March 31, 2013

2013 NL Central Preview

The division preview series continues with the NL Central. The starting point for my analysis is the 2012 WAR of the position players, the starting rotation and the closer. All WAR numbers come from FanGraphs. The Cubs and Pirates play the first game in the division early Monday afternoon.

This should be a very close race for the top spot in the division.

Cincinnati Reds

  • Position Player WAR: 24.0
  • Pitcher WAR: 17.5
  • Total: 41.5

The Reds are scary good. Every member of their position player core posted at least a two WAR in 2012. There’s probably some upside to the offensive numbers as well, since Joey Votto missed a good chunk of the season and still managed a 5.6 WAR. I love the way Shin-Soo Choo fits on this team, giving the Reds some more OBP.

Joey Votto

A healthy Joey Votto could challenge the single season doubles record. Photo: Rick Scuteri-USA TODAY Sports

The pitching is just as good, with Mike Leake the only player in the 14 man core with a WAR under two, and he comes in at 1.3 WAR. This is a rotation that ranks with the best in the league, with two aces in Johnny Cueto and Mat Latos, and two hurlers who would be #2 on many teams, Bronson Arroyo and Homer Bailey.

A key for this team will be staying healthy once again. The Reds needed just one start outside of their five-man rotation in 2012. That will be tough to repeat.

The Reds have more than enough talent to make the playoffs either as the division winner or the wild card.

St. Louis Cardinals

  • Position Player WAR: 27.4
  • Pitcher WAR: 12.8
  • Total: 40.2

As I’m going through the divisions, I’m impressed with the number of teams going into the season with 40 WAR cores. With replacement level set at about 48 wins, a 40 WAR puts a team at 88 wins without much consideration for the back of the bullpen and the bench. There’s a lot that can go wrong for a team like this, and still have them make the playoffs. This used to be the domain of the Yankees and Red Sox, but with money flooding the game, other teams are now able to build this type of core, as they no longer let their great players go early.

The Cardinals position players rate higher than the Reds, but they go about constructing the team differently. While the Reds spread out their WAR fairly evenly, the Cardinals concentrate half their WAR in three players, Yadier Molina, David Freese, and Matt Holliday. The Molina 6.2 WAR concerns me the most. He now has nine seasons of heavy duty catching under his belt. He plays 2013 as a 30-year old, and his 2012 season is an outlier given his career. Don’t be surprised to see him drop back to around a three WAR, or even further if the wear and tear of his defensive position finally catches up to him. In addition, Carlos Beltran and Matt Holliday are a year older. Decline is more likely for them. At the end of the season, I suspect the position player core will be closer to 24 WAR than 27.

The starting rotation and closer are solid but not outstanding. The could get a big boost from Adam Wainwright regaining his Cy Young form a year removed from his surgery.

This is a team that will challenge the Reds for the division title, and be in a very good place for a wild card if they finish short of the title.

Milwaukee Brewers

  • Position Player WAR: 24.2
  • Pitcher WAR: 9.5
  • Total: 33.7

The Brewers are a pitching staff away from competing for the NL Central crown. The front of the rotations is very good, with Yovani Gallardo, Kyle Lohse, and Marco Estrada. They have some upside potential as Gallardo is capable of better numbers than he posted in 2012, and young Wily Peralta gets his first full season in the majors.

The position players are very good without a real first basemen currently on the roster. Ryan Braun and Aramis Ramirez provide much of the value, but a better season from Rickie Weeks and a strong return from Corey Hart would go a long way toward making the Brewers playoff contenders.

This is a good team with some weaknesses. A wild card is certainly a possibility, and a division win if everything breaks right.

Pittsburgh Pirates

  • Position Player WAR: 17.5
  • Pitcher WAR: 7.1
  • Total: 24.6

The last two seasons, the Pirates have been a Sham:

(I still get goose bumps whenever I watch that race. In crew they call that winning by the curvature of the earth.)

What bothers me is that the Pirates, with the majors awash in money, did very little to help the team this winter. Russell Martin will likely help the pitching staff, but his offense is fading. Travis Snider might finally realize his potential, but on the other hand, the Pirates are full of players who did not realize their potential. Jonathan Sanchez certainly looked done last year. Maybe the team finally matures around Andrew McCutchen, but I’m not betting on that.

The team needs to find eight more wins just to get over .500. We’ll see what happens.

Chicago Cubs

  • Position Player WAR: 15.2
  • Pitcher WAR: 8.8
  • Total: 24.0

The thing to watch with the Cubs this season is the maturation of the core of the future, Starlin Castro, Anthony Rizzo, and Jeff Samardzija (46 points in Scrabble). There’s not a lot behind them right now, but there may be enough to catch the Pirates. I expect a better record than in 2012, but not a playoff contender. Also watch to see how the complexion of the team changes over the summer as the Cubs try to build an organization that constantly feeds talent to the major league squad.

Predictions:

Here’s how I see the probabilities of the teams winning the division:

  • Reds 36%
  • Cardinals 34%
  • Brewers 25%
  • Cubs 3%
  • Pirates 2%

For the first time in a while, I’m really down on the Pirates. I hope they prove me wrong.

1 thought on “2013 NL Central Preview

  1. Larry

    46 points in Scrabble? In the standard rules, no proper names are allowed. Luck of the Cubs!

    I suspect the Brewers are a bit underrated by WAR when they have two young strikeout pitchers in the rotation with high upside in Fiers and Peralta, and Lohse could be a huge pickup if he pitches like he did with St. Louis.

    ReplyReply

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