October 23, 2013

The Relentless Series

Gauging the general mood across the internet baseball sphere, the World Series between the Cardinals and the Red Sox doesn’t inspire much interest outside of their fandom. I do enjoy seeing new blood in the series. No matter the outcome of the 2013 battle, three teams will have won seven of the last ten World Series.

I suspect that people who tune out due to the teams involved are going to miss something special. For the first time since 1995, the teams with the best records in each league meet in the World Series. Both teams led their respective leagues in runs scored, and rank about the same in their leagues in run prevention (St. Louis 5th in the NL, Boston 6th in the AL). In other words, two great, evenly matched teams are headed into a best of seven series.

What will make this series compelling is the impression that the offenses are relentless. The leads against them don’t matter, nor does the timing of the lead. These teams keep finding a way to put men on base, so when the big hit comes, it does damage. When they get shutdown by good pitching, they manage to pop a ball out of the park to put a run on the board.

This constant pressure, even when the offense isn’t going well, takes a toll on the opposition pitchers. The starters throw more pitches than intended, and the earlier an offense can get to the bullpen, the more likely they’ll find a pitcher having a bad day. These games are not going to be short, but I expect most of them to be intense.

The series offers some interesting story line. The first is Yadier Molina against the Red Sox base stealers. Boston succeeded 87% of the time trying to steal a base. Cardinals opponents stole at a 60% clip, the lowest in the NL. Boston’s offense doesn’t need the stolen base, but the threat can rattle some pitchers.

The second is Boston base runners versus Matt Holliday‘s arm. Playing leftfield in Boston should help Matt, as he never has to play that deep. The Red Sox might try to make up for the reduction in stealing with more chances on hard-hit balls off the wall. Often, those are singles, but if Holliday can’t throw that well, the faster runners should try to turn those into doubles.

Carlos Beltran, one of the great post-season hitters, finally makes an appearance in the World Series. He comes into this series with a .337/.449/.724 slash line in post-season play, and thanks to the high OBP, scored 44 runs in 45 games. Of his 55 hits, 30 have gone for extra bases.

The Cardinals RISP machine was slowed, but not stopped, in the first two rounds of the playoffs. Allen Craig returns for the World Series, and he is a huge part of the Cardinals success in that category.

Second base represents a huge strength for both teams. Matt Carpenter and Dustin Pedroia both hit for average, do a great job of getting on base, and record a ton of doubles.

I would love to see St. Louis do something to counter the beards. Maybe they’ll all shave their heads. 🙂

As for a prediction, the Red Sox offense is slightly better. With the status of Clay Buchholz up in the air, the St. Louis pitching is slightly better. Boston gets a slight edge with home field advantage, but my feeling is you should flip a coin and enjoy what could be a series for the ages.

5 thoughts on “The Relentless Series

  1. Devon

    It’s like an old fashioned pre-division World Series! I hadn’t noticed that. Also, it’s a rematch of ’67… which just adds a little extra excitement to me.

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  2. Ed

    The muted reaction is likely due to the 2004 World Series, which except for Red Sox fans left a bad taste in everyone’s mouth. On paper, the matchup should have been excellent, like the current World Series. The reality was the most lopsided series in the history of the event. People remember getting burned by that one and have kept low expectations.

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  3. Jeff A

    I hope people give it a chance. It’s not the series I’d have preferred, but if people just want to see good ball, I think there’s a chance we’ll see a lot of it.

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  4. Pingback: World Series Game One | Elysian Fields

  5. Devon

    oohh thanks Ed, I don’t know how the ’04 series slipped my memory. It was pretty forgettable in terms of awesome moments besides the Red Sox finally “breaking the curse”.

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