April 3, 2012

AL Central Preview

The 2012 division previews continue with the AL Central. I’ll use 2011 Wins Above Replacement (WAR) from FanGraphs for the evaluation. I concentrate on the projected starting position players, the five man rotation, and the closer, using the CBSSports.com depth charts.

Miguel Cabrera moves to third in 2012, giving the Tigers a weak infield defense.  Photo: © Brad Barr-US PRESSWIRE

Miguel Cabrera moves to third in 2012, giving the Tigers a weak infield defense. Photo: © Brad Barr-US PRESSWIRE

Detroit Tigers

  • Position Player WAR: 29.4
  • Starting Pitcher WAR: 17.7
  • Closer WAR: 1.0
  • Total WAR: 48.1

The Tigers boast the strongest cores on both offense and pitching in the AL Central. Their 48.1 core WAR beats Cleveland by a little over 15 wins. They are a well deserved consensus pick to win the division.

Finding either upside or downside is difficult with this team. Andy Dirks comes in with a 0.4 WAR from his short time in the majors, but he did a great job getting on base in the minors. Jhonny Peralta’s 5.2 WAR was a throwback to his younger days, and I don’t expect him to meet that level again. There’s alway a chance that players like Justin Verlander and Miguel Cabrera regress a bit after monster years, but the two are so good, I suspect the fall-off will be small. The 2011 core WAR seems like a very good estimate for this group of players.

The thing that interests me most about the Tigers going into 2012 is the infield defense. The addition of Prince Fielder moved Miguel Cabrera back to third. In his years with the Marlins, Cabrera was a little below average. A team can cover that weakness with a good shortstop. That does not describe Peralta. If ground balls start sneaking through the infield frequently, I suspect the pitching staff will start complaining. Either that, or Verlander will end up striking out 27 in game. 🙂

With Verlander, Doug Fister, and Max Scherzer in the rotation, the fielders won’t get that many balls in play to handle. Each owns a high K rate, and that should go a long way to covering the infield weakness.

Shin-Soo Choo

The Indians need a big year from Shin-Soo Choo to compete for the playoffs. Photo: © Rick Scuteri-US PRESSWIRE

Cleveland Indians

  • Position Player WAR: 18.1
  • Starting Pitcher WAR: 13.1
  • Closer WAR: 1.5
  • Total WAR: 32.7

Ubaldo Jimenez did not receive much praise for his 2011 season, but still managed to post a solid 3.5 WAR. With Justin Masterson’s 4.9 WAR, the two should provide a solid 1-2 punch in the Cleveland rotation. It’s a solid staff, and a six WAR by Jimenez would bring the group very close to Detroit. Ubaldo is off on the wrong foot, however, facing a five-game suspension.

There’s little downside among the Indians position players, as no one really produced an outstanding 2011. Shin-Soo Choo can add some wins if he stays healthy, and Jason Kipnis brings a strong minor league OBP to his first year in the majors. A four WAR from both this season brings Cleveland a little closer to playoff contention.

I don’t see this core topping 40 wins this season. That would bring them close to wild card contention, but there are so many strong teams in the AL East and West that a high 80s win total probably won’t cut it. I’d peg the Indians for around 85 wins, with a high of about 89.

Adam Dunn

A leaner Adam Dunn hopes to lead an improvement in the White Sox offense. Photo: © Mark J. Rebilas-US PRESSWIRE

Chicago White Sox

  • Position Player WAR: 10.4
  • Starting Pitcher WAR: 14.6
  • Closer WAR: 1.6
  • Total WAR: 26.6

I like the White Sox rotation. They are solid 1-5, assuming that Chris Sale makes the transition to starter seamlessly. John Danks, Gavin Floyd, Phil Humber, and Jake Peavy are all capable of 3+ WAR seasons. Peavy’s 2.9 WAR was the low of that group in 2011.

Winning, in that case, comes down to run support. Turn Adam Dunn from a -3 to a +3 WAR, and the team is suddenly even with Cleveland. Dunn tore up spring training with a .255/.415/.569 slash line, including five home runs. He changed his off-season work habits, and the White Sox need that work to pay off it they are going to compete in the division. Brent Morel and Gordon Beckham figuring out how to get on base like they did in the minors might push Chicago into contention with Detroit.

(I don’t know how Ozzie Guillen felt about players posting high OBPs. With a career .264 BA and a .287 OPB, Guillen was a hacker. He strikes me as someone who would want his hitters aggressive. That would play against the talents of Morel and Beckham. Robin Ventura was a much more selective hitter in his playing days. Ventura might be the perfect person to get these two young players back on their games.)

This team hinges on the offense. If Ventura can coax a better OBP out of them, they have the pitching to win.

Lorenzo Cain

Prospect Lorenzo Cain moves into the top of the Royals order in 2012. Photo: © Christopher Hanewinckel-US PRESSWIRE

Kansas City Royals

  • Position Player WAR: 17.7
  • Starting Pitcher WAR: 5.5
  • Closer WAR: -0.3
  • Total WAR: 22.9

The Royals total likely underestimates how this group will perform. Eric Hosmer played 128 games as a 21 year old. He should up his 1.6 WAR. Mike Moustakas only played 1/2 a season at age 22. Lornezo received just a cup of coffee. Danny Duffy started 20 games at age 22. Progress by those four could add as much as eight WAR to the core total.

Keep your eye on Jonathan Sanchez as well. Maybe the trade was what he needed to wake up to his control issues. He walked five in 8 1/3 spring training innings, however. A good year from him would also boost the Royals over .500.

I don’t think this is the season they contend, but they could make the leap into the 80s in wins, and put the playoffs in their sights for 2013.

Joe Mauer

Joe Mauer tries to return to his All-Star form after an injury riddled season. Photo: © Derick E. Hingle-US PRESSWIRE

Minnesota Twins

  • Position Player WAR: 13.3
  • Starting Pitcher WAR: 8.7
  • Closer WAR: -0.4
  • Total WAR: 21.6

How well the Twins perform in 2012 comes down to a matter of health. We already know that Justin Morneau can’t take the stress of playing nine innings in the field, so he will DH. There may be days he just can’t play. I doubt he’ll return to his pre-injury levels.

Joe Mauer is a different story. He should be healed, making a six WAR season possible. Joe hit like his old self in spring training, as did Denard Span. That gives some hope that the Twins will score more runs in 2012.

On the pitching side, Scott Baker, Nick Blakburn, and Francisco Liriano all missed six or seven starts in 2012. The latter two pitched outstanding spring ball, while Baker struggled.

Injuries, however, tend to lead to more injuries. There’s plenty of upside for these players, but I’m not as optimistic as most that it will be realized. The Twins could finish anywhere from second to fifth, but I’ll take the lower half of that expecation.

Predictions:

Barring major injuries, Detroit should win the division easily. None of the other teams appear to have the personnel to compete with the strong teams in the AL East and AL West for the wild cards.

Here’s how I see the odds of the teams winning the division:

  1. Detroit Tigers 70%
  2. Cleveland Indians 10%
  3. Chicago White Sox 7%
  4. Minnesota Twins 7%
  5. Kansas City Royals 6%

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