March 15, 2012

The BABIP Goes On

Via Hardball Talk, Jeremy Hellickson discusses his good BABIP in 2011 (emphasis added):

Amid the statistical autopsies of Hellickson’s impressive accomplishments last season — a 13-10 record and 2.95 ERA that resulted in the AL rookie of the year award — a story line has emerged that the right-hander’s success wasn’t all his own doing.

The premise is based on a sabermetric calculation, called BABIP, which stands for batting average on balls in play, something essentially out of the pitcher’s control. The theory is that since Hellickson had such a low number — a major-league best .223, nearly 70 points below the league norm — he was more lucky than good.

“I hear it; it’s funny,” Hellickson said, not quite sure of the acronym. “I thought that’s what we’re supposed to do, let them put it in play and get outs. So I don’t really understand that. When you have a great defense, why not let them do their job? I’m not really a strikeout pitcher; I just get weak contact and let our defense play.”

I like that bold quote. Hellickson recognizes his team’s strengths and his weaknesses and notes that allowing the ball in play works for him. On a poor defensive team, Jeremy’s implicitly realizes that with a bad defense behind him, the ball in play style wouldn’t work as well.

Also, when looking at luck, it should be noted that the Rays pitchers recorded the lowest BABIP in the majors in 2011, .265. He doesn’t play in front of a league average defense, he plays in front of one of the best defenses. So he’s more like 40 points below average than 70 points below average.

There was indeed, some luck to Hellickson’s season. Kudos to the Rays, however, for realizing that this combination of pitcher and defense would work well. Defense turned this franchise into a great one in 2008, and that defense has kept them competitive ever since.

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