Two years ago I developed a probabilistic model of game scores to study why Bert Blyleven was not seen as a dominant pitcher. That came to mind last night as CC Sabathia pitched seven stellar innings, but didn’t get the win as the bullpen blew the game. Milliliter posted a game score of 78, and as it turns out that meant he had a 78% chance of winning the game, a 9% chance of losing the game, and a 13% chance of a no decision. He rolled the 13.

I can’t complain too much about the decision to remove CC. He threw 104 pitches, the season is young, and the man is coming off knee surgery. When a team goes to the bullpen, however, there’s always the chance of getting a pitcher on a bad night, and that’s what happened to Rafael Soriano. He pitched Monday and kept the ball away from the four left-handed batters he faced and stayed in the strike zone:

Rafael Soriano pitch frequency April 4, 2011. Graph: Baseball Analytics

Tuesday night, he was wild.

Rafael Soriano pitch frequency April 5, 2011. Graph: Baseball Analytics

So CC lost his chance at a win due to a relief pitcher having a poor night.

Sabathia may be the best candidate among active pitchers to reach 300 wins. He started at a young age. He already won 157 games. He is durable. CC pitches deep into games, and he plays for a team that scores a lot of runs. Missing out on wins in a game like Tuesday’s really hurts the climb.

Fortunately, we don’t need to feel too bad for the big southpaw. Over his career, he’s had more good luck than bad. Based on game scores, he should be 141-101 instead of 157-88. Seven of those extra wins came since he joined the Yankees, so Tuesday game was CC’s luck evening out a bit. That’s one reason he shouldn’t opt out of his contract; his best chance of reaching 300 wins is with the New York offense backing his pitching.

Thanks to Baseball Analytics for the heat maps.