July 21, 2011

Runs Update

Sixteen weeks into the season, scoring remains one half run lower than at the same point in 2010. The majors averaged 8.9 runs per game through July 25, 2010, 8.4 runs per game this season. The drop in walks and non-home run hits remain the biggest culprits, walks down 0.3 per game, non-home run hits down 0.4 per game. Per 100 games, we’re seeing 10 fewer homers, 30 fewer walks, and 40 fewer singles+doubles+triples. With fewer base runners, the home runs hit are producing 1.56 runs per homer, as opposed to 1.59 runs per homer last season.

4 thoughts on “Runs Update

  1. Casey Abell

    This year’s all-time high strikeout-to-walk ratio explains it all, as Clarissa might say. The ratio’s up to a ridiculous 2.23, even above last year’s absurd (and previous all-time high) 2.17.

    With the huge strike zone, fewer hitters reach base or make good contact as they have to chase worse pitches. Frankly, it’s remarkable that scoring has held above eight runs per game with this year’s wildly out-of-control zone.

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  2. Jacob

    walks (0.33 runs) down .3/g equates to a .099 r/g drop in offense, or almost 20%.

    hits (~0.55 runs) down .4/g equates to a .221 r/g drop in offense, or almost 45%.

    hrs (1.41 runs) down .1/g equate to a .141 r/g drop in offense, or almost 30%

    where’s the last 5%?

    it would take a .13/g drop in sb, a .05/g drop in rboe, a .06/g drop in hbp, or a .25/g drop in ibb to make up that remaining 5% (or obviously some combination of all of them).

    seems like defense and pitching are improved, with defense improving faster than pitching (based on walks vs. hits drops), i’ll guess a drop in rboe accounts for more of that remaining 5% that the others.

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