April 15, 2011

Low Scoring Season

Thursday night saw two more game in which the total runs scored totaled three or less. The Padres managed to lower their league leading ERA, but lost the game to the Astros 1-0. Gio Gonzalez took his ERA down to 0.47, but the Athletics fell to the Tigers 3-0. The percentage of 3 run games is in line with the 2010 season, but out of whack with the high scoring era that started in 1993:

Season Three Run Games Total Games Percentage
2011 19 182 10.4
2010 256 2430 10.5
2009 201 2430 8.3
2008 209 2428 8.6
2007 192 2431 7.9
2006 191 2429 7.9
2005 232 2431 9.5
2004 182 2428 7.5
2003 205 2430 8.4
2002 213 2426 8.8
2001 193 2429 7.9
2000 167 2429 6.9
1999 166 2428 6.8
1998 186 2432 7.6
1997 199 2266 8.8
1996 163 2267 7.2
1995 158 2017 7.8
1994 99 1600 6.2
1993 197 2269 8.7
1992 266 2106 12.6
1991 248 2104 11.8
1990 228 2105 10.8
1989 244 2106 11.6
1988 260 2100 12.4
1987 166 2105 7.9
1986 213 2103 10.1
1985 215 2103 10.2
1984 231 2105 11.0
1983 209 2109 9.9
1982 205 2107 9.7
1981 175 1394 12.6
1980 246 2105 11.7
1979 216 2098 10.3
1978 281 2102 13.4
1977 183 2103 8.7
1976 301 1939 15.5
1975 206 1934 10.7
1974 245 1945 12.6
1973 239 1943 12.3
1972 342 1859 18.4
1971 302 1938 15.6
1970 212 1944 10.9
1969 247 1946 12.7
1968 345 1623 21.3
1967 261 1620 16.1
1966 234 1615 14.5
1965 224 1622 13.8
1964 251 1626 15.4
1963 238 1619 14.7
1962 177 1621 10.9
1961 142 1430 9.9
1960 136 1236 11.0
1959 133 1238 10.7
1958 139 1235 11.3
1957 133 1235 10.8

Note that compared to most of the seasons before 1993, these last two seasons would still be considered high scoring. From 1957 through 1993, there were only eight season with a lower percentage of three-run games. We’ll see how long this lasts, but it appears the majors are cycling back to a better balance between pitching and hitting.

3 thoughts on “Low Scoring Season

  1. Casey Abell

    The majors are definitely cycling back to lower ticket sales. The depressing attendance tracker on baseball-reference.com shows a four percent decline so far this year. Looks like baseball may be headed for four straight seasons of lower attendance.

    Yes, I know it’s early, and there’s always a chance for a rebound. But spring training attendance was down, too, and there’s certainly no big attendance uptick in sight.

    While this season’s 8.8 runs per game and .717 OPS are not particulrly low by historic standards, the fans got spoiled by the high offense of the steroids era. Now that the big bash is gone, they’re spending less on tickets. No surprise, especially with baseball’s long-tern decline in popularity and a still very iffy economy.

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  2. Casey Abell

    By the way, the 1957-1992 period included some of the lowest scoring years ever in baseball, including the second-deadball era of the sixties and early seventies. The DH helped revive offense to some extent, as did a lower mound, smaller strike zone, and restrictions on beanballs. Offense began to climb out of the cellar.

    Baseball finally decided to let things really rip in 1993 because of the game’s obvious decline in popularity relative to football, basketball and other sports. A blind eye was turned to steroids, the Glavine strike became somewhat less common, and I believe the ball may have been juiced.

    After the calamitous 1994 season baseball had no choice but to let all these changes continue, just as the game used much higher offense to recover from the equally catastrophic 1919 Black Sox scandal. Sure enough, the bash and crash brought attendance back to all-time highs.

    But now the wizards in control of the game have decided they don’t need big offense any more. In the short term, they may be right. Baseball revenues remain strong. But they can’t just let ticket sales go on declining forever. At some point I think baseball will restore some offense to the game.

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