In case you haven’t noticed, Yasiel Puig is hot again. Over his last 16 games he posted a .424 BA. In addition, he appears to be getting more selective at the plate, drawing 13 walks to go with his 25 hits in 59 at bats. He raised his batting average from .364 to .379.
So can Puig hit .400? The Dodgers played 60 games since Puig’s arrival, and based on his rate of AB and PA over those games, he projects to 399 AB and 446 PA for the season, 175 AB and 196 PA over the final 47 games. To hit .400, 160 for 399, Puig would need another 75 hits. That’s a tall order. A few weeks ago I estimated Puig’s intrinsic BA at about .310. If that’s true, the probability of him going 75 for 175 is .0006, or 3 in 50,000. If he’s actually a .370 hitter, then he actually has a chance, a probability of 0.064, or 6.4%.
If Puig can’t hit .400, can he win a batting title? A total of 446 PA would leave him 56 PA short of qualifying for the batting title. As Tony Gwynn demonstrated in 1996, you don’t need to reach 502 PA to win a batting title. If a player is short, you add in the remaining PA as at bats, and figure the new average. If it’s above the highest BA by a qualifier, you win!
Chris Johnson currently leads the NL batting race with a .338 BA. Let’s say it will take a .335 BA to win the batting title. Adding in 56 AB to Puig’s 399 estimate would mean he would need enough hits for a .335 BA in 455 at bats. That would take 153 hits, or another 68 in his last 175 at bats. If you see Puig as having an intrinsic .310 hitter, the probability of him going 68/175 is .016, or 1.6%. If you see him as a .370 hitter, then he has a probability of .33 of going 68/175, or 33%!
So while hitting .400 for the season is a huge long shot, Puig would appear to have a read chance of winning a batting title. It will probably take a ton of luck, but Puig could have gone into a deep slump as pitchers adjusted to him. Instead, he adjusted back, and once again is hitting like one of the greats. I can imagine him hitting .383 for the season, and that average giving him a big enough lead to win the batting title.
I’d love to see him win the hitting* title without getting to 502 PA. That’s such a cool thought. And if he can pull off a .400 BA, I wonder if we’ll suddenly see more batters with higher BA’s over the next few years. Once the psychological block is shattered, it’s possible players will start doing it again. Sorta like the 4 minute mile barrier.
* – I recently decided to stop referring to the BA title as the batting title, ’cause there is a difference between hitting (which is all BA really measures) & batting (working to get on base any way you can).