February 28, 2012

Objective PMR, Centerfielders

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The series on objective probabilistic model of range (PMR) continues by looking at centerfielders. I’ll show teams as a whole at the position, plus individuals who were on the field for 1000 balls in play. First the teams:

Team In Play Actual Outs Predicted Outs Actual DER Predicted DER Index
PIT 1477 209 184.0 0.142 0.125 113.6
CHA 3206 424 389.9 0.132 0.122 108.7
MIN 2968 459 422.9 0.155 0.142 108.5
MIL 2760 412 381.4 0.149 0.138 108.0
SLN 2792 391 361.9 0.140 0.130 108.0
HOU 2696 388 359.5 0.144 0.133 107.9
COL 2300 388 362.6 0.169 0.158 107.0
PHI 2610 366 343.3 0.140 0.132 106.6
CHN 2882 362 344.6 0.126 0.120 105.1
NYN 2677 389 376.3 0.145 0.141 103.4
SEA 2513 434 421.7 0.173 0.168 102.9
SDN 3021 390 383.4 0.129 0.127 101.7
CIN 2799 377 373.4 0.135 0.133 101.0
ATL 2926 369 367.3 0.126 0.126 100.5
OAK 2361 395 393.6 0.167 0.167 100.4
FLO 3232 384 384.7 0.119 0.119 99.8
DET 3376 422 425.6 0.125 0.126 99.2
ANA 3505 416 420.5 0.119 0.120 98.9
TBA 3204 420 426.9 0.131 0.133 98.4
SFN 1357 195 199.4 0.144 0.147 97.8
BOS 3338 407 420.0 0.122 0.126 96.9
WAS 2771 396 410.4 0.143 0.148 96.5
CLE 3701 390 404.4 0.105 0.109 96.4
TEX 2714 398 415.4 0.147 0.153 95.8
NYA 2624 387 411.3 0.147 0.157 94.1
LAN 2784 337 360.0 0.121 0.129 93.6
BAL 2996 421 452.3 0.141 0.151 93.1
TOR 3064 392 432.2 0.128 0.141 90.7
ARI 3067 382 423.4 0.125 0.138 90.2
KCA 3188 373 426.3 0.117 0.134 87.5

The individuals:

Fielder In Play Actual Outs Predicted Outs Actual DER Predicted DER Index
Andrew McCutchen 1325 198 167.0 0.149 0.126 118.6
Jon Jay 1033 153 130.9 0.148 0.127 116.9
Denard Span 1251 206 176.5 0.165 0.141 116.7
Jordan Schafer 1225 181 158.4 0.148 0.129 114.2
Carlos Gomez 1119 179 157.2 0.160 0.141 113.8
Dexter Fowler 1656 283 258.0 0.171 0.156 109.7
Nyjer Morgan 1354 202 186.3 0.149 0.138 108.5
Shane Victorino 1998 284 262.7 0.142 0.131 108.1
Marlon Byrd 1884 248 234.0 0.132 0.124 106.0
Ben Revere 1563 237 224.4 0.152 0.144 105.6
Alex Rios 2712 349 332.5 0.129 0.123 105.0
Cameron Maybin 2386 318 303.5 0.133 0.127 104.8
Coco Crisp 1800 311 300.1 0.173 0.167 103.6
Franklin Gutierrez 1310 237 228.9 0.181 0.175 103.5
Angel Pagan 1965 278 269.4 0.141 0.137 103.2
Drew Stubbs 2540 345 339.4 0.136 0.134 101.7
Michael Bourn 2677 354 349.3 0.132 0.130 101.3
Austin Jackson 2915 372 367.6 0.128 0.126 101.2
Rick Ankiel 1449 223 221.9 0.154 0.153 100.5
Chris Coghlan 1273 145 145.7 0.114 0.114 99.5
Colby Rasmus 2124 290 295.8 0.137 0.139 98.0
B.J. Upton 2911 382 391.2 0.131 0.134 97.6
Jacoby Ellsbury 3101 377 386.9 0.122 0.125 97.4
Ezequiel Carrera 1091 112 115.3 0.103 0.106 97.2
Michael Brantley 1108 118 122.0 0.106 0.110 96.7
Peter Bourjos 3054 351 363.3 0.115 0.119 96.6
Grady Sizemore 1138 119 125.0 0.105 0.110 95.2
Curtis Granderson 2457 354 383.5 0.144 0.156 92.3
Adam Jones 2693 377 408.7 0.140 0.152 92.3
Matt Kemp 2680 320 346.9 0.119 0.129 92.2
Chris Young 2939 367 405.8 0.125 0.138 90.4
Rajai Davis 1390 174 194.7 0.125 0.140 89.4
Melky Cabrera 2759 316 371.9 0.115 0.135 85.0

The thing that surprises me the most is Peter Bourjos’s ranking. He’s supposed to be really fast, but it could be his judgement hasn’t developed yet. FanGraphs does rate him much higher, however.

The Giants are going to be in big trouble if it turns out that Melky Cabrera’s hitting was a one-year wonder. They’ll end up with a centerfielder who can neither hit nor field.

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