7 thoughts on “Objective PMR, Leftfielders”

1. pft February 29, 2012 at 6:59 pm

   If arm was included Crawford is a lot lower. I don’t think I have seen such a poor throwing LF’er for the Red Sox in over 45 years (with Williams and yaz going back another 20 years before 67 that I did not see).

   Only 1 assist (on a cut off). Oh my.

   Hoping it was his wrist to blame.

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2. James February 29, 2012 at 7:17 pm

   I’m not surprised that Brett Gardner rates high, but I’m surprised he rates *that* high. He has a higher index than anyone but Jack Hannahan, and saved more outs than any other player.
   What is the expected win value of getting an extra 57 outs over 150 games, David? I mean, how many runs does an outfielder save by getting an extra 57 outs, on average?

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3. rbj February 29, 2012 at 7:45 pm

   Gritner!

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4. David Pinto Post authorFebruary 29, 2012 at 8:04 pm

   James » I believe the book has a fly out worth 0.28 runs (in the fielder’s favor). So assuming all fly outs, 16 runs. FanGraphs puts his fielding runs at 25.8, so I would think those range numbers are reasonable.

   Remember, we’re talking about him playing in a big field at Yankees stadium. When you build the parameters off everyone else, Gardner is going to look really good.

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5. James February 29, 2012 at 8:38 pm

   David, I don’t think that’s the right way to do it. The .28 Book value of an out means this: on average, the expected runs for the situation goes down by .28 when the batter makes an out. It’s the difference between the situation before the AB and the situation after the fly out.

   But if Gardner gets 57 extra outs, we need a different statistic. We aren’t looking for the exp run difference between pre-AB and post-out. We’re looking for the exp run difference between the fielder catching that batted ball and the fielder missing that batted ball.

   I don’t know what that value is, but it’s sure to be MUCH bigger than the .28 in The Book. (I bet it’s greater than a run per extra out when we’re talking about OF outs.)

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6. James February 29, 2012 at 8:53 pm

   Okay, here’s a rough estimate. Suppose 36 of those outs would have been singles and 21 would have been doubles. (It’s just a wild guess, I have no idea.) So 36 of the catches add an out *and* prevent a single, while 21 of them add an out *and* prevent a double. A double is worth .77 and a single .47, so 36*.75 + 21*1.05 = about 46 runs. (Which is a lot more than FanGraphs estimates.)

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7. David Pinto Post authorFebruary 29, 2012 at 11:26 pm

   James » I’ll have to think about this. The run estimates is the linear runs coefficients. So you should be able to figure out his runs on each out or hit, and get his total, where 0 would be average. Of course, you need to share the hits with other fielders, since more than one fielder can be responsible for a hit, but give all the credit for the out to the fielder who makes the play.

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