The Reds and Giants play the first game of the NLDS Saturday night. These teams performed in 2012 the opposite of what I expected. Here’s how the offenses ranked in the NL:
| Offensive Statistic (NL Rank) | Giants | Reds |
|---|---|---|
| Runs per Game | 4.43 (6th) | 4.13 (9th) |
| Batting Average | .269 (3rd) | .251 (9th) |
| On-Base Percentage | .327 (4th) | .315 (12th) |
| Slugging Percentage | .397 (8th) | .411 (6th) |
| OPS+ | 107 (1st-T) | 90 (11th-T) |
Buster Posey helped give the Giants one of the best offenses in the National League. Photo: Kelley L Cox-US PRESSWIRE
Over the last few years, the Giants were better known for their pitching, and I tend to think of the Reds as an offensive team. The Giants play in a fairly extreme ballpark in terms of preventing runs. When you take that into account, their good offensive numbers turn into great offensive numbers. The Reds, who play in a good park for home runs, see their offensive numbers knocked down a bit.
One thing these teams have in common is that they sustained a huge offensive loss very well. The Reds lost Joey Votto for a long stretch. Joey was on a pace to come close to the single season doubles record. The team went 63-48 when Votto played, a .568 winning percentage. They went 34-17 without him, a .667 winning percentage. The Giants lost Melky Cabrera to a drug suspension, and won’t bring him back for the playoffs. San Francisco went 62-51 when Melky played, .549, 32-17 without him, .653. Those two deletions should have cost these teams, but instead the players rallied and made up the difference.
While the Giants were surprisingly good on offense, the Reds were as surprisingly good on the mound.
| Pitching/Defense Statistic (NL Rank) | Giants | Reds |
|---|---|---|
| ERA | 3.68 (5th) | 3.34 (1st) |
| K per 9 IP | 7.7 (6th-T) | 7.7 (6th-T) |
| BB per 9 IP | 3.0 (6th-T) | 2.6 (2nd-T) |
| HR per 9 IP | 0.9 (5th-T) | 0.9 (5th-T) |
| Runs Allowed per Game | 4.01 (6th) | 3.63 (1st) |
| UZR per 150 BIP | 0.9 (6th) | 1.7 (4th) |
| ERA+ | 95 (11th) | 127 (1st) |
Cy Young candidate Johnny Cueto leads an excellent Reds pitching staff against the Giants. Photo: Charles LeClaire-US PRESSWIRE
Adjusting for parks (ERA+), the Reds posted the best pitching numbers in the National League. They showed great control, but their biggest advantage came in home runs. Unlike the Giants, Cincinnati’s hurlers cannot depend on the park to keep balls from flying out. That makes their 0.9 HR per game average so remarkable. The Reds defense also helps out their pitchers a bit more than the Giants defense.
So this comes down to good pitching trying to stop good hitting. We’ll see if the old adage holds. They seem very evenly matched to me. Given that the Reds played better overall, and that the deeper pitching staff gives them a slight edge, I give Cincinnati a 52% chance of taking the series.