February 29, 2012

Objective PMR, Rightfielders

The series on objective probabilistic model of range (PMR) continues by looking at rightfielders. I’ll show teams as a whole at the position, plus individuals who were on the field for 1000 balls in play. First the teams:

Objective PMR, team rightfielders, 2011. Model built on data from 2005-2010, visiting teams only.
Team In Play Actual Outs Predicted Outs Actual DER Predicted DER Index
CLE 3675 356 298.5 0.097 0.081 119.2
CHN 3301 329 296.1 0.100 0.090 111.1
FLO 3130 321 289.3 0.103 0.092 110.9
OAK 2719 331 306.7 0.122 0.113 107.9
SDN 3411 315 293.1 0.092 0.086 107.5
TOR 3101 343 322.8 0.111 0.104 106.2
ARI 3522 322 303.1 0.091 0.086 106.2
MIN 3014 334 316.1 0.111 0.105 105.7
NYA 3035 332 319.4 0.109 0.105 104.0
SLN 3538 313 302.1 0.088 0.085 103.6
HOU 3433 307 297.6 0.089 0.087 103.2
BOS 3337 326 316.8 0.098 0.095 102.9
WAS 2956 329 320.6 0.111 0.108 102.6
CHA 3094 297 292.6 0.096 0.095 101.5
ATL 3449 308 303.6 0.089 0.088 101.4
KCA 3616 348 344.1 0.096 0.095 101.1
TEX 2773 327 329.0 0.118 0.119 99.4
MIL 3439 304 307.7 0.088 0.089 98.8
CIN 3639 306 313.2 0.084 0.086 97.7
DET 3089 304 314.8 0.098 0.102 96.6
ANA 3269 310 322.3 0.095 0.099 96.2
TBA 2890 312 324.2 0.108 0.112 96.2
COL 3521 276 288.3 0.078 0.082 95.7
LAN 3232 278 295.7 0.086 0.091 94.0
PIT 1774 144 155.4 0.081 0.088 92.7
PHI 3117 259 281.1 0.083 0.090 92.1
BAL 3662 312 339.9 0.085 0.093 91.8
SFN 1635 144 159.5 0.088 0.098 90.3
NYN 3354 280 323.1 0.083 0.096 86.7
SEA 3439 278 325.0 0.081 0.095 85.5

The Mets just keep coming up as a bad defensive team. At least that’s an area they likely can improve without a huge cost.

The individuals:

Objective PMR, individual rightfielders, 2011. Model built on data from 2005-2010, visiting teams only. 1000 balls in play, minimum.
Fielder In Play Actual Outs Predicted Outs Actual DER Predicted DER Index
Kosuke Fukudome 2564 263 221.9 0.103 0.087 118.5
Shin-Soo Choo 1895 172 153.6 0.091 0.081 112.0
Mike Stanton 2644 271 245.6 0.102 0.093 110.3
Chris Denorfia 1090 98 88.9 0.090 0.082 110.2
David DeJesus 1831 231 209.8 0.126 0.115 110.1
Jayson Werth 2411 277 259.4 0.115 0.108 106.8
Jason Heyward 2308 210 197.6 0.091 0.086 106.3
Justin Upton 3346 306 288.0 0.091 0.086 106.3
Nick Swisher 2516 273 259.8 0.109 0.103 105.1
Jose Bautista 2188 233 221.7 0.106 0.101 105.1
J.D. Drew 1387 142 136.0 0.102 0.098 104.4
Nelson Cruz 1667 216 207.0 0.130 0.124 104.4
Michael Cuddyer 1317 139 134.7 0.106 0.102 103.2
Will Venable 1512 133 129.7 0.088 0.086 102.5
Jeff Francoeur 3385 328 320.4 0.097 0.095 102.4
Carlos Quentin 1784 177 174.3 0.099 0.098 101.5
Corey Hart 2627 236 232.7 0.090 0.089 101.4
Ben Francisco 1007 86 86.0 0.085 0.085 100.0
Seth Smith 2037 166 167.5 0.081 0.082 99.1
Torii Hunter 2637 259 262.7 0.098 0.100 98.6
Jay Bruce 3399 285 290.3 0.084 0.085 98.2
Andre Ethier 2507 221 226.7 0.088 0.090 97.5
Hunter Pence 3083 259 271.8 0.084 0.088 95.3
Lance Berkman 2103 160 169.3 0.076 0.081 94.5
Matthew Joyce 2005 211 228.1 0.105 0.114 92.5
Nick Markakis 3544 301 328.9 0.085 0.093 91.5
Carlos Beltran 2039 169 193.4 0.083 0.095 87.4
Ichiro Suzuki 3225 263 306.8 0.082 0.095 85.7
Magglio Ordonez 1056 87 104.7 0.082 0.099 83.1

Asian players round out the extremes, with Shin-Soo Choo and Kosuke Fukudome at the top, and Ichiro at the bottom. This may be another example of Ichiro losing a step as he ages. The good number posted by Jayson Werth may mean he’s not so bad if and when the Nationals stick him in centerfield. Amazingly, Carlos Beltran comes in worse than Lance Berkman. Maybe the Cardinals are moving the wrong player to first base. 🙂

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