The 2012 division previews continue with the NL Central. I’ll use 2011 Wins Above Replacement (WAR) from FanGraphs for the evaluation. I concentrate on the projected starting position players, the five man rotation, and the closer, using the CBSSports.com depth charts.

Milwaukee Brewers

• Position Player WAR: 25.7
• Starting Pitcher WAR: 12.6
• Closer WAR: 1.9
• Total WAR: 40.2

Despite losing Prince Fielder to free agency, the Brewers start the season with an excellent core WAR, very close to the level that would put them in the playoffs. Bringing in Aramis Ramirez helped make up for some of the wins they lost with Fielder. Mat Gamel takes over at first base, and he should have a great deal of upside compared to the -0.4 he posted in the majors in 2011. Even with that negative number thrown in, the Brewers edge out the Cardinals for best core offense in the division.

While Gamel brings them some upside, there is downside as well. Ryan Braun likely regresses after an MVP season, even if he didn’t take PEDs. Aramis Ramirez and Corey Hart posted good seasons in 2011, but they are getting old (Hart turns 30 this season). Still, it should be a solid offense and among the best in the division.

On the pitching side, the 1-2-3 starters in the rotation, Yovani Gallardo, Zack Greinke, and Shaun Marcum all have posted at least one season better than their 2011. Each is capable of adding one WAR over last season, and that would keep them ahead of the Cardinals. They own a solid closer in John Axford and a capable backup in Francisco Rodriguez.

The Brewers are extremely solid on both sides of the ball and should be the favorites to win the division again in 2012.

St. Louis Cardinals

• Position Player WAR: 25.5
• Starting Pitcher WAR: 7.8
• Closer WAR: 1.5
• Total WAR: 34.8

The starting pitcher WAR is low due to two factors.

• Adam Wainwright did not pitch last year, so he gets a zero.
• Chris Carpenter is not expected back until May, so CBS does not list him on the top five in the rotation.

That gives the Cardinals pitchers a huge penalty. Carpenter is probably four WAR better than Lance Lynn, and Wainwright is capable of posting a five WAR. Adam, however, is coming off a serious injury, so we don’t know how well he will perform in 2012. The Cardinals don’t seem to have a good handle on Carpenter’s injury, and we’ve seen him miss full seasons before with a similar ailment. The starting pitching WAR may be too low by nine, but it also could be very close to reality. I’d rather stay conservative and be surprised.

The offense strikes me as having more downside that upside. Yadier Molina, Lance Berkman, Matt Holliday, and Carlos Beltran all posted WARs near five in 2011. Berkman, Holliday, and Beltran are all of an age where a decline is more likely than an advance. Molina showed more power than he ever did before, so a regression toward his career sub-.400 slugging percentage is likely. It’s possible these four average could on average suffer a one-war fall off. The most likely place for upside comes from David Freese staying on the field for a full season, something he has not accomplished at the major league level.

Considering everything that might go right and go wrong, the 34.8 core WAR seems right to me. That should at least get them in the wild card conversation again.

Cincinnati Reds

• Position Player WAR: 23.1
• Starting Pitcher WAR: 7.7
• Closer WAR: 2.8
• Total WAR: 33.6

The Reds offense comes very close to the Brewers and Cardinals. Joey Votto competes with Ryan Braun for the best offensive player in the division. Brandon Phillips and Jay Bruce give them two more very solid players, and Zack Cozart gives them some upside at shortstop.

The problem with the Reds returning to the playoffs is their starting pitching. A couple of years ago it looked like Cincinnati would have a deep, strong rotation for a long time. It hasn’t worked out that way. The Reds traded for Mat Latos to shore up the rotation, and are thinking of converting Aroldis Chapman to a starter. Once boost should come from a healthy Bronson Arroyo, who perform 1.5 wins below replacement in 2011. A return to a positive 1.5 of the previous two years adds three wins to the rotation. An outstanding season from Johnny Cueto would help as well.

As far as Chapman goes, the Reds need to decide if he’ll really perform better than the 1.5 WAR posted by both Mike Leake and Homer Bailey. It’s doubtful Chapman’s high K rate will hold up as a starter, but his high walk rate might.

With Sean Marshall, the Reds do boast the best closer in the division. The Reds have a good chance at the division, and at least at a wild card.

Pittsburgh Pirates

• Position Player WAR: 15.7
• Starting Pitcher WAR: 6.0
• Closer WAR: 2.0
• Total WAR: 23.7

A 23.7 core WAR puts the Pirates about ten wins away from .500 for the first time since Barry Bonds played for the team. The reserves should be able to make that up if the Pirates core can live up to these numbers. Andrew McCutchen made a bid last year to be the team’s next Bonds, but he’ll need help. There is upside there. Pedro Alvarez and Garrett Jones have room to improve, and Alex Presley posted a 1.2 WAR in only 1/3 of a season. Those three might be able to add four wins to the core total this season.

The rotation, however, remains weak. The could get a nice boost if Erik Bedard stays healthy, but that’s a tall order. They picked up A.J. Burnett, but an eye injury sidelined him for a while. Given his ERA the last two season, that’s a good thing. James McDonald needs to repeat his K/BB/HR rates from 2010. He did not hold up over his first full season in the majors in 2011. Maybe he’ll show more stamina and control in 2012.

The Pirates do not come into the season as a great team. They do, however, carry a ton of upside. I don’t believe there is enough there to get them into the playoffs, but there’s more than enough to get them to a plus .500 record and a third place finish.

Chicago Cubs

• Position Player WAR: 13.2
• Starting Pitcher WAR: 11.8
• Closer WAR: 0.8
• Total WAR: 25.8

The Cubs make an interesting pair with the Pirates. Chicago comes in with a higher core WAR than Pittsburgh, but the upside potential just isn’t there. Bryan LaHair may prove to be a strong offensive first baseman. Maybe Anthony Rizzo hits his way out of the minors. Maybe Ian Stewart finally lives up to his potential, or Jeff Samardzija turns into a stud starter. Apart from first base, there’s just not that much room for improvement from this group.

I also get the feeling that anyone over 28 years old who plays well becomes trade bait for prospects. Unless this team surprises everyone and ends up leading the division at the All-Star break, the front office’s goal is to start laying a foundation for a long and successful future. They’ll be happy with a finish close to .500 if they can use that to gain pieces that work over the next five years.

Houston Astros

• Position Player WAR: 7.6
• Starting Pitcher WAR: 3.6
• Closer WAR: 1.5
• Total WAR: 12.7

The Astros hold a number of untested players who might turn out to be very good. Jordan Lyles is just 21 with tremendous upside. Maybe in his first full season in the majors posts a three WAR. Jason Castro, J.D. Martinez, Jordan Schafer, and Brian Bogusevic play their first full seasons for the team. All could be good, and I would not be surprised if they combined to increase the core WAR by eight wins. That still leaves the team a long way to go to get in contention, but at least they would build toward a successful first year in the American League. It will be interesting to see how the new ownership and front office work on making the squad better during 2012.

Predictions:

This is an interesting division with two fairly equally matched sets of teams. The Brewers, the Cardinals, and the Reds all have a shot at the division and a wild card. The Pirates and Astros are improving teams, and both should be on the level of the Cubs, who appear to be standing pat this season.

Here’s how I see the odds of the teams winning the division:

1. Milwaukee Brewers 30%
2. St. Louis Cardinals 24%
3. Cincinnati Reds 23%
4. Pittsburgh Pirates 11%
5. Chicago Cubs 10%
6. Houston Astros 2%

I also hope to see some surprises here.