The Cardinals and the Giants begin their NLCS Sunday night in San Francisco. Both teams overcame long odds to make it to the pennant round. The Giants lost their first two games at home, and had to sweep the Reds in Cincinnati to win. The Cardinals fell behind 6-0 early in game five against the Nationals, and chipped away at the lead until they scored four runs in the ninth, winning 9-7. Both squads established themselves as never say die teams. The Giants also had to overcome the loss of one of their best hitters, Melky Cabrera, for 1/3 of the season. Melky’s suspension is over, but the Giants will not reinstate him.

The Cardinals and Giants are fairly close offensively:

Buster Posey watches his NLDS grand slam leave the park. Photo: Frank Victores-US PRESSWIRE

It’s important to note that AT&T Ballpark hurts home runs, which is why despite trailing the Cardinals in power, the Giants are right with them in OPS plus. The Cardinals, however, are much better at working pitchers, as we saw in the NLDS. The Cardinals swing at 30.4 pitches outside the strike zone, 5th lowest in the NL. The Nationals were the highest at 33.8%, the Giants second at 33.0%. Unlike the Nationals, however, the Giants are very good at making contact on pitches outside the zone. The Cardinals will make the Giants pitchers work for every strike, and we saw how that was able to defeat a very good Nationals staff.

The Giants did not hit well in their series against the Reds, but they did hit for power with men on base. With four of their five home runs coming on the road, that may have been a function of Great American Ballpark. Busch Stadium likely won’t be as generous.

By the way, I’m looking forward to the offensive battle between Buster Posey and Carlos Beltran. Buster is the best hitter in the majors right now, and Beltran is one of the all-time great post-season hitters.

Pitching

The return of Chris Carpenter gives the Cardinals an extra ace. Photo: Joy R. Absalon-US PRESSWIRE

The pitching looks more even that it actually is due once again to the Giants home park. The Giants give up on average more home runs than the Cardinals, despite playing in a tough park for home runs. In terms of power, the Cardinals hitters matchup well against the Giants pitchers.

St. Louis will be without Jaime Garcia, but Chris Carpenter is back and solid. Having both back and healthy would make this rotation more formidable, but of the two I’ll take Carpenter.

Game four should be interesting. Tim Lincecum is scheduled against Adam Wainwright. The two battled for the Cy Young in the past, but both had difficult years, Wainwright as he recovered from surgery, Lincecum’s problems unknown. They’ll each get just one start in the series.

Prediction

St. Louis strikes me as a slightly better team than the Giants. The Cardinals underperformed most of the regular season, but their ability to keep the base paths full of runners should pay off in a tough home run park like the one in San Francisco. The Giants pitching staff isn’t what it was in 2010, when they could win by keeping the game close and hitting an extra home run. I give St. Louis a 54% chance of winning the series.