June 20, 2013

Historic Start

Yasiel Puig played 15 games so far in his major league career with impressive numbers. His slash line stands at .474/.500/.789. He collected 27 hits in just 57 at bats, eight of those for extra bases. He’s hitting a home run about every 11 at bats, and even swiped two bases without being caught.

I wondered how this start compares to others, since his batting average is very high. I looked at all players whose careers started since 1969 (when the mound was lowered and division play started) with at least 40 AB in their first 15 games, and with a BA of at least .400:

First 15 games, Career starts from 1969 on
Player At Bats Hits Batting Avg.
Duane Kuiper 41 20 .488
Barbaro Garbey 42 20 .476
Yasiel Puig 57 27 .474
Bruce Bochte 50 23 .460
Terry Pendleton 60 27 .450
Luis Salazar 54 24 .444
Jeremy Reed 50 22 .440
Bill Mueller 41 18 .439
Josh Anderson 44 19 .432
Craig Wilson 51 22 .431
Mark Reynolds 54 23 .426
Ryan McGuire 47 20 .426
Ed Sprague 40 17 .425
Fred Lynn 43 18 .419
Coco Laboy 60 25 .417
Daniel Murphy 41 17 .415
Mike Morse 46 19 .413
Jeff Francoeur 46 19 .413
Bodhi Hart 68 28 .412
Ken Griffey Sr. 51 21 .412
Bobby Smith 49 20 .408
Dave Collins 52 21 .404
Ron Cash 40 16 .400
Kevin Stocker 55 22 .400

The list fails to impress. Fred Lynn was a superstar, Bill Mueller won a batting title, and Terry Pendelton won an MVP. Griffey, Sr. was a good hitter. The inclusion of Jeff Francoeur bothers me, however. Puig drew just one walk so far. That’s fine when a player is batting .400, but eventually pitchers will adjust to his game. He didn’t draw many walks in the minors, so if he goes the Francoeur route, he’ll end up a poor performer. The start is fun, but it’s not enough for great long-term expectations about the new Dodgers outfielder.

4 thoughts on “Historic Start

  1. M. Scott Eiland

    I’d be interested in a list that ranked by OPS more than a BA list–as Dr. Beat indirectly points out, Puig has hit six times as many HR in 66 AB as Kuiper did in 3,379 AB (Garbey managed 11 HR in 626 AB). This is a case where the initial sabermetric data (peak Barry Bonds level stats for his first three weeks in MLB) agrees with the old school evaluation (“That’s a [bleeping] five-tool player if I’ve ever seen one.”).

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  2. David Pinto Post author

    M. Scott Eiland » That’s easy enough. When Puig gets to 25 games I’ll rerun the lists. Remind me if you think of it.

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