April 2, 2012

Brian Cashman’s Crack

Kevin Kernan discusses the giants on the mound for the Yankees:

That tale of the tape is a pretty good basketball team or offensive line that general manager Brian Cashman has assembled. Now we just have to see if they can pitch effectively as a group in the AL East. One thing is certain, to be noticed as a pitcher in Cash’s World, it helps to be of a certain size and stature.

“I’m a crack addict for size and power,” Cashman told The Post.

Cashman believes there is science behind his big-man beliefs.

“The profiles for me do translate, even though there are clearly a lot of exceptions out there,” the GM explained. “Pitchers can come in different packages like Mariano Rivera and Roy Oswalt and Billy Wagner, but if you have a big power arm, come to me and I will jump all over it.”

The following table shows the three true outcomes for pitchers by height, since the start of the offensive explosion in 1993.

Three true outcomes by height, 1993-2012 (2 games). Height in inches.
Height IP Strikeouts per 9 IP Walks per 9 IP Home Runs per 200 IP
66 101.7 6.29 3.19 17.70
67 172.7 7.35 6.15 20.85
68 354.3 6.81 3.91 24.84
69 1660.3 6.75 4.72 23.01
70 12508.3 6.94 3.62 20.37
71 33471.3 7.29 3.61 22.60
72 89019.7 6.51 3.38 23.68
73 110626.7 6.31 3.33 23.99
74 158252.3 6.54 3.39 24.22
75 138438.7 6.48 3.50 23.60
76 115124.0 6.68 3.38 23.37
77 66968.0 6.80 3.35 22.82
78 37274.3 6.63 3.34 21.39
79 14755.7 6.71 3.11 21.81
80 6031.7 6.55 3.69 23.51
81 2601.3 6.05 3.63 23.22
82 4422.3 10.08 2.88 21.30
83 520.7 7.23 2.77 23.82

As you can see, the majority of pitchers in the majors range between 5′ 10″ and 6′ 7″. Using that interval, the following graphs show the relation of height to success for each of the three categories.

Strikeouts by Height

Strikeouts by Height

It appears short pitchers need to strike out a ton of batters to survive in the majors.

Walks by Height

Walks by Height

It seems walks do go down the taller the pitcher.

Home runs by height

Home runs by height

Once again, short pitchers need to be great at keeping the ball in the park to survive in the majors. This sure looks like selection bias based on height. If you are in the range of 6′ 2″ or 6′ 3″, you can pitch poorly and still get a lot of innings. Baseball won’t look at a player shorter unless they shine in strikeouts and home runs (which covers the walk weakness).

Seventy six inches (6′ 4″) seems to be the key. At that height and above, pitchers have an advantage. Below that, what a player can do is more important than how tall he stands.

Update: Here is an economic paper on the height bias.

3 thoughts on “Brian Cashman’s Crack

  1. Alex Hayes

    Is any of this due to the ideas discussed in Moneyball, i.e. pitchers/players discarded by Scouts due to body type?

    ReplyReply

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