Thursday night saw two more game in which the total runs scored totaled three or less. The Padres managed to lower their league leading ERA, but lost the game to the Astros 1-0. Gio Gonzalez took his ERA down to 0.47, but the Athletics fell to the Tigers 3-0. The percentage of 3 run games is in line with the 2010 season, but out of whack with the high scoring era that started in 1993:
Season | Three Run Games | Total Games | Percentage |
2011 | 19 | 182 | 10.4 |
2010 | 256 | 2430 | 10.5 |
2009 | 201 | 2430 | 8.3 |
2008 | 209 | 2428 | 8.6 |
2007 | 192 | 2431 | 7.9 |
2006 | 191 | 2429 | 7.9 |
2005 | 232 | 2431 | 9.5 |
2004 | 182 | 2428 | 7.5 |
2003 | 205 | 2430 | 8.4 |
2002 | 213 | 2426 | 8.8 |
2001 | 193 | 2429 | 7.9 |
2000 | 167 | 2429 | 6.9 |
1999 | 166 | 2428 | 6.8 |
1998 | 186 | 2432 | 7.6 |
1997 | 199 | 2266 | 8.8 |
1996 | 163 | 2267 | 7.2 |
1995 | 158 | 2017 | 7.8 |
1994 | 99 | 1600 | 6.2 |
1993 | 197 | 2269 | 8.7 |
1992 | 266 | 2106 | 12.6 |
1991 | 248 | 2104 | 11.8 |
1990 | 228 | 2105 | 10.8 |
1989 | 244 | 2106 | 11.6 |
1988 | 260 | 2100 | 12.4 |
1987 | 166 | 2105 | 7.9 |
1986 | 213 | 2103 | 10.1 |
1985 | 215 | 2103 | 10.2 |
1984 | 231 | 2105 | 11.0 |
1983 | 209 | 2109 | 9.9 |
1982 | 205 | 2107 | 9.7 |
1981 | 175 | 1394 | 12.6 |
1980 | 246 | 2105 | 11.7 |
1979 | 216 | 2098 | 10.3 |
1978 | 281 | 2102 | 13.4 |
1977 | 183 | 2103 | 8.7 |
1976 | 301 | 1939 | 15.5 |
1975 | 206 | 1934 | 10.7 |
1974 | 245 | 1945 | 12.6 |
1973 | 239 | 1943 | 12.3 |
1972 | 342 | 1859 | 18.4 |
1971 | 302 | 1938 | 15.6 |
1970 | 212 | 1944 | 10.9 |
1969 | 247 | 1946 | 12.7 |
1968 | 345 | 1623 | 21.3 |
1967 | 261 | 1620 | 16.1 |
1966 | 234 | 1615 | 14.5 |
1965 | 224 | 1622 | 13.8 |
1964 | 251 | 1626 | 15.4 |
1963 | 238 | 1619 | 14.7 |
1962 | 177 | 1621 | 10.9 |
1961 | 142 | 1430 | 9.9 |
1960 | 136 | 1236 | 11.0 |
1959 | 133 | 1238 | 10.7 |
1958 | 139 | 1235 | 11.3 |
1957 | 133 | 1235 | 10.8 |
Note that compared to most of the seasons before 1993, these last two seasons would still be considered high scoring. From 1957 through 1993, there were only eight season with a lower percentage of three-run games. We’ll see how long this lasts, but it appears the majors are cycling back to a better balance between pitching and hitting.
The majors are definitely cycling back to lower ticket sales. The depressing attendance tracker on baseball-reference.com shows a four percent decline so far this year. Looks like baseball may be headed for four straight seasons of lower attendance.
Yes, I know it’s early, and there’s always a chance for a rebound. But spring training attendance was down, too, and there’s certainly no big attendance uptick in sight.
While this season’s 8.8 runs per game and .717 OPS are not particulrly low by historic standards, the fans got spoiled by the high offense of the steroids era. Now that the big bash is gone, they’re spending less on tickets. No surprise, especially with baseball’s long-tern decline in popularity and a still very iffy economy.
By the way, the 1957-1992 period included some of the lowest scoring years ever in baseball, including the second-deadball era of the sixties and early seventies. The DH helped revive offense to some extent, as did a lower mound, smaller strike zone, and restrictions on beanballs. Offense began to climb out of the cellar.
Baseball finally decided to let things really rip in 1993 because of the game’s obvious decline in popularity relative to football, basketball and other sports. A blind eye was turned to steroids, the Glavine strike became somewhat less common, and I believe the ball may have been juiced.
After the calamitous 1994 season baseball had no choice but to let all these changes continue, just as the game used much higher offense to recover from the equally catastrophic 1919 Black Sox scandal. Sure enough, the bash and crash brought attendance back to all-time highs.
But now the wizards in control of the game have decided they don’t need big offense any more. In the short term, they may be right. Baseball revenues remain strong. But they can’t just let ticket sales go on declining forever. At some point I think baseball will restore some offense to the game.
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