The Yankees host the Tigers in the 2012 ALCS starting Saturday evening (tonight). The Yankees are the only favorite to win an LDS series this season. The following table shows how their offenses ranked in the American League.

The ageless Derek Jeter led the Yankees offense in the ALDS. Photo: The Star-Ledger-US PRESSWIRE

It strikes me that both these teams underperformed in terms of runs compared to their averages. The Yankees were the best at getting on base and hitting for power, yet finished second in runs per game. The Tigers were second to the Yankees in terms of getting on base, and ranked high in slugging percentage as well. They finished sixth in runs per game despite having two incredible sluggers in the middle of the lineup. The Yankees composite lineup strikes me as a bit more balanced, although they are weaker at the bottom than I’m used to among New York teams. The Tigers don’t have much to offer from the 5th slot down.

Both these teams have potential to be high scoring offense. They just don’t always realize that potential.

While the Yankees own the advantage on the offensive side, the Tigers pitch a little bit better.

Justin Verlander set and LDS record for strikeouts in his two starts against Oakland. Photo: Kelley L Cox-US PRESSWIRE

They are about as even as they can be in terms of walks and strikeouts, but Detroit does a better job of keeping the ball in the park. The Tigers staff allowed 39 fewer home runs than the Yankees staff. Against an offense like the Yankees that lived on the long ball, that’s a great strength.

One thing that works in the Yankees favor, however, is the way the playoffs are set up, with few days off, means the Tigers send Max Scherzer in game four. That means he either pitches once in the series, or comes back on short rest in game seven. That’s unlikely, since Justin Verlander would be on proper rest to pitch the seventh game. So a high K pitcher, the kind that helps the Tigers defense, only gets one shot in the ALCS.

Luckily for the Yankees, they don’t run into that problem with CC Sabathia. As he proved with the Brewers a few seasons ago, Milliliter is more than happy to take the ball on short rest. Given the way he pitched lately, I surprised he doesn’t start every game of the series. 🙂 Since the Yankees don’t need to face Verlander until game three, they have a better shot at preserving home field advantage this weekend.

Given the poor defense on both sides, look for a lot of innings getting extended as balls go just past a diving infielder.

In the regular season, these teams hit each other very well. The Tigers took four of seven, so they are more than capable of winning his series. Maybe seeing Scherzer only once and home field puts the Yankees ahead, but it’s not much more than a toss up. I give New York a 52% chance of going to another World Series.

Update: Hughes will start game three and Sabathia game four, then CC would go in game seven if needed. I think the Yankees really need to win the first two now, so the game against Justin doesn’t matter. Yankees fan, would you rather have CC on short rest in game three or game seven?