November 9, 2011

Low Years, High Money

Via MetsBlog.com, the Marlins may offer Jose Reyes a low years, high salary contract:

Yet Mets people on Tuesday privately downplayed the significance of the Marlins’ aggressiveness. One person said he heard they plan to offer Reyes only a three-year deal at a high annual average, presumably more than $20 million a year.

It seems to me these contracts make much more sense for an injury prone player. If healthy, Jose is probably worth $25 million a year. Factor in the injury risk, plus his likely decline over a long-term contract, and $22 million a year makes more sense.

If the Marlins pay him $25 million a year for three years (or even $30 million), however, they limit their downside due to injury. Reyes can then prove he can stay healthy, and then get the longer term $22 million a year deal. I’d do a similar deal with Albert Pujols at this point, paying him $200 million for five years.

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