In case you missed it yesterday, MusingsMarcels are up for 2014. This spreadsheet if for the 634 players who were primarily batters in 2013. These are based on Tom Tango’s Marcel the Monkey projection method.
With the numbers in let’s look at some rankings. Marcels has Chris Davis once again leading the majors in home runs, with Jay Bruce and Giancarlo Stanton tied atop the NL.
In the race for the batting title, Miguel Cabrera beats out Mike Trout in the AL and in the majors, while Ryan Braun and Yasiel Puig tie for the NL lead. Marcels have Puig with a .308/.379/.503 slash line.
Miguel Cabrera gets the nod for the RBI crown in the AL and the majors, with Paul Goldschmidt winning it again the NL. Since Cabrera is listed as second in the AL in home runs, Marcels give him a pretty good chance of competing for another triple crown in 2014.
The on-base percentage crown goes to Joey Votto at .422, with Miguel Cabrera beating Mike Trout in the AL .412 to .411. Remember, Mike does not have three full seasons behind him yet. Trout’s slash line comes in at .321/.411/.546, so he should make another run at an MVP.
The high slugging percentage goes to Miguel Cabrera at .584, with Ryan Braun taking the NL title at .547.
Run scoring goes to Trout with 105, and it’s not close. Justin Upton and Matt Carpenter top the NL list with 90 each.
Trout also tops the hits list with 171, and for Mets fans, Daniel Murphy tops the NL hit chart with 165.
Matt Carpenter tops the doubles column with 40, Robinson Cano leads the AL with 38. Interestingly, although Robinson posts good doubles totals from year to year, he’s never led the league in the category. He needs 25 more to reach 400 for his career.
Starling Marte and Austin Jackson top the leagues in triples. This is, of course, a very tough category to call, but they seem like very good bets to be near the top of the leader boards.
The free pass winners look to be Joey Votto in the NL and Carlos Santana in the AL. Carlos walked over 90 times in each of the last three seasons.
The most bruised player go to Shin-Soo Choo and Starling Marte in the NL, and Daniel Nava in the AL. Getting hit by a pitch is a great skill for a lead-off hitter, provided they avoid injury.
The strikeout kings appear to be Adam Dunn, barley beating out Chris Davis in the AL, and Pedro Alvarez in the NL. No surprises there.
Of the big name free agents, Robinson Cano projects to a .303/.366/.516 slash line, rather valuable for a second baseman. Shin-Soo Choo comes in at .275/.381/.432, great for the top of the order. Jacoby Ellsbury projects to .294/.348/.446, but there is a lot of variability in Jacoby’s career. Curtis Granderson is also a bit of a wild card, with a projection of .242/.330/.469. He’s the kind of player a Moneyball team might grab if there is not a lot of money on the table. He walks a lot and hits home runs.
Feel free to download the spreadsheet and play with the numbers!
This Cabrera vs Trout thing is really becoming a yearly thing. That’s so awesome.
Devon » Reminds me of Pujols vs. Bonds ten years ago.
I suspect that Braun will find himself a few milligrams short of any batting crowns this year. ]:-)
Hey David,
I’ve been trying to play around with the Marcel formula, but I can’t figure out how the age adjustment is applied. Can you help?
Bryan Cole » Yes. You go through the whole calculation. That produces a number, say 72.1. Mutiply that by the age factor. So a young player might have 1.05 as their age factor, indicating they should be getting better. That makes the final value for that stat 75.7, round to 76. For older players, it might be .98, reducing their value to 69.58, or 70.
“I suspect that Braun will find himself a few milligrams short of any batting crowns this year. ]:-)”
Braun didn’t use anything in 2012, and he put up MVP caliber numbers. Hell, before he hurt his thumb in 2013, he was putting up monster numbers again. 41 games into the season (about 1/4 of the year), Braun was batting .326 with 8 HR and 28 RBI. His slash line was .414/.582/.995. His OPS in 2012 was .987, and in 2011 it was .994. Over his last 4 full seasons, he’s hitting .318. So why wouldn’t he contend for a batting title? You seriously think that rubbing a little cream on an injured calf muscle turned Ryan Braun into a .312 career hitter? Ah, no. He’s an incredible hitter, and has been since he made it to the Majors. Everybody said “well, he’ll suck in 2012, because he doesn’t have PEDs in his system”. .319 AVG 41 HR 112 RBI and 30 SB…ya, he really sucked.