September 5, 2013

Dodgers Turnaround

The Dodgers stood 12 games under .500 through games of June 21st. They were 30-42 in last place in the NL West, 9 1/2 games out of first (Arizona was in first). They trailed the Cardinals by 16 games for best record in the National League. While they held a better batting average than their opponents at that time, they did not measure up in OBP or slugging:

Through 6/21/2013 Dodgers Opponents
Batting Average .256 .255
On-Base Average .321 .324
Slugging Average .375 .390

After that date, the Dodgers dominated their opponents in all three categories.

Through 6/22 to 9/4/2013 Dodgers Opponents
Batting Average .280 .234
On-Base Average .340 .284
Slugging Average .417 .343

The batters basically started collecting hits more frequently with a bit more power, while the pitching staff shutdown free passes and home runs. There’s more to it than that, however. After all, the Dodgers had a 22 game turnaround in the division, and are two games away from the best record in the National league, 39 games over .500 since they hit bottom.

The more to it is situational hitting. Note that the difference in batting stats wasn’t all that great early in the season, unless you look at situational hitting:

Through 6/21/2013, RISP Dodgers Opponents
Batting Average .235 .267
On-Base Average .316 .367
Slugging Average .321 .402

If you will, the Dodgers were not clutch on either side of the ball.

Through 6/22 to 9/4/2013, RISP Dodgers Opponents
Batting Average .284 .211
On-Base Average .359 .277
Slugging Average .420 .272

In the second half, the hitters maintained their overall averages, while the pitchers simply shutdown the opposition with runners in scoring position. Due to their situational stats, the Dodgers looked worse through June 21st than their talent level, and they’ve looked better than their talent level since. This has to be one of the greatest examples of luck turning around in a short time frame that I’ve seen.

The Dodgers also did a good job of losing the pitchers who were causing trouble. Look at the list of pitchers with at least 20 innings through 6/21, and the list since. The only person still around from the high ERA end is Brandon League, whose role was reduced. Kenley Jansen took over, and he has been lights out. We’ll see if this great run continues into October.

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