This has been the most predictable division over the last five seasons. Each year has seen the same finish; Yankees, Red Sox, Blue Jays, Orioles and Devil Rays. I think that will change this year.

• Orioles: Yuck. Here's the career OBA and Slugging Percentage for the project Orioles lineup on CBS Sportsline:
  
  
  
  
  
  
  
  
  
  
  
  

  Slot	OBA	Slugging
  1	.320	.365
  2	.329	.376
  3	.331	.416
  4	.350	.453
  5	.307	.481
  6	.308	.472
  7	.343	.449
  8	.282	.358
  9	.294	.386

  
  This is just pathetic. B.J. Surhoff is batting third! The Orioles have financial resources, yet they have not been able to lure good free agents nor build up the farm system.

  One pitcher to watch is B.J. Ryan. He's a lefty who reminds me of Ted Lilly a couple of years ago. He has good strikeout numbers, but gives up too many walks and HR. If he can get those under control, I think he would be an effective closer. If nothing else, the Orioles have cornered the market on B.J.'s. :-)
  



• Red Sox: The Red Sox number nine hitter is projected to be Jason Varitek. He has a career .335 OBA and a .427 career slugging percentage. That's better than most of the players on the Orioles. Number 8 will be Trot Nixon, who's at .359 and .476 for his career. This is a good offense. A very, very good offense. 1998 Yankees good. The Red Sox were third in the league in runs scored last year, and they have improved their weakest two spots, 1st and 2nd base. I would not be surprised if Boston scores over 900 runs this year. If that happens, the pitching staff would need about a 4.04 ERA for a .600 winning percentage. (You can do the math, but it falls out from the Pythagorean Method.) So the pitchers can have their ERA go up over a quarter of a run from last year, and still win nearly 100 games.

  Pedro can easily be 20 games over .500 with this team. If so, the rest of the staff only needs to be 18 games over to reach 100 wins. And the rest of the starters and bullpen look good enough to do that.

  As for closer by committee, if the Sox offense is as good as I think it is, there aren't going to be many close games. That puts a lot less pressure on the relief staff. The Sox and the Yankees were much closer than last year's standings indicate. Bad luck caused the gap. Boston has improved, and I expect that gap between the teams to disappear entirely.
  



• New York Yankees: The Yankees, once again, are the Yankees. They are an offensive powerhouse. Matsui fills the hole left by the retirement of Paul O'Neill. Nick Johnson, the Yankees #9 hitter, despite hand problems, had a good spring. Williams should move to the top of the lineup and Soriano to cleanup, but they are just going to score a lot of runs.

  And they will need them. The Yankees staff was 2nd in the AL last year in strikeouts. With the Yankees poor defense, it's important for the staff to do that again. As shown in last year's ALDS, the way to beat the Yankees is to put the ball in play up the middle. Soriano and Jeter have limited range, and Williams often turns balls into an adventure. This is the Yankees achilles heel. If you try to out power them, the Yankees pitchers will strike you out. But if you just meet the ball and put it in play, you'll nip at them and score runs. The Yankees did nothing to address their defensive failings, and that is likely to cost them.
  



• Tamp Bay Devil Rays: Two of the most disappointing hitters of the last five years are Travis Lee and Ben Grieve. Each came to the majors with great expectations, and neither has come close to living up to those. Both however, have had good springs. Maybe Lou Piniella is the task master they need. If this improvement continues, coupled with the Rays bringing along some young players, their offense will be better than Baltimore's.

  The pitching, on the other hand, is a complete unknown, and probably not very good. If the offensive improvement is there, however, I expect the DRays to have their best season ever, and maybe even finish out of the celler.
  



• Toronto Blue Jays: The Toronto bullpen is stocked with pitchers who can get a strikeout when needed; Escobar, Creek and Politte. I expect the Blue Jays to use the pen extensively, as it's their biggest strength.

  The offense isn't bad. They have two excellent players in Stewart and Delgado. But it's not a great offense either. The Blue Jays are like Goldilocks favorite porridge, not too hot or cold. And once again, in third place.
  

So, for the moment of truth. I think the Red Sox are going to win the division. They have improved more than the Yankees have, and they were very close to them last year. The Yankees have not addressed their most glaring weakness on defense, and their pitchers are old. I would not be surprised to see lots of injuries in NY this year, and it's already started with Rivera and Karsay. It's the Red Sox year in the east. Toronto will once again finish third, but I giving the nod to the Devil Rays for fourth over the hapless offense of the Orioles.