June 4, 2013

Dutch Treats

The island of Curacao emerged this season as the source of the next great crop of middle infielders as Andrelton Simmons, Didi Gregorius, and Jurickson Profar all made their way to the major leagues. Simmons helped the Braves stay hot down the stretch in 2012 as they won the wild card. Gregorius’s play contributed to the first place standing of the Diamondbacks in the NL West. Profar proved a valuable replacement to Ian Kinsler as the Rangers fight off the surge of the Athletics in the AL West. What does the future hold for these bright, young stars?

Jurickson  Profar

Jurickson Profar. Photo: Tim Heitman-USA TODAY Sports

With only 57 major league plate appearances, Profar’s career holds the most upside potential. Age represents the first reason for ranking him ahead of Simmons and Gregorius. Profar’s plays 2013 as a 20-year-old. His countrymen play at seasonal age 23. When a hitter comes to the majors at a very young age, he greatly increases the probability of being a regular all star, winning MVP awards, and making the Hall of Fame. It’s much easier to make the counting milestones when you start at 20 than at 23. The 20 year old needs 20 years of 150 hits to reach 3000. The 23 year old needs 17 years of 177 hits to hit the same mark.

The 20 year old also hits free agency early in his prime. Roberto Alomar and Alex Rodriguez both made big pay days as players who started early and opted for free agency as soon as possible. Signing a free agent in early or mid prime means he’s much more likely to live up to a long-term contract.

In addition, Profar posted excellent minor league numbers. He was young for A, AA, and AAA, yet posted OBPs of .390, .368, and .370 respectively. Young for the majors in 2013, his OBP stands at .350, with more power than he produced in the minors. Right now, the sky’s the limit for Jurickson.

Andrelton  Simmons

Andrelton Simmons. Photo: John E. Sokolowski-USA TODAY Sports

The call between Gregorius and Simmons is tougher. Both will play most of 2013 as 23 year olds, Gregorius a few months younger. Andrelton posted better minor league numbers, but in half the plate appearances as Didi, meaning Gregorius received more seasoning. Simmons posted a minor league slash line of .299/.352/.397. Gregorius came in at .267/.319/.375. Simmons also saw his OBP and slugging percentage increase as he moved up through each level of the minors. That’s unusual, and probably the reason he rose so quickly through the Braves system. Gregorius’s single A and double A numbers were extremely similar, with a slash line approximating .275/.330/.380.

In the majors, those numbers flipped. Gregorius owns a .359 OBP and a .474 slugging percentage so far in the big leagues, while Simmons 2013 struggles reduced his line .307/.386. It’s possible Simmons became homer happy with the big club. After hitting just six homers in his minor league career, he owns eight as a major league player. Simmons’s BABIP stands at a low .251 this season. Last year, and through his minor league career it was much closer to .300, the norm for most hitters. Simmons pops up the ball frequently, leading me to wonder if he’s trying to hit home runs, rather than just trying to make solid contact. Gregorius owns a.358 BABIP this season, hitting plenty of line drives.

Didi Gregorius

Didi Gregorius. Photo: Jennifer Hilderbrand-USA TODAY Sports

Simmons plays better defense, something that also showed up in his minor league numbers. Shortstop is primarily a defensive position, so as long as Simmons plays better than anyone else in the league, they’ll give him time to figure out his hitting.

In ranking the two, Simmons looks like his career will come out ahead of Gregorius. Minor league numbers do reflect the value of a player. The more experienced Gregorious adjusted better to the majors. Simmons adjusted well to every move up in his career, and eventually he should adjust to the majors as well. Even if Andrelton pulls even with Didi in offense, his fielding should yield the better career.

Whatever the future holds for these three rising stars, they should produce as many arguments as Nomar Garciaparra, Derek Jeter, and Alex Rodriguez did in their youth. The Braves, Diamondbacks, and Rangers will be happy if each of their rookies come close to the careers of any of the three.

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