October 1, 2012

Triple Crown Watch

Joe Mauer put pressure on Miguel Cabrera in the race for the batting title, Joe going 3 for 4 on Sunday while Miguel went 0 for 3. Miguel now leads Joe in the batting race .325 to .323. With Mauer’s high career batting average, Miguel’s batting crown is no longer a sure thing.

His RBI appears to be, however. Josh Hamilton drove in two runs on Sunday, but that wasn’t enough to really close the large gap between the two. My 10,000 simulations of the RBI race show that Hamilton can tie Miguel, but he never out right won. The two remain tied atop the home run leader board.

Cabrera has the following probabilities of at least tying in the three triple crown categories:

  • Batting Average (vs. Mauer): .640
  • Home Runs: .723
  • RBI: 1.0

If you multiply the three probabilities together, Cabrera has a .46 probability of winning the triple crown or 46%, down from 57% yesterday. A day ago it looked like Cabrera had the batting race locked up, but Mauer is putting on a huge push, as he’s batting .388 in September.

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