A couple of weeks ago I posted a bit about Dr. Carl Morris of Harvard, who had created a new runs formula. Dr. Morris has more information, including a short paper that explains the formula, and a calculator that let's you use it. Dr. Morris is writing a longer paper that will present a proof of his formula, which will be found on the above web site when it's done.

In reading the short paper, I see the gist of his argument, but he makes a lot of simplifying assumptions. This is usually the case when you work with lots of conditional probabilities. I'm also interested in why he only considers the cases of three men reaching base in an inning? I wonder if this really means 3 men reaching at once, since this is the most you can have on base. As I hear more, I'll keep you posted.