February 27, 2012

Objective PMR, Second Basemen

The series on objective probabilistic model of range (PMR) continues by looking at second basemen. I’ll show teams as a whole at the position, plus individuals who were on the field for 1000 balls in play. First the teams:

Objective PMR, team second baseman, 2011. Model built on data from 2005-2010, visiting teams only.
Team In Play Actual Outs Predicted Outs Actual DER Predicted DER Index
FLO 3122 589 493.3 0.189 0.158 119.4
PHI 3099 528 471.3 0.170 0.152 112.0
NYA 3208 539 490.6 0.168 0.153 109.9
SLN 3208 510 466.2 0.159 0.145 109.4
WAS 3219 503 471.9 0.156 0.147 106.6
CHA 3282 546 521.5 0.166 0.159 104.7
TEX 3048 512 490.4 0.168 0.161 104.4
ARI 2955 449 429.9 0.152 0.145 104.4
CHN 3024 480 460.7 0.159 0.152 104.2
BOS 3018 496 483.3 0.164 0.160 102.6
SEA 3189 514 502.0 0.161 0.157 102.4
NYN 3223 503 492.8 0.156 0.153 102.1
TOR 3213 509 502.3 0.158 0.156 101.3
OAK 3168 519 512.8 0.164 0.162 101.2
HOU 2964 437 432.4 0.147 0.146 101.1
TBA 3018 494 490.7 0.164 0.163 100.7
MIL 2969 440 439.0 0.148 0.148 100.2
COL 3044 468 468.2 0.154 0.154 100.0
CIN 3064 463 464.1 0.151 0.151 99.8
MIN 3249 532 536.1 0.164 0.165 99.2
ATL 3035 463 467.7 0.153 0.154 99.0
LAN 2748 422 432.0 0.154 0.157 97.7
ANA 3196 527 540.1 0.165 0.169 97.6
KCA 3224 507 524.8 0.157 0.163 96.6
CLE 3366 519 538.9 0.154 0.160 96.3
DET 3132 486 510.9 0.155 0.163 95.1
BAL 3416 492 521.3 0.144 0.153 94.4
SDN 2890 438 467.2 0.152 0.162 93.8
SFN 1457 211 226.5 0.145 0.155 93.2
PIT 1622 209 238.3 0.129 0.147 87.7

While the Yankees and Marlins didn’t produce much range at shortstop, they made up for it with great range at second base. Philadelphia remains high despite Chase Utley‘s injury. Employing veteran second basemen didn’t help the Giants and Padres much.

The individuals:

Objective PMR, individual second basemen, 2011. Model built on data from 2005-2010, visiting teams only.
Fielder In Play Actual Outs Predicted Outs Actual DER Predicted DER Index
Omar Infante 2730 526 433.5 0.193 0.159 121.3
Chase Utley 1778 313 266.3 0.176 0.150 117.5
Skip Schumaker 1608 262 229.5 0.163 0.143 114.2
Robinson Cano 2954 495 450.5 0.168 0.153 109.9
Darwin Barney 2265 378 344.2 0.167 0.152 109.8
Ian Kinsler 2694 466 430.3 0.173 0.160 108.3
Danny Espinosa 3096 489 454.9 0.158 0.147 107.5
Gordon Beckham 2918 494 463.1 0.169 0.159 106.7
Mark Ellis 2313 395 371.5 0.171 0.161 106.3
Dustin Pedroia 2874 476 458.8 0.166 0.160 103.7
Jeff Keppinger 1055 165 159.7 0.156 0.151 103.3
Jemile Weeks 1857 303 294.3 0.163 0.158 103.0
Alexi Casilla 1003 176 172.1 0.175 0.172 102.2
Aaron Hill 2588 410 401.9 0.158 0.155 102.0
Justin Turner 1461 221 218.2 0.151 0.149 101.3
Orlando Cabrera 1582 260 257.4 0.164 0.163 101.0
Ben Zobrist 2206 359 358.2 0.163 0.162 100.2
Dan Uggla 2943 455 455.6 0.155 0.155 99.9
Chris Getz 1961 316 318.2 0.161 0.162 99.3
Dustin Ackley 1706 267 269.4 0.157 0.158 99.1
Brandon Phillips 2783 412 418.9 0.148 0.151 98.4
Howie Kendrick 1999 326 332.8 0.163 0.166 98.0
Orlando Hudson 1848 305 312.9 0.165 0.169 97.5
Rickie Weeks 2035 286 295.9 0.141 0.145 96.6
Kelly Johnson 2583 364 377.1 0.141 0.146 96.5
Robert Andino 1744 250 259.7 0.143 0.149 96.3
Jamey Carroll 1020 153 159.9 0.150 0.157 95.7
Neil Walker 1550 202 226.9 0.130 0.146 89.0

I’m very impressed that Chase held up so well despite his age and injuries. Orlando Hudson lost a lot of ground over the years. Looking at the list, there are quite a few second basemen who hit and field well, especially Utley, Cano, Kinsler, and Pedroia. We’ll see how far up the list Jemile Weeks and Dustin Ackley move playing a full season.

5 thoughts on “Objective PMR, Second Basemen

  1. Subrata Sircar

    The big news here is that Skip Schumaker was good and the Cardinals numbers bear it out.

    ReplyReply
  2. James

    Huh, so Cano has a *lot* more range than Pedroia.
    Oh, but when are you going to post your Objective PMG? (Probabilistic Model of Grit)

    ReplyReply
  3. pft

    I am surprised to see Cano ranked so high. I thought he looked dismal in the field last year due to the weight he gained in his offseason workouts.

    Pedroia is hard to figure. He is diving for balls so much it almost looks like he could make 1/2 of those plays w/o diving and that he is showboating. Still, I think he should be ranked higher than Cano, and certainly Kinsler.

    ReplyReply
  4. Plank

    I presume you are a Red Sox fan. How else could you think Pedroia looks better than Cano? Cano has always looked good to me.

    ReplyReply

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