another solid group of two and threes.

That’s just fine. If the team can average 2.5 WAR per core player, that will bring them into the mid 80s in terms of wins. That’s pretty much what they have at a 39 core WAR. I would like this team a lot better if they trotted out a real big bat or a dominant pitcher, however. It’s a team of complementary players on both sides of the ball. There’s not a lot of upside here, but if three or four players have down years, they lose a chance at making the playoffs.

The way things look, they should be right with the Rangers, who have more downside to their lineup.

Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim

• Position Player WAR: 14.7
• Starting Pitcher WAR: 15.1
• Closer WAR: 0.3
• Total WAR: 30.1

The Angels own the best pitching in the division, with two studs at the top of the rotation in Jered Weaver and Dan Haren. The only weak spot in the starting five is Scott Kazmir, who seems to be falling rapidly out his place as a starter.

It’s unusual to see the pitching staff with a higher WAR than the position players, but the Angels accomplished that. Part of the problem is the injury status of Kendrys Morales puts Mark Trumbo at first base. If he should be there an extended length of time, it’s likely the offense will suffer. On top of that, there’s a huge downside to Vernon Wells. He did play well in 2010, but his record since signing his big contract is less than stellar. Penciling him in as a 4.0 WAR player is quite optimistic.

Peter Bourjos, on the other hand, gives the Angels a possible upside. His OBP in the minors was good, so he might morph into a decent leadoff hitter.

So if the Angels can get Morales back quickly, and Kazmir can find his control again, they have a shot at a winning record. With good pitching, a team doesn’t need to score big to win, and Mike Scioscia has shown over the years he’s good at getting the most out of his offense. I don’t think the Angels will compete, but history tells me not to count them out.

Seattle Mariners

• Position Player WAR: 14.3
• Starting Pitcher WAR: 11.7
• Closer WAR: 0.4
• Total WAR: 26.4

The good news is that the Mariners will almost certainly be better than in 2010. They may even rate as the best rotation in the division as Erik Bedard seems to be recovered from his injuries and top prospect Michael Pineda enters the rotation. Each of them count zero in the starting pitching above since they didn’t play in the majors in 2010. A 2.0 WAR from each would boost the Seattle rotation past LAnaheim.

Unfortunately, there’s not much to say about the position players. Chone Figgins moves back to third, a more comfortable position for him. That might relax him enough to hit better than he did in 2010. A good Figgins coupled with Ichiro Suzuki would give the Mariners two good table setters.

Will there be anyone to drive them in, however? Justin Smoak has tons of upside, as does Milton Bradley if he stays out of trouble. Jack Cust still gets on base a good deal, but he lost the power one likes to see in a designated hitter. I really have to stretch my imagination to get this core to 30 WAR, and that’s not going to be enough to win the division.

Predictions:

Here’s how I see the odds of the teams winning the division:

1. Texas Rangers 45%
2. Oakland Athletics 35%
3. Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim 18%
4. Seattle Mariners 2%

I would really like to pick the Athletics, but I really don’t see them being much more than a group of good players. Texas has holes in the starting rotation, but they seem to be willing to cover them with relief pitching. I trust the Rangers know what they are doing, so I’ll give them the benefit of the doubt here. I would not be surprised if it was a much closer race than I’m indicating here.