March 21, 2014

Team Offense, San Francisco Giants

The series on team offense continues with the San Francisco Giants. The Giants finished twenty first in the majors and tenth in the National League in 2013 with 3.88 runs scored per game.

The CBSSports.com projected lineup that Bruce Bochy may use is plugged into the Lineup Analysis Tool (LAT) using Musings Marcels as the batter projections. For the pitchers, the actual numbers from 2013 were used. That information produces the following results:

  • Best lineup: 4.56
  • Probable lineup: 4.32
  • Worst lineup: 3.94
  • Regressed lineup: 3.96

Bochy’s line-up looks good, although the LAT doesn’t agree with it much. He groups his high OBP hitters together well, although I would probably bat Angel Pagan seventh and move everyone else up one slot. That would put Buster Posey third in the lineup and guarantee he would bat in the first innings.

Mike Morse sits right where he should be behind the better OBP hitters. With most of his value coming from his power, Morse is better at the end of an offensive series than trying to start one. He could end up with quite a few RBI this year if he stays healthy, as he should come up with a ton of men on base.

The Giants might end up less dependent on their pitching this season, a more balanced team. That would make their third world title in five years a bit more likely.

You can follow the data for the series in this Google spreadsheet.

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