September 22, 2003
Range Rankings
In my original post on the probabilistic model of range, I ranked teams based on the ratio of balls turned into outs to expected outs. I didn't really like that, but again, I was in a hurry on Friday.
One of the nice things about long bike rides is that you can think about these things, and I decide what I was really doing was figuring out expected and actual DERs, and I could just rank teams by the difference. So here's the data (updated through yesterday) ranked by difference in DER.
Team | Expected Outs | Expected DER | Actual Outs | Actual DER | DER Difference |
Mariners | 2931.0 | 0.703 | 3001.0 | 0.720 | 0.01678 |
Phillies | 2892.0 | 0.687 | 2958.0 | 0.703 | 0.01568 |
Cardinals | 3064.6 | 0.685 | 3125.0 | 0.698 | 0.01350 |
Dodgers | 2649.5 | 0.696 | 2690.0 | 0.706 | 0.01063 |
Angels | 2946.9 | 0.693 | 2982.0 | 0.701 | 0.00825 |
Braves | 2998.1 | 0.689 | 3032.0 | 0.697 | 0.00778 |
Expos | 2938.5 | 0.684 | 2969.0 | 0.691 | 0.00711 |
Padres | 2844.9 | 0.688 | 2874.0 | 0.695 | 0.00704 |
White Sox | 2849.5 | 0.694 | 2878.0 | 0.701 | 0.00694 |
Reds | 3045.3 | 0.681 | 3068.0 | 0.686 | 0.00507 |
Astros | 2838.3 | 0.698 | 2858.0 | 0.703 | 0.00483 |
Brewers | 2990.4 | 0.680 | 3010.0 | 0.685 | 0.00445 |
Royals | 3059.0 | 0.688 | 3078.0 | 0.692 | 0.00427 |
Orioles | 2979.8 | 0.683 | 2985.0 | 0.684 | 0.00120 |
Cubs | 2658.7 | 0.689 | 2661.0 | 0.690 | 0.00060 |
Marlins | 2869.1 | 0.690 | 2871.0 | 0.691 | 0.00046 |
Indians | 3098.7 | 0.698 | 3094.0 | 0.697 | -0.00106 |
Athletics | 3007.5 | 0.716 | 3000.0 | 0.714 | -0.00178 |
Twins | 3099.8 | 0.702 | 3089.0 | 0.700 | -0.00244 |
Giants | 2966.0 | 0.710 | 2955.0 | 0.708 | -0.00263 |
Rockies | 3060.2 | 0.681 | 3048.0 | 0.679 | -0.00272 |
Devil Rays | 3080.4 | 0.708 | 3068.0 | 0.705 | -0.00285 |
Tigers | 3170.8 | 0.691 | 3140.0 | 0.685 | -0.00672 |
Mets | 3012.5 | 0.694 | 2982.0 | 0.687 | -0.00704 |
Blue Jays | 3009.1 | 0.688 | 2975.0 | 0.680 | -0.00780 |
Rangers | 3007.0 | 0.688 | 2954.0 | 0.676 | -0.01212 |
Diamondbacks | 2840.2 | 0.705 | 2784.0 | 0.691 | -0.01393 |
Pirates | 3162.3 | 0.706 | 3092.0 | 0.690 | -0.01568 |
Red Sox | 3012.4 | 0.701 | 2939.0 | 0.683 | -0.01706 |
Yankees | 3012.6 | 0.695 | 2935.0 | 0.677 | -0.01791 |
I like this ranking better. It's a good starting point to start looking at individual positions and fielders on a team.
Posted by David Pinto at
10:33 PM
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