The division continues with the NL East. I try to get a handle on the wins for the core of the team. That includes the starting position players, the starting rotation, and the closer. I use a combination of the STATS, Inc. depth charts and the CBSSports depth charts, along with news stories to determine those groups. For wins, I use FanGraphs WAR from 2013, making conservative guesses for players not in the majors in 2013. As a rule of thumb, add 50 to the core WAR to get to a season win level. You can see the spreadsheet with the data here.

Atlanta Braves

• Position Player WAR: 19.6
• Starters and Closer: 10.2
• Core Total: 29.8

I’m a bit surprised at the low core total for the Braves. While they lost Kris Medlen and Brandon Beachy for the season to injuries, Ervin Santana and Aaron Harang combined for similar WARs in 2013. Of course, the plan was to find replacements for Tim Hudson and Mike Minor, who combined for over five WAR in 2013. Replacing two other good pitchers on top of that was a difficult task. Alex Wood offers them some upside, however. His three true outcomes were very good in the minors.

I have a feeling the Braves will miss Brian McCann as well. I know that Evan Gattis is a fan favorite, but he is an out machine. Along with B.J. Upton and Dan Uggla, Gattis gives the Braves three holes in the starting lineup. There’s not much the Braves can to do address those issues at this point, except hope that Upton and Uggla bounce back.

I believe a division repeat will be difficult for this team. On top of everything else, they were seven games over .500 in one run decisions, and that kind of performance tends to revert to the mean quickly.

Washington Nationals

• Position Player WAR: 23.7
• Starters and Closer: 16.4
• Core Total: 40.1

The Nationals own the highest position player and pitching cores in the division, and yet there is upside with this team. Jayson Werth and Bryce Harper combined for 8.4 WAR in 2013, each playing just 3/4 of the season, Harper with a bad knee. Harper is still very young for an every day starter, so if he stays healthy the sky’s the limit. Adam La Roche posted an off year, and Anthony Rendon played just 2/3 of a season.

On the pitching side, Stephen Strasburg has yet to put everything together, but even if he, Gio Gonzalez and Jordan Zimmermann all post 3 WARs, the Nats will win. The biggest threat for a down side is the injury to Doug Fister. Ross Detwiler gives them a solid replacement, however, and Tanner Roark should build on an excellent first fifty innings in the majors.

Of course, last season the Nationals were picked by many to win the World Series, and pretty much everything went wrong. All the good luck of 2012 turned bad last season. Maybe this will be the neutral luck season when they do exactly as expected, win the division, and go on to bigger things.

New York Mets

• Position Player WAR: 10.9
• Starters and Closer: 9.2
• Core Total: 20.1

The Mets and Cubs strike me as very similar. The front offices have the reputation of being great builders, making something happen where that others can’t see happening. These two organizations seem to be going nowhere, however.

In the Mets case, that’s not all the front office’s fault. Losing Matt Harvey for the season is a blow most teams could not handle. What I don’t understand is why the team continues to populate the roster with players like Ike Davis, Eric Young, and Chris Young, who have shown over time their lack of talent at the major league level.

Maybe youngsters Jenrry Mejia, Travis d’Arnaud, and Zack Wheeler will all impress us in 2014. But the Mets core is probably 15 WAR away from competing, and all three combining to do that well is not very likely.

Philadelphia Phillies

• Position Player WAR: 12.5
• Starters and Closer: 16.2
• Core Total: 28.7

The Phillies pitching core matches well with the Washington pitching core. Like the Nationals, one of their top starters, Cole Hamels, is suffering an injury with an inconclusive return date. Head to head, we should see some great pitching duels between these two teams.

The position players are a different story. The veteran core of Jimmy Rollins, Ryan Howard, and Chase Utley can’t carry the team any more. Carlos Ruiz declined in 2013, and Cody Asche doesn’t have minor league numbers that might lead to greatness. The Phillies will need to win a ton of low scoring games to compete this season.

Miami Marlins

• Position Player WAR: 9.2
• Starters and Closer: 9.9
• Core Total: 19.1

The trick for the Marlins would be to surround Giancarlo Stanton and Jose Fernandez with decent talent so those two could carry the team into contention. Instead, they added two players who missed all of 2013 with injuries, Rafael Furcal and Casey McGehee. The team still has holes, but if things do break right, I can seem them finishing ahead of the Mets.

Probability of winning the division

• Washington 60%
• Braves 20%
• Phillies 15%
• Marlins 3%
• Mets 2%

The division is Washington’s to lose.