Baseball Musings
Baseball Musings
September 22, 2003
Range Rankings

In my original post on the probabilistic model of range, I ranked teams based on the ratio of balls turned into outs to expected outs. I didn't really like that, but again, I was in a hurry on Friday.

One of the nice things about long bike rides is that you can think about these things, and I decide what I was really doing was figuring out expected and actual DERs, and I could just rank teams by the difference. So here's the data (updated through yesterday) ranked by difference in DER.

TeamExpected OutsExpected DERActual OutsActual DERDER Difference
Mariners 2931.0 0.703 3001.0 0.720 0.01678
Phillies 2892.0 0.687 2958.0 0.703 0.01568
Cardinals 3064.6 0.685 3125.0 0.698 0.01350
Dodgers 2649.5 0.696 2690.0 0.706 0.01063
Angels 2946.9 0.693 2982.0 0.701 0.00825
Braves 2998.1 0.689 3032.0 0.697 0.00778
Expos 2938.5 0.684 2969.0 0.691 0.00711
Padres 2844.9 0.688 2874.0 0.695 0.00704
White Sox 2849.5 0.694 2878.0 0.701 0.00694
Reds 3045.3 0.681 3068.0 0.686 0.00507
Astros 2838.3 0.698 2858.0 0.703 0.00483
Brewers 2990.4 0.680 3010.0 0.685 0.00445
Royals 3059.0 0.688 3078.0 0.692 0.00427
Orioles 2979.8 0.683 2985.0 0.684 0.00120
Cubs 2658.7 0.689 2661.0 0.690 0.00060
Marlins 2869.1 0.690 2871.0 0.691 0.00046
Indians 3098.7 0.698 3094.0 0.697 -0.00106
Athletics 3007.5 0.716 3000.0 0.714 -0.00178
Twins 3099.8 0.702 3089.0 0.700 -0.00244
Giants 2966.0 0.710 2955.0 0.708 -0.00263
Rockies 3060.2 0.681 3048.0 0.679 -0.00272
Devil Rays 3080.4 0.708 3068.0 0.705 -0.00285
Tigers 3170.8 0.691 3140.0 0.685 -0.00672
Mets 3012.5 0.694 2982.0 0.687 -0.00704
Blue Jays 3009.1 0.688 2975.0 0.680 -0.00780
Rangers 3007.0 0.688 2954.0 0.676 -0.01212
Diamondbacks 2840.2 0.705 2784.0 0.691 -0.01393
Pirates 3162.3 0.706 3092.0 0.690 -0.01568
Red Sox 3012.4 0.701 2939.0 0.683 -0.01706
Yankees 3012.6 0.695 2935.0 0.677 -0.01791

I like this ranking better. It's a good starting point to start looking at individual positions and fielders on a team.


Posted by David Pinto at 10:33 PM | Defense | TrackBack (0)