February 27, 2012

Objective PMR, Shortstops

3 Replies

The series on objective probabilistic model of range (PMR) continues by looking at shortstops. I’ll show teams as a whole at the position, plus individuals who were on the field for 1000 balls in play. First the teams:

Objective PMR, team shortstops, 2011. Model built on data from 2005-2010, visiting teams only.
Team In Play Actual Outs Predicted Outs Actual DER Predicted DER Index
BAL 3200 585 505.6 0.183 0.158 115.7
CIN 3084 537 482.9 0.174 0.157 111.2
TEX 3057 539 491.0 0.176 0.161 109.8
ATL 3010 525 482.3 0.174 0.160 108.9
CHN 3045 519 477.8 0.170 0.157 108.6
SEA 3195 540 498.9 0.169 0.156 108.2
SFN 1479 249 230.7 0.168 0.156 107.9
ANA 3196 537 510.6 0.168 0.160 105.2
COL 3060 514 488.7 0.168 0.160 105.2
SDN 2917 484 461.5 0.166 0.158 104.9
DET 3128 501 478.3 0.160 0.153 104.7
PIT 1628 278 265.8 0.171 0.163 104.6
CHA 3288 526 506.3 0.160 0.154 103.9
HOU 2984 495 477.4 0.166 0.160 103.7
TBA 3245 486 476.2 0.150 0.147 102.1
KCA 3225 539 529.0 0.167 0.164 101.9
WAS 3218 518 508.3 0.161 0.158 101.9
PHI 3262 507 498.5 0.155 0.153 101.7
ARI 3211 494 489.9 0.154 0.153 100.8
TOR 3212 505 503.8 0.157 0.157 100.2
MIL 2992 461 462.3 0.154 0.155 99.7
LAN 2776 443 449.9 0.160 0.162 98.5
SLN 3238 489 505.4 0.151 0.156 96.8
BOS 3021 469 489.2 0.155 0.162 95.9
MIN 3261 505 538.7 0.155 0.165 93.7
OAK 3185 476 515.2 0.149 0.162 92.4
FLO 3381 440 481.2 0.130 0.142 91.4
CLE 3374 469 535.2 0.139 0.159 87.6
NYN 3271 486 558.0 0.149 0.171 87.1
NYA 3190 426 499.3 0.134 0.157 85.3

As you can see, it was a bad year to be a shortstop in New York. You can also see that in the individual numbers:

Objective PMR, individual shortstops, 2011. Model built on data from 2005-2010, visiting teams only.
Fielder In Play Actual Outs Predicted Outs Actual DER Predicted DER Index
Paul Janish 1528 272 238.3 0.178 0.156 114.2
Brendan Ryan 2346 408 364.6 0.174 0.155 111.9
Alex Gonzalez 2667 476 427.2 0.178 0.160 111.4
J.J. Hardy 2508 433 392.1 0.173 0.156 110.4
Rafael Furcal 1479 246 226.0 0.166 0.153 108.9
Starlin Castro 2975 505 466.8 0.170 0.157 108.2
Elvis Andrus 2672 467 432.8 0.175 0.162 107.9
Edgar Renteria 1368 232 216.1 0.170 0.158 107.4
Clint Barmes 2122 361 337.4 0.170 0.159 107.0
Ronny Cedeno 1243 218 204.5 0.175 0.164 106.6
Reid Brignac 1550 246 231.5 0.159 0.149 106.3
Troy Tulowitzki 2565 429 407.2 0.167 0.159 105.3
Alexei Ramirez 3119 503 479.7 0.161 0.154 104.9
Erick Aybar 2784 461 442.6 0.166 0.159 104.2
Jimmy Rollins 2681 426 414.4 0.159 0.155 102.8
Alcides Escobar 3090 518 506.6 0.168 0.164 102.3
Jason Bartlett 2449 395 386.7 0.161 0.158 102.2
Yuniesky Betancourt 2661 421 412.9 0.158 0.155 102.0
Jhonny Peralta 2708 422 415.8 0.156 0.154 101.5
Ian Desmond 2930 464 463.7 0.158 0.158 100.1
Stephen Drew 1650 248 247.7 0.150 0.150 100.1
Yunel Escobar 2474 378 388.1 0.153 0.157 97.4
Tsuyoshi Nishioka 1134 180 185.8 0.159 0.164 96.9
Ryan Theriot 1702 259 268.8 0.152 0.158 96.3
Marco Scutaro 1920 301 314.2 0.157 0.164 95.8
Emilio Bonifacio 1338 180 190.5 0.135 0.142 94.5
Willie Bloomquist 1074 157 166.8 0.146 0.155 94.1
Cliff Pennington 2800 412 452.7 0.147 0.162 91.0
Hanley Ramirez 1726 220 244.4 0.127 0.142 90.0
Jamey Carroll 1018 142 162.8 0.139 0.160 87.2
Asdrubal Cabrera 3085 423 488.3 0.137 0.158 86.6
Jose Reyes 2471 363 421.9 0.147 0.171 86.0
Derek Jeter 2294 303 358.7 0.132 0.156 84.5

Jim Leyland praised Jhonny Peralta’s defense the other day, and this chart shows he has a point. I don’t think there are that many surprises at the top of the list. Cliff Pennington has to be a disappointment. He’s not a great hitter, so he needs to be a great fielder to be valuable. It really is amazing that no matter how you measure Jeter’s defense, he just doesn’t get to that many balls.

The thing that really stands out, however, is the left-side of the Marlins infield. Jose Reyes and Hanley Ramirez were among the worst shortstops in the majors in 2011. Now they are going to be patrolling that whole side together. Mark Buehrle might be in for an unpleasant surprise this year.

The information used here was obtained free of charge from and is copyrighted by Retrosheet. Interested parties may contact Retrosheet at 20 Sunset Rd., Newark, DE 19711.

3 thoughts on “Objective PMR, Shortstops”

  1. Lee [ Cowboy ]

    David: I would genuinely like to learn & grow in regards to some of the more sophisticated sabermetrics. I do struggle with, though, that for example: I watch Troy Tulowitzki play150’ish games a year & cannot envision a shortstop w/ more range. Can you help me better understand? / I would be interested in knowing how some of the following players would fare: Ozzie Smith, Omar Visquel, Mike Schmidt, Brooks Robinson, Ken Griffey Jr., and Jim Edmonds. / I have no argumentative stance here. I am only trying to wrap my mind around that which I have seen and putting that with sabermetrics and coming up with a correlation that absolutely works. Help?? :}

    PS/ Your video was definitely informative. / I truly enjoy visiting Baseball Musings daily …

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  2. Plank

    I’m not Dave, but Tulo’s 105.3 means he was above average, so what you saw with your eyes lines up well with these numbers.

    If you think Tulo is the best fielding SS in the league, I would have to disagree. People tend to have a positive bias toward players they see play every game. Maybe that could explain another part of the discrepancy between how you feel and his ranking here.

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