Three players still pursue long standing records heading into the All-Star break, although the chances for one of them are fading fast. Manny Machado holds the best chance of setting one as he tries to break Earl Webb‘s single season doubles record of 67. It was a bit of an off week for Manny. He hit .290 with no walks, but hit two triples and two home runs. He did not double, however. That brings his probability of breaking the record way down from last week. There’s now an 8% chance of him breaking the record based on his career doubles rate, and a 0.4% chance of him breaking the record based on a regressed rate. Manny played every Orioles game this season, and I’m betting the All-Star break will do him some good. He leads the league in plate appearances, so he’ll get plenty of opportunities to set the record.

Chris Davis ended the pre-Break part of the season on a very strong note, hitting home runs in four consecutive games. His probabilities of the AL single season home run record are the highest they’ve been all season. His chance of tying the record stands at 0.06%, and his chance of breaking the record comes in at 0.03% That’s based on his career home run rate through 2012. Other players got off to great pre-break starts, like Reggie Jackson in 1969 and Mark McGwire in 1987, only to peter out in the second half. Both were rather new players at the time, so the league was still learning how to pitch to them. We’ll see if the more veteran Davis can keep up the pace. You can see the daily probabilities in graphic form here.

Miguel Cabrera had another great week at the plate. He collected seven hits and seven walks, hitting two home runs, scoring six times and driving in five, giving him 95 RBI for the season. Unfortunately, five RBI in seven games does not keep him on a record RBI pace. The latest run of the RBI simulator looked at 10,000 seasons from here on out, and show a minimum number of RBI for the season of 124, a maximum of 189, and 95% of the observations falling between 136 and 171 RBI. That implies a probability of break the AL RBI record (184) of 0.02% and of breaking the MLB RBI record (191) of 0.0005%. The MLB record is a real long shot, as maximum values for his RBI total every once in a while lately come in below 191. It will take a good hot streak for Miguel to get back into contention for the AL record, which is looking more and more like a long-shot as well. Chris Davis is right on Miguel’s tail with 93 RBI, trailing Cabrera by two. Miguel, with many more projected plate appearances, still owns an 89% chance of winning the RBI title.

Stay tuned.