From the Dodgers point of view, to win in 2012, the trade with the Red Sox comes down to replacing Joe Blanton and James Loney with Josh Beckett and Adrian Gonzalez. Based on what the four players did this season, the Dodgers get rid of 1.6 WAR and replace that with 4.3 WAR. That’s a difference of 2.7 WAR. With 22% of the season remaining, that’s about 0.6 wins over doing nothing. I’m using fWAR, by the way, which accounts for Beckett’s ERA being worse than his FIP.

The upside is that both Beckett and Gonzalez underperformed for the season as a whole. If you attribute that decline to the Boston clubhouse, as opposed to the ability of the players, then maybe that WAR difference goes up to 2.0. Given the closeness of both the division and wild card races, two wins could make a huge difference in the race.

Update: Beckett may be replacing Chad Billingsley, whose elbow flared up Friday night. That doesn’t work out as well.