Manny Machado doubled in the Orioles 4-3 win over the Yankees Friday night, Manny’s 37th double of the season. He’s threatening the doubles record. Based on a regression of his doubles rate, filling out his career to 1500 PA based on the AL average, he has a 2.5% chance of breaking the record. Based on Manny’s career doubles rate, that chance stands at 38%. If you believe Manny’s double rate is real, he has an excellent chance to breaking the record. If you believe teams will adjust to him as they see him more often, he still has a decent shot at the record.

Note that this is a tough record to break. The following table shows all players since 1957 with at least:

1. 34 doubles before July 1 OR
2. 34 doubles from July 1 to the end of the season OR
3. 50 doubles over an entire season

In other words, players who reached half way to the record in either half of the season, plus every 50 double season in that time frame. The list is sorted by most first half doubles.

Note that no one who hit at least 30 doubles in the first half came anywhere near repeating that in the second half. The closest was Craig Biggo who hit 25 in the second half. Note, also, that there tend to be more games played after July 1 than before July 1, although with the season starting very early in April now that split is getting closer. Garret Anderson in 2002 is the first person going down the list to have as many in the first half as the second, 28, and the same year Nomar Garciaparra hit 27-29 to tie Anderson for the league lead.

This is why I tend to believe Manny’s regression rate is closer to the truth than his current career rate. Teams adjust to players, and a full season wears down hitters as well. Some players have had great second halves. Carlos Delgado hit 36 doubles in 2000, and George Brett did the same a decade earlier. Todd Helton hit 34 in 2000, as he fell one double shy of 60 for the season.

There are two things working in Machado’s favor. The first is his youth. He’s very fast, and I suspect a 20-year-old won’t have his legs tire as easily as someone who has played a few years. On the other hand, he hasn’t had a chance to build up stamina. The other factor is that Manny is a line-drive hitter as opposed to a fly-ball slugger. Manny, for his career, and especially this season, hits the ball on a line or on the ground much more than he hits a fly. So he won’t have potential doubles going out of the park rather than scraping the wall very often.

My guess is Manny will come very close to 60 doubles, and breaking that barrier would be a worthy feat. I would set the over-under at 59. The last season to see a player with 60 doubles was 1936 when Joe Medwick hit 64 and Charlie Gehringer hit 60. Both are in the Hall of Fame.