I recently downloaded the MYSQL version of the retrosheet database, and am ready to look at the objective probabilistic model of range (PMR). It’s objective since it does not include the subjective vector and hard hit parameters that reporters enter in both the STATS and BIS data. In other words, the models for objective PMR just use batter handedness, pitcher handedness, batted ball type, and park to build the model. I’m using data from 2005-2011 for visiting teams only for model. Note that this means that 2011 fielding has no influence on the models.

As with the normal PMR model, I’m measuring the defensive efficiency record (DER) of the team against the expected DER. The following table shows the results for the 30 teams.

If you look at the ranking of the teams using UZR/150, there is some agreement between the two systems. Four of the top five teams in objective PMR also ranke in the top five in UZR/150. There is a glaring difference, however, and that’s the Cleveland Indians. UZR ranks the Indians as the 2nd poorest fielding team in the majors, while objective PMR ranks them second. Where are the differences?

As you can see, UZR does not rank ranges for pitchers and catchers, and PMR rated both those positions well for the Indians. Apart from that, most positions are in decent agreement. Both systems rank the shortstops poorly and the third basemen well. The two biggest discrepancies occur at first base and rightfield. I’m not arguing that one is right and one is wrong. It could be that a bias exists in that direction on the field. Maybe it’s the camera angle, so the balls to that side of the field look easier to field than they actually are. On the other hand, the vectors and batted ball velocities may add important information to the model that knocks the Indians down.

It could also be both those effects are in place, and the Indians real fielding value lies somewhere between the two.

The big differences make for the most interesting comparisons. I’d love to be able to dig deeper into this to see what the distribution of fly balls and ground balls is for the Indians, to see which model is doing a better job of creating a model.

I’ll continue this series looking at teams and fielders by position.

The information used here was obtained free of charge from and is copyrighted by Retrosheet. Interested parties may contact Retrosheet at 20 Sunset Rd., Newark, DE 19711.