The series on objective probabilistic model of range (PMR) continues by looking at rightfielders. I’ll show teams as a whole at the position, plus individuals who were on the field for 1000 balls in play. First the teams:
Team | In Play | Actual Outs | Predicted Outs | Actual DER | Predicted DER | Index |
CLE | 3675 | 356 | 298.5 | 0.097 | 0.081 | 119.2 |
CHN | 3301 | 329 | 296.1 | 0.100 | 0.090 | 111.1 |
FLO | 3130 | 321 | 289.3 | 0.103 | 0.092 | 110.9 |
OAK | 2719 | 331 | 306.7 | 0.122 | 0.113 | 107.9 |
SDN | 3411 | 315 | 293.1 | 0.092 | 0.086 | 107.5 |
TOR | 3101 | 343 | 322.8 | 0.111 | 0.104 | 106.2 |
ARI | 3522 | 322 | 303.1 | 0.091 | 0.086 | 106.2 |
MIN | 3014 | 334 | 316.1 | 0.111 | 0.105 | 105.7 |
NYA | 3035 | 332 | 319.4 | 0.109 | 0.105 | 104.0 |
SLN | 3538 | 313 | 302.1 | 0.088 | 0.085 | 103.6 |
HOU | 3433 | 307 | 297.6 | 0.089 | 0.087 | 103.2 |
BOS | 3337 | 326 | 316.8 | 0.098 | 0.095 | 102.9 |
WAS | 2956 | 329 | 320.6 | 0.111 | 0.108 | 102.6 |
CHA | 3094 | 297 | 292.6 | 0.096 | 0.095 | 101.5 |
ATL | 3449 | 308 | 303.6 | 0.089 | 0.088 | 101.4 |
KCA | 3616 | 348 | 344.1 | 0.096 | 0.095 | 101.1 |
TEX | 2773 | 327 | 329.0 | 0.118 | 0.119 | 99.4 |
MIL | 3439 | 304 | 307.7 | 0.088 | 0.089 | 98.8 |
CIN | 3639 | 306 | 313.2 | 0.084 | 0.086 | 97.7 |
DET | 3089 | 304 | 314.8 | 0.098 | 0.102 | 96.6 |
ANA | 3269 | 310 | 322.3 | 0.095 | 0.099 | 96.2 |
TBA | 2890 | 312 | 324.2 | 0.108 | 0.112 | 96.2 |
COL | 3521 | 276 | 288.3 | 0.078 | 0.082 | 95.7 |
LAN | 3232 | 278 | 295.7 | 0.086 | 0.091 | 94.0 |
PIT | 1774 | 144 | 155.4 | 0.081 | 0.088 | 92.7 |
PHI | 3117 | 259 | 281.1 | 0.083 | 0.090 | 92.1 |
BAL | 3662 | 312 | 339.9 | 0.085 | 0.093 | 91.8 |
SFN | 1635 | 144 | 159.5 | 0.088 | 0.098 | 90.3 |
NYN | 3354 | 280 | 323.1 | 0.083 | 0.096 | 86.7 |
SEA | 3439 | 278 | 325.0 | 0.081 | 0.095 | 85.5 |
The Mets just keep coming up as a bad defensive team. At least that’s an area they likely can improve without a huge cost.
The individuals:
Fielder | In Play | Actual Outs | Predicted Outs | Actual DER | Predicted DER | Index |
Kosuke Fukudome | 2564 | 263 | 221.9 | 0.103 | 0.087 | 118.5 |
Shin-Soo Choo | 1895 | 172 | 153.6 | 0.091 | 0.081 | 112.0 |
Mike Stanton | 2644 | 271 | 245.6 | 0.102 | 0.093 | 110.3 |
Chris Denorfia | 1090 | 98 | 88.9 | 0.090 | 0.082 | 110.2 |
David DeJesus | 1831 | 231 | 209.8 | 0.126 | 0.115 | 110.1 |
Jayson Werth | 2411 | 277 | 259.4 | 0.115 | 0.108 | 106.8 |
Jason Heyward | 2308 | 210 | 197.6 | 0.091 | 0.086 | 106.3 |
Justin Upton | 3346 | 306 | 288.0 | 0.091 | 0.086 | 106.3 |
Nick Swisher | 2516 | 273 | 259.8 | 0.109 | 0.103 | 105.1 |
Jose Bautista | 2188 | 233 | 221.7 | 0.106 | 0.101 | 105.1 |
J.D. Drew | 1387 | 142 | 136.0 | 0.102 | 0.098 | 104.4 |
Nelson Cruz | 1667 | 216 | 207.0 | 0.130 | 0.124 | 104.4 |
Michael Cuddyer | 1317 | 139 | 134.7 | 0.106 | 0.102 | 103.2 |
Will Venable | 1512 | 133 | 129.7 | 0.088 | 0.086 | 102.5 |
Jeff Francoeur | 3385 | 328 | 320.4 | 0.097 | 0.095 | 102.4 |
Carlos Quentin | 1784 | 177 | 174.3 | 0.099 | 0.098 | 101.5 |
Corey Hart | 2627 | 236 | 232.7 | 0.090 | 0.089 | 101.4 |
Ben Francisco | 1007 | 86 | 86.0 | 0.085 | 0.085 | 100.0 |
Seth Smith | 2037 | 166 | 167.5 | 0.081 | 0.082 | 99.1 |
Torii Hunter | 2637 | 259 | 262.7 | 0.098 | 0.100 | 98.6 |
Jay Bruce | 3399 | 285 | 290.3 | 0.084 | 0.085 | 98.2 |
Andre Ethier | 2507 | 221 | 226.7 | 0.088 | 0.090 | 97.5 |
Hunter Pence | 3083 | 259 | 271.8 | 0.084 | 0.088 | 95.3 |
Lance Berkman | 2103 | 160 | 169.3 | 0.076 | 0.081 | 94.5 |
Matthew Joyce | 2005 | 211 | 228.1 | 0.105 | 0.114 | 92.5 |
Nick Markakis | 3544 | 301 | 328.9 | 0.085 | 0.093 | 91.5 |
Carlos Beltran | 2039 | 169 | 193.4 | 0.083 | 0.095 | 87.4 |
Ichiro Suzuki | 3225 | 263 | 306.8 | 0.082 | 0.095 | 85.7 |
Magglio Ordonez | 1056 | 87 | 104.7 | 0.082 | 0.099 | 83.1 |
Asian players round out the extremes, with Shin-Soo Choo and Kosuke Fukudome at the top, and Ichiro at the bottom. This may be another example of Ichiro losing a step as he ages. The good number posted by Jayson Werth may mean he’s not so bad if and when the Nationals stick him in centerfield. Amazingly, Carlos Beltran comes in worse than Lance Berkman. Maybe the Cardinals are moving the wrong player to first base. 🙂