May 28, 2012

Memorial Day Pole

With Memorial Day here, MLB is closing in on being one-third of the way through the season. This season provided a lot of fun and surprises so far.

The best offense belongs to either the Cardinals or the Rangers. While the Cardinals scored 1/2 run less than the Rangers, they use pitchers as batters and they play in an historically tougher stadium for hitters (the park is playing like a hitters park this season, however). The Rangers good offense, in my mind, is more likely to continue. A number of St. Louis hitters seem to be over their heads in terms of power. Texas, meanwhile, no one for Texas except for maybe Josh Hamilton, appears to be playing way over their head. Forced to choose, Texas gets the nod for best offense.

The best pitching staff belongs to the Washington Nationals. The team ERA is under 3.00 at 2.95, and for all runs they are 0.2 runs better than their closest competition, the Dodgers. The Nationals are extremely good at the three true outcomes, ranking near or at the top in terms of team strikeout rate, walk rate and home run rate.

The Dodgers lead in defense this season, according to UZR. The Dodgers don’t have many heavy hitters on the team, and what a player doesn’t provide with the bat should be made up for with the glove. I find it interesting to note that Dee Gordon has done neither. Having a great defense with a below average shortstop is quite a feat.

The biggest positive surprise teams are the Orioles and Indians. With Cleveland a little bit ahead. These were two teams than needed everything to go right for them to compete. The Orioles seem to fit that bill, but the Indians don’t. Grady Sizemore wound injured again. Ubaldo Jimenez hasn’t pitched well. It took a while for Shin-Soo Choo to get going. The Indians have enjoyed some good luck. They are four games over their Pythagorean projection, thanks to a 10-2 record in one-run games. The Orioles, too, did better than expected, three games over their projection. The projected standings for the AL East are very cool, as four teams currently project to 26 wins, and the Red Sox project to 25.

The Astros get a special mention for greatly improving their offense over 2011.

I’m not sure there is a real negative surprise. The Angels got off to a bad start and worked their way into second place this week. The Red Sox and Phillies are in last place, but not that far out and at least playing .500 balls. Minnesota fits the bill best. They returned Denard Span, Joe Mauer, and Justin Morneau to the lineup. The three are hitting well, and I thought that would be enough. The pitching seems lost, however, and Minnesota is tied for the worst record in the majors.

The biggest surprise player to me is Melky Cabrera. I really thought this was a another bad Brian Sabean move, buying a player high. It turns out it’s been one of his better moves, giving up Jonathan Sanchez for someone who might end up with 200 hits. I thought for sure Melky would regress back to his pre-Royals ways, but despite playing in a tough park for hitters and in a division with plenty of good pitching, Cabrera has thrived. Even if Melky regresses to his career .281 BA for the rest of the season, he’d still hit .307.

The Giants also have the biggest negative surprise player in Tim Lincecum. Tim appears not to be injured and he still strikes out batters at a good rate. He lost his control, however, and when he comes into the strike zone he gets hit. Between his increased walks allowed and hits allowed, nearly four more batters are reaching base against him per nine innings. The highest single season OBP he allowed before this year was .310. This season, it’s .358.

2 thoughts on “Memorial Day Pole

  1. M. Scott Eiland

    Dee Gordon is definitely still raw, but he’d be fine if they’d teach him to bunt better and keep him low in the order (7th or 8th)–his fielding will improve with experience and he covers a huge amount of ground (too much at times–one of those big outfielders is going to turn him into a grease spot on the outfield grass unless he stops charging back after flies well into their range). I’d say the real question for the Dodgers is: is A.J. Ellis for real? If he is, they ought to lead him off or bat him second every time he’s in the lineup and watch the runs pour in.

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  2. Clint

    I thought Melky was a bad Sabean move as well; but the closer I look at it, it’s such a Hallmark Sabean move that over the years has done nothing but work out. Think about some of those teams they put around Bonds through the years. Patchwork guys all over (Stan Javier to JT Snow to Darryl “Ham Bone” Hamilton, etc.) and it worked out. Sabean just has nice little finds like Melky all the time.

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