March 20, 2013

Team Offense, Boston Red Sox

Dustin Pedroia

Dustin Pedroia might end up carrying the Red Sox on his shoulders. Photo: Jerome Miron-USA TODAY Sports

The series on team offense continues with the Boston Red Sox. The Red Sox finished tied for eighth in the majors and fifth in the American League in 2012 with 4.53 runs scored per game.

The CBSSports.com projected lineup that John Farrell may use is plugged into the Lineup Analysis Tool (LAT) using Musings Marcels as the batter projections. That information produces the following results:

  • Best lineup: 5.10
  • Probable lineup: 5.02
  • Worst lineup: 4.84
  • Regressed lineup: 4.14

Farrell actually has an easy time constructing his lineup. The players are so balanced that whatever order he uses is going to score a good number of runs. There’s even a lineup in the top 20 best that uses the same top four and same bottom five players as projected. This should be a pretty good lineup, and David Ortiz isn’t included.

Ortiz, however, is just the tip of the iceberg. We don’t know if or when he will return. Jacoby Ellsbury is great when he plays, but he has trouble staying healthy. Stephen Drew suffered a concussion in spring training, and those can be extremely tricky. Even without that, Drew saw a lot of the disabled list in his career, and his genetics probably don’t help either. If the squad can stay healthy, they’ll score well enough to win.

You can follow the data for the series in this Google spreadsheet.

Previous posts in the series:

If you enjoy this series, please consider donating the the Baseball Musings Pledge Drive.

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *