Jonathan Papelbon agreed to a contract with the Philadelphia Phillies.
Jon Heyman of SI.com reports that Papelbon is guaranteed $50 million over four years while the vesting option is believed to be easily attainable.
If you were somehow on the fence about this deal being excessive, this should push you overboard and then some. Jayson Stark of ESPN.com reports that Papelbon will also receive a vesting option for a fifth year which would make the total package worth more than $60 million.
Seems about right. Papelbon’s strikeout and walk rates are still great. He’s definitely in Mariano Rivera territory, and moving out of the AL East could even make his stats look better. He will be 32 in 2012, but he shows no signs of slowing down. I’d rather have him than Ryan Madson.
On the other hand, the Phillies have needs other than a closer. It would have been a lot cheaper to give Antonio Bastardo the ball to see what he could do in the role. This move does not make the team any younger, either. Basically, the Phillies paid a fair price, but it may not be the best way to spend their money.
Umm, no. He’s nowhere near Rivera territory. Rivera territory is being consistent; he’s been the most consistent (and consistently excellent) reliever around – and basically the only one.
Relief pitchers have value, and having good ones is more valuable, but they are (almost) universally volatile. It’s just too easy to have a small mechanical issue, bad meal, etc. that derails you for 4-5 innings (which is about 10% of a short reliever’s total workload). Giving up an extra run in 5 innings would nearly double his ERA and blown-save totals; harsh, but that’s the price of small sample sizes.
Look at the history of buying a “proven closer” on the free-agent market. It is not pretty – not pretty at all. Remember Mark Davis? Fransisco Rodriguez? Brian Fuentes?
Signing relievers to big dollar deals is making high-risk/low-reward bets. You might come up with the next Rivera – but so far there’s only one, and not much hope for another.
Also, he’s 31. Well, he’s a week or two short of 31. Sure, Rivera was absolutely fantastic after his 31st birthday, but, well, what Subrata said.
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