The Pirates shutout the Tigers Thursday night, so Miguel Cabrera failed to move his RBI total off 59. The latest simulation of the rest of his season (10,000 simulations) produces an average RBI total of 155, with a minimum of 111 RBI and a maximum of 205 RBI. Ninety five percent of the observations fall between 134 and 178 RBI. That implies the chance of Cabrera breaking the AL RBI record (184) is 0.042%, and of breaking the MLB record (191 RBI) is 0.0039%.

As you can see from the spreadsheet, his average has stabilized around 155 RBI. That would be an impressive total. I also calculated the probability of Cabrera winning the RBI title in competition with Chris Davis. Cabrera won or tied for the crown in 9,884 of the 10,000 simulations. Part of that is Cabrera’s history of batting since 2011, part of it is that Miguel projects out to over 60 more plate appearances during the rest of the season.